Real Betis vs Real Madrid Previsione

La Liga · Regular Season - 4

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Real Madrid

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Previsione AI Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Real Madrid

16%

21%

63%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Real Betis vs Real Madrid: Sportiko assegna a Real Betis una probabilità di vittoria del 16%, a Real Madrid del 63% e al pareggio del 21%. Ultimo aggiornamento 4 Sep 2026, 21:07.

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5 74%
Under 4.5 73%
Away 1H Over 0.5 72%

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Match Report

Real Betis claimed a surprise 1–0 victory over Real Madrid in La Liga's fourth matchday, with the hosts controlling large portions of the contest. Betis dominated possession at 58% and fashioned 20 total shots to Madrid's 10, reflecting their authority throughout. The first half ended goalless despite Betis's pressure, with Diego Llorente forced off through injury before the break.

The decisive moment arrived in the 81st minute when Troy Parrott broke the deadlock, and Madrid's hopes of an immediate response were dented when a Carlos Espí goal was ruled out by VAR shortly after. The visitors' evening worsened in stoppage time as Kylian Mbappé missed a penalty that would have levelled proceedings, leaving Madrid with nothing from the contest. A flurry of yellow cards across both sides added to the febrile atmosphere, with Eduardo Camavinga among those booked and subsequently substituted.

The result will raise eyebrows given the pre-match expectations — our AI model had rated a Real Madrid win as the most likely outcome at 63% — but Betis's industry and clinical finishing ultimately proved the difference on the night.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Diego Llorente ⇄ Marc Bartra

39' ⇄

▮ 45+3'

Arda Güler Yellow Card

HT 0–0

▮ 54'

Ibrahima Konaté Yellow Card

▮ 54'

Yellow Card

Isco ⇄ Álvaro Fidalgo

60' ⇄

▮ 61'

Eduardo Camavinga Yellow Card

Facundo Bernal Yellow Card

64' ▮

⇄ 64'

Eduardo Camavinga ⇄ Bernardo Silva

⇄ 64'

D. Dumfries ⇄ Trent Alexander-Arnold

⇄ 64'

Arda Güler ⇄ Yan Diomande

Facundo Bernal ⇄ Nelson Deossa

68' ⇄

Cucho Hernández ⇄ Troy Parrott

68' ⇄

Antony ⇄ Rodrigo Riquelme

77' ⇄

Troy Parrott

81' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 82'

Federico Valverde ⇄ Carlos Espí

Marc Roca Yellow Card

83' ▮

⇄ 88'

Marc Cucurella ⇄ Álvaro Carreras

🖵 89'

Carlos Espí Goal cancelled

Natan Yellow Card

90+3' ▮

✗ 90+4'

Kylian Mbappé Missed Penalty

FT 1–0

Real Betis

Match Stats

Real Madrid

42% Ball Possession 58%

10 Total Shots 20

5 Shots on Goal 8

2 Shots off Goal 9

3 Blocked Shots 3

4 Shots insidebox 16

6 Shots outsidebox 4

6 Corner Kicks 10

1 Offsides 2

11 Fouls 13

3 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 0

6 Goalkeeper Saves 4

412 Total passes 586

359 Passes accurate 535

13 Free Kicks 11

Real Betis

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Álvaro Valles G	8.4	90'	–	–	–	20 (11%)	–
19 Troy Parrott F	7.8	22'	1	–	1	3 (2%)	1
2 Héctor Bellerín D	7.6	90'	–	–	–	43 (37%)	7
11 Fran García D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	35 (31%)	2
5 Marc Bartra D	7.4	51'	–	–	1	13 (11%)	4
21 Marc Roca M	7.3	90'	–	–	–	56 (53%)	3
8 Pablo Fornals M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	55 (48%)	1
22 Isco M	7.2	60'	–	–	1	34 (32%)	–
3 Diego Llorente D	7.1	39'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	1
4 Natan D	7.1	90'	–	–	–	31 (30%)	1
18 Nelson Deossa M	7.0	22'	–	–	2	10 (7%)	–
15 Álvaro Fidalgo M	6.9	30'	–	–	–	14 (13%)	2
6 Facundo Bernal M	6.9	68'	–	–	–	31 (29%)	4
7 Antony M	6.9	77'	–	–	4	36 (32%)	–
17 Rodrigo Riquelme M	6.8	13'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–
9 Cucho Hernández F	6.3	68'	–	–	1	14 (9%)	–

Real Madrid

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Thibaut Courtois G	7.5	90'	–	–	–	25 (24%)	–
5 Jude Bellingham M	7.3	90'	–	–	3	48 (43%)	1
15 Arda Güler M	7.2	64'	–	–	2	40 (36%)	–
4 Dean Huijsen D	7.2	90'	–	–	2	88 (86%)	1
20 Bernardo Silva M	7.1	26'	–	–	–	21 (20%)	1
17 Marc Cucurella D	7.0	88'	–	–	–	61 (56%)	–
24 D. Dumfries D	6.9	64'	–	–	–	21 (20%)	–
12 Trent Alexander-Arnold D	6.9	26'	–	–	–	15 (14%)	1
18 Álvaro Carreras D	6.8	2'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–
7 Vinícius Júnior M	6.6	90'	–	–	4	39 (30%)	–
8 Federico Valverde M	6.6	82'	–	–	1	58 (51%)	1
19 Carlos Espí F	6.5	8'	–	–	1	–	–
6 Eduardo Camavinga M	6.4	64'	–	–	–	41 (40%)	–
25 Yan Diomande F	6.3	26'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	–
16 Ibrahima Konaté D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	77 (72%)	1
10 Kylian Mbappé F	6.1	90'	–	–	7	36 (29%)	–

