Elche vs Real Madrid Previsione

La Liga · Regular Season - 6

Post on X

Real Madrid

Away

Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

Previsione AI Real Madrid vince o pareggia

10%

16%

74%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Elche vs Real Madrid: Sportiko assegna a Elche una probabilità di vittoria del 10%, a Real Madrid del 74% e al pareggio del 16%. Ultimo aggiornamento 15 Sep 2026, 21:29.

Pronostici Premium

Premium

Away 2H Over 0.5 73%
1st Half Home or Away 73%
Oltre 2.5 Gol 72%

Gli utenti Premium avevano questi pronostici prima del calcio d'inizio. Vedi le analisi Premium

Match Report

Real Madrid made a commanding start at Elche, taking a two-goal lead into the break. An own goal from Matías Dituro opened the scoring in the 25th minute, before Kylian Mbappé added a third for the visitors eight minutes later. The hosts had struggled to contain Madrid's attacking threat despite enjoying spells of pressure, finishing the half with the majority of shots but little to show for them.

Elche responded after the interval and made it a contest through second-half goals from Abiel Osorio (71') and Fernando Niño (83'), cutting the deficit to one and setting up a tense finale. Carlos Espí added a third for the hosts deep into stoppage time, though it proved too late to salvage a point. Real Madrid's double substitution wave in the 68th minute, which saw Vinícius Júnior and Arda Güler withdrawn, reflected an attempt to manage the game.

Despite Elche's late flurry — they registered 20 total shots across the match — Real Madrid held on for a 3–2 victory. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Madrid win as most likely at 74%, a call that proved correct as the away side claimed all three points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 4'

Yan Diomande Yellow Card

⚽ 0–1 25'

Matías Dituro Own Goal

Marc Aguado Yellow Card

31' ▮

⚽ 0–2 33'

Kylian Mbappé assist: Yan Diomande

HT 0–2

Marc Aguado ⇄ Lucas Cepeda

58' ⇄

Germán Valera ⇄ Thomas Lemar

58' ⇄

⇄ 68'

Vinícius Júnior ⇄ Brahim Díaz

⇄ 68'

Arda Güler ⇄ Jude Bellingham

Buba Sangare ⇄ Rubén Sánchez

68' ⇄

Martim Neto ⇄ Fernando Niño

68' ⇄

Abiel Osorio assist: Lucas Cepeda

71' ⚽ 1–2

▮ 73'

Ibrahima Konaté Yellow Card

Lucas Cepeda Yellow Card

78' ▮

Tete Morente ⇄ Josan

80' ⇄

Fernando Niño assist: Josan

83' ⚽ 2–2

⇄ 86'

Aurélien Tchouaméni ⇄ Endrick

⇄ 87'

Trent Alexander-Arnold ⇄ Carlos Espí

⚽ 2–3 90+1'

Carlos Espí assist: Kylian Mbappé

⇄ 90+2'

Yan Diomande ⇄ D. Dumfries

Josan Yellow Card

90+3' ▮

Gonzalo Villar Yellow Card

90+4' ▮

FT 2–3

Elche

Match Stats

Real Madrid

56% Ball Possession 44%

11 Total Shots 20

3 Shots on Goal 4

6 Shots off Goal 11

2 Blocked Shots 5

7 Shots insidebox 15

4 Shots outsidebox 5

2 Corner Kicks 5

1 Offsides 5

21 Fouls 8

4 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

2 Goalkeeper Saves 1

544 Total passes 430

493 Passes accurate 384

7 Free Kicks 21

Elche

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
14 Fernando Niño F	7.9	22'	1	–	1	5 (5%)	–
24 Abiel Osorio F	7.7	90'	1	–	4	19 (14%)	–
12 Gonzalo Villar M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	60 (56%)	4
18 Thomas Lemar M	6.6	32'	–	–	–	32 (32%)	2
5 Federico Redondo D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	53 (52%)	4
21 Lucas Cepeda F	6.5	32'	–	1	–	22 (20%)	–
23 Víctor Chust D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	99 (92%)	3
16 Martim Neto M	6.3	68'	–	–	2	40 (35%)	–
8 Marc Aguado M	6.2	58'	–	–	–	31 (29%)	–
20 Tete Morente M	6.2	80'	–	–	3	19 (18%)	–
3 Roy Revivo D	6.1	90'	–	–	–	56 (49%)	–
1 Matías Dituro G	6.0	90'	–	–	–	50 (42%)	–
2 Buba Sangare D	6.0	68'	–	–	–	21 (17%)	1
22 Rubén Sánchez D	5.9	22'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	2
11 Germán Valera M	5.8	58'	–	–	1	18 (15%)	1
17 Josan M	5.7	10'	–	1	–	6 (5%)	–

Real Madrid

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Kylian Mbappé F	8.8	90'	1	1	4	38 (33%)	1
19 Carlos Espí F	7.8	3'	1	–	2	2 (2%)	–
25 Yan Diomande M	7.4	92'	–	1	1	29 (20%)	2
12 Trent Alexander-Arnold D	7.4	87'	–	–	1	37 (32%)	1
15 Arda Güler M	7.2	68'	–	–	3	26 (25%)	–
4 Dean Huijsen D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	51 (49%)	1
17 Marc Cucurella D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	44 (38%)	2
8 Federico Valverde M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	42 (38%)	1
9 Endrick F	6.5	4'	–	–	1	–	–
14 Aurélien Tchouaméni M	6.5	86'	–	–	–	42 (40%)	2
7 Vinícius Júnior M	6.4	68'	–	–	5	17 (13%)	1
16 Ibrahima Konaté D	6.4	90'	–	–	1	56 (52%)	–
5 Jude Bellingham M	6.3	22'	–	–	1	10 (9%)	–
21 Brahim Díaz M	6.2	22'	–	–	–	9 (9%)	–
1 Thibaut Courtois G	6.1	90'	–	–	–	27 (24%)	–

Premium

Sblocca l'analisi completa dell'AI su Elche vs Real Madrid

Tutti i 70+ mercati di probabilità
Report di analisi approfondita AI
Value Edge — modello vs mercato
Tipologie di esito che scegli

Passa a Premium

Confidence High (74%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Real Madrid vince o pareggia

Most likely score

0:2 · 9.6%

Both teams to score

59%

Over 2.5 goals

72%

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Elche

WLDLL

Real Madrid

LWWWL

Last 3 meetings Elche · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

In this La Liga matchup, Elche faces Real Madrid, a team with a strong offensive record, averaging 2.5 goals per match this season. Elche has struggled defensively, conceding over 1.8 goals per game, which could be a significant disadvantage. Real Madrid's possession-based style, coupled with their high pressing, is likely to exploit Elche's weaknesses. Additionally, Real Madrid's key players, including their top scorer, will be crucial in breaking down Elche's defense. Overall, the outcome will heavily depend on Elche's ability to shore up their backline against a relentless Madrid attack.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Real Madrid goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3	6	10	9	7	4
1	1	7	9	9	6	4
2	1	3	4	4	3	2
3		1	1	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Elche goals · most likely 0–2 (9.6%)

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Players in form

Elche

Fer Niño 5 gls

Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé 7 gls

J. Bellingham 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Perché questa scelta? · Premium AI Deep-Dive · Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.

Unlock all models

Match Result

Away Win

74%

Draw

16%

Home Win

10%

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

97%

10%

1.5

90%

28%

2.5

72%

50%

3.5

50%

71%

4.5

29%

87%

5.5

13%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Home or Draw

Premium

Match Result

Away Win

74%

Draw

16%

Home Win

10%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Home or Draw

Premium

Winner

89% Away (No Draw) 11% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

54% Away Win by 2+ 3% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

74% Away Scores More 16% Equal Goals 10% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

97%

10%

1.5

90%

28%

2.5

72%

50%

3.5

50%

71%

4.5

29%

87%

5.5

13%

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Exact Goals

18%

22%

21%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

Premium

3-5 Goals

Premium

1-3 Goals

Premium

4-6 Goals

Premium

2-3 Goals

Premium

1-2 Goals

Premium

Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

Premium

BTTS & Over 3.5

Premium

BTTS & Under 3.5

Premium

Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Draw & Over 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