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Confidence Medium (63%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Real Madrid

Most likely score

1:2 · 9.8%

Both teams to score

64%

Over 2.5 goals

69%

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Real Betis

DWWWW

Real Madrid

LWWWL

Last 3 meetings Real Betis · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Real Betis will face a challenging match against Real Madrid in La Liga. Betis has shown solid form at home, averaging 1.5 goals per game this season, while Real Madrid boasts a potent offense, scoring an average of 2.3 goals per match. Defensively, Betis will need to tighten up, as they have conceded 1.4 goals per game. Madrid's ability to control possession and create high-quality chances could be pivotal. Expect a tactical battle, with Betis aiming to disrupt Madrid's rhythm while looking to exploit counter-attacking opportunities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

16%

10%

Draw

21%

45%

Away

63%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Real Madrid goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	6	8	7	4	2
1	2	9	10	8	5	2
2	2	5	6	5	3	1
3	1	2	2	2	1	1
4		1	1	1
5

↑ Real Betis goals · most likely 1–2 (9.8%)

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Players in form

Real Betis

No scorer data.

Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé 7 gls

J. Bellingham 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

63%

Draw

21%

Home Win

16%

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS Yes 36% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

96%

12%

1.5

88%

31%

2.5

69%

53%

3.5

47%

73%

4.5

27%

88%

5.5

12%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

63%

Draw

21%

Home Win

16%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

79% Away (No Draw) 21% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

41% Away Win by 2+ 7% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

63% Away Scores More 21% Equal Goals 16% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

96%

12%

1.5

88%

31%

2.5

69%

53%

3.5

47%

73%

4.5

27%

88%

5.5

12%

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS Yes 36% BTTS No

Exact Goals

19%

22%

20%

14%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.9%	5.8%	8.3%	6.7%	4.1%
1	2.3%	9.1%	9.8%	7.9%	4.8%
2	2.0%	4.8%	5.8%	4.7%	2.9%
3	0.8%	1.9%	2.3%	1.8%	1.1%
4	0.2%	0.6%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

43%

1.5

57%

71%

2.5

29%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

17%

26%

29%

17%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

47%

1.5

53%

75%

2.5

25%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

19%

27%

28%

15%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Real Betis	Draw	Real Madrid
Real Betis	9.4%	3.6%	2.7%
Draw	5.7%	11.3%	15.6%
Real Madrid	1.4%	4.1%	46.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

31%

1.5

69%

58%

2.5

42%

80%

3.5

20%

Away Exact Goals

22%

27%

22%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

1.5

32%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Real Betis vs Real Madrid

1 Real Betis Wins

1 Draws

1 Real Madrid Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
24 Apr 2026	Real Betis	1 - 1	Real Madrid
04 Jan 2026	Real Madrid	5 - 1	Real Betis
01 Mar 2025	Real Betis	2 - 1	Real Madrid

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Real Betis — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Deportivo La Coruna	D	1 - 1
17 Sep	H Getafe	W	1 - 0
14 Sep	A Villarreal	W	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Lille	W	2 - 3
04 Sep	H Real Madrid	W	1 - 0

Real Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Atletico Madrid	L	2 - 1
15 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
12 Sep	H Rayo Vallecano	W	4 - 1
08 Sep	H Inter	W	2 - 1
04 Sep	A Real Betis	L	1 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Real Madrid

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: José Mourinho

1 Courtois

17 Cucurella

4 Huijsen

16 Konaté

24 Dumfries

6 Camavinga

8 Valverde

7 Júnior

5 Bellingham

15 Güler

10 Mbappé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	T. Courtois	G
24	D. Dumfries	D
16	I. Konaté	D
4	D. Huijsen	D
17	Marc Cucurella	D
8	F. Valverde	M
6	E. Camavinga	M
15	A. Güler	M
5	J. Bellingham	M
7	Vinícius Júnior	M
10	Kylian Mbappé	F

Substitutes

20	Bernardo Silva	M
25	Y. Diomande	F
22	A. Rüdiger	D
33	Mario Rivas	D
31	Javier Navarro	G
38	S. Martinez	M
13	A. Lunin	G
19	Carlos Espí	F
21	Brahim Díaz	M
29	J. Cestero Sancho	M
18	Álvaro Fernández	D
12	T. Alexander-Arnold	D

Real Betis

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: M. Pellegrini

1 Vallés

11 García

4 Natan

3 Llorente

2 Bellerín

21 Roca

6 Bernal

8 Fornals

22 Isco

7 Antony

9 Hernández

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Álvaro Vallés	G
2	Héctor Bellerín	D
3	Diego Llorente	D
4	Natan	D
11	Fran García	D
6	F. Bernal	M
21	Marc Roca	M
7	Antony	M
22	Isco	M
8	Pablo Fornals	M
9	C. Hernández	F

Substitutes

18	N. Deossa	M
17	Rodrigo Riquelme	M
40	A. de Pablo	G
15	Álvaro Fidalgo	M
23	Junior Firpo	D
16	V. Gómez	D
31	Manu González	G
14	Iker Losada	F
27	J. A. Morante	F
12	Ángel Ortiz	D
19	T. Parrott	F
5	Marc Bartra	D