Premium

Home/Away & Over 2.5

Premium

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

Premium

Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.2%	5.8%	9.6%	9.2%	6.6%
1	1.4%	7.2%	9.2%	8.9%	6.4%
2	1.1%	3.1%	4.4%	4.3%	3.1%
3	0.3%	1.0%	1.4%	1.4%	1.0%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

Premium

1st Half Draw

Premium

1st Half Home Win

Premium

1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

Premium

1st Half Home or Away

Premium

1st Half Home or Draw

Premium

1h Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

40%

1.5

60%

68%

2.5

32%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

Premium

1h Exact Goals

15%

25%

28%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

Premium

2nd Half Draw

Premium

2nd Half Home Win

Premium

2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

Premium

2nd Half Home or Away

Premium

2nd Half Home or Draw

Premium

2h Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

43%

1.5

57%

72%

2.5

28%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

Premium

2h Exact Goals

17%

26%

28%

17%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Elche	Draw	Real Madrid
Elche	4.4%	2.1%	2.0%
Draw	3.7%	8.6%	14.5%
Real Madrid	1.1%	3.6%	60.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

73%

3.5

27%

Away Exact Goals

17%

25%

24%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

Premium

Away +1 Win

Premium

Away -1 Win

Premium

Home +2 Win

Premium

Away -2 Win

Premium

Home +1 Win

Premium

Away -2 Draw

Premium

Away -1 Draw

Premium

Home -1 Draw

Premium

Home -1 Win

Premium

Home -2 Draw

Premium

Home -2 Win

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Head to Head: Elche vs Real Madrid

0 Elche Wins

1 Draws

2 Real Madrid Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Mar 2026	Real Madrid	4 - 1	Elche
23 Nov 2025	Elche	2 - 2	Real Madrid
15 Feb 2023	Real Madrid	4 - 0	Elche

Vedi tutti i 10 incontri — Premium

Elche — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Espanyol	W	1 - 3
15 Sep	H Real Madrid	L	2 - 3
12 Sep	A Athletic Club	D	1 - 1
07 Sep	H Real Sociedad	L	2 - 3
28 Aug	A Racing Santander	L	3 - 2

Real Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Atletico Madrid	L	2 - 1
15 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
12 Sep	H Rayo Vallecano	W	4 - 1
08 Sep	H Inter	W	2 - 1
04 Sep	A Real Betis	L	1 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Real Madrid

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: José Mourinho

1 Courtois

17 Cucurella

4 Huijsen

16 Konaté

12 Alexander-Arnold

14 Tchouaméni

8 Valverde

7 Júnior

15 Güler

25 Diomande

10 Mbappé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	T. Courtois	G
12	T. Alexander-Arnold	D
16	I. Konaté	D
4	D. Huijsen	D
17	Marc Cucurella	D
8	F. Valverde	M
14	A. Tchouaméni	M
25	Y. Diomande	M
15	A. Güler	M
7	Vinícius Júnior	M
10	Kylian Mbappé	F

Substitutes

20	Bernardo Silva	M
22	A. Rüdiger	D
27	Thiago Pitarch	M
13	A. Lunin	G
19	Carlos Espí	F
9	Endrick	F
24	D. Dumfries	D
21	Brahim Díaz	M
18	Álvaro Fernández	D
6	E. Camavinga	M
2	Raúl Asencio	D
5	J. Bellingham	M

Elche

Formation: 4-5-1 Coach: M. Anselmi

1 Dituro

3 Revivo

23 Chust

5 Redondo

2 Sangaré

20 Morente

12 Villar

8 Aguado

16 Neto

11 Valera

24 Osorio

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	M. Dituro	G
2	Buba Sangaré	D
5	F. Redondo	D
23	Víctor Chust	D
3	R. Revivo	D
11	Germán Valera	M
16	Martim Neto	M
8	Marc Aguado	M
12	Gonzalo Villar	M
20	Tete Morente	M
24	A. Osorio	F

Substitutes

26	Matia Barzic Gutiérrez	D
6	Bigas	D
10	F. Buonanotte	M
21	L. Cepeda	F
19	G. Diangana	F
13	Alejandro Iturbe	G
17	Josan	M
18	T. Lemar	M
14	Fer Niño	F
9	E. Ponce	F
22	Rubén Sánchez	D
47	J. Morcillo	M