Bournemouth vs Leeds Previsione

Premier League Premier League · Regular Season - 9
FT
Post on X
Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
Previsione AI Bournemouth o pareggio
45%
29%
27%
Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Bournemouth vs Leeds: Sportiko assegna a Bournemouth una probabilità di vittoria del 45%, a Leeds del 27% e al pareggio del 29%. Ultimo aggiornamento 31 Oct 2026, 16:57.

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  • 2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
  • Under 3.5 Gol 72%
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Match Report

Bournemouth secured a comfortable 2–0 home victory over Leeds in Premier League matchday nine, with the result settling their side firmly in control despite the visitors enjoying the majority of possession. The game's decisive moment came in the 31st minute when Evanilson broke the deadlock with a well-taken goal, though the afternoon had earlier been shaped by a VAR cancellation that ruled out Dominic Calvert-Lewin's effort for Leeds in the 11th minute.

Leeds struggled to convert their 56% possession into meaningful chances, managing just one shot on target across the entire match compared to Bournemouth's five. A flurry of yellow cards — five in total across both sides — reflected a fractious contest, with Ethan Ampadu and Tyler Adams both booked for the visitors as tensions rose. Three triple-substitutions from Leeds in the 65th minute signalled their intent to find a way back into the game, but Bournemouth's defensive shape held firm.

Amine Adli wrapped up the points deep into stoppage time, converting to make it 2–0 and confirm the hosts' dominance. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Bournemouth win as the most likely outcome at 45%, a call that proved correct.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

🖵 11'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Goal cancelled
Evanilson assist: J. Kluivert
31' ⚽ 1–0
▮ 35'
Nico Elvedi Yellow Card
▮ 35'
Yellow Card
Ryan Christie Yellow Card
45+2' ▮
HT 1–0
▮ 62'
Ethan Ampadu Yellow Card
⇄ 65'
Gabriel Gudmundsson ⇄ Sean Longstaff
⇄ 65'
Ao Tanaka ⇄ Anton Stach
⇄ 65'
Daniel James ⇄ Lukas Nmecha
J. Kluivert ⇄ Eli Junior Kroupi
68' ⇄
Ryan Christie ⇄ Lewis Cook
68' ⇄
Tyler Adams Yellow Card
74' ▮
Evanilson ⇄ Álvaro Rodriguez
76' ⇄
⇄ 84'
James Justin ⇄ Jean-Mattéo Bahoya
⇄ 84'
Harry Wilson ⇄ Brenden Aaronson
Adam Smith ⇄ Bafodé Diakité
88' ⇄
Rayan ⇄ Amine Adli
88' ⇄
Amine Adli
90+5' ⚽ 2–0
FT 2–0
Bournemouth

Match Stats

Leeds
44% Ball Possession 56%
0.96 Expected Goals (xG) 0.69
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Goal 1
3 Shots off Goal 7
3 Blocked Shots 2
5 Shots insidebox 3
6 Shots outsidebox 7
4 Corner Kicks 4
0 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 0
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
408 Total passes 508
314 Passes accurate 410
13 Free Kicks 12
Bournemouth
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
9 Evanilson F 7.9 76' 1 – 1 24 (16%) –
19 J. Kluivert M 7.6 68' – 1 1 23 (19%) 1
10 Ryan Christie M 7.3 68' – – 1 32 (28%) 1
14 António Silva D 7.3 90' – – – 57 (51%) 1
5 James Hill D 7.2 90' – – 1 46 (34%) 1
16 Marcus Tavernier M 7.1 90' – – 2 26 (25%) –
3 Adrien Truffert D 7.0 90' – – 1 46 (35%) 2
18 Bafodé Diakité D 7.0 2' – – – 1 –
22 Eli Junior Kroupi F 6.9 22' – – – 3 (3%) 1
30 Álvaro Rodriguez F 6.8 14' – – 1 8 (2%) –
4 Lewis Cook M 6.8 22' – – – 6 (5%) 1
1 Đorđe Petrović G 6.7 90' – – – 32 (17%) –
15 Adam Smith D 6.7 88' – – – 27 (18%) –
21 Amine Adli F 6.6 2' – – – 1 (1%) 1
12 Tyler Adams M 6.4 90' – – 1 50 (42%) –
37 Rayan M 6.2 88' – – 1 25 (17%) 1
Leeds
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
24 James Justin D 6.8 84' – – 1 37 (30%) 2
2 Jayden Bogle M 6.7 90' – – – 45 (40%) –
5 Tarik Muharemović D 6.6 90' – – – 84 (68%) 1
1 James Trafford G 6.6 90' – – – 38 (26%) –
22 Ao Tanaka M 6.5 65' – – – 36 (28%) 3
14 Lukas Nmecha F 6.4 25' – – 1 6 (5%) –
23 Jean-Mattéo Bahoya F 6.4 6' – – 1 5 (5%) –
11 Brenden Aaronson M 6.3 6' – – – 5 (4%) –
10 Harry Wilson M 6.3 84' – – 2 36 (28%) 1
30 Nico Elvedi D 6.2 90' – – – 50 (43%) 1
7 Daniel James M 6.2 65' – – – 18 (16%) 1
4 Ethan Ampadu M 6.1 90' – – – 71 (62%) 2
18 Anton Stach M 6.1 25' – – 2 16 (15%) –
9 Dominic Calvert-Lewin F 6.0 90' – – 2 17 (8%) –
8 Sean Longstaff M 5.9 25' – – 1 19 (16%) –
3 Gabriel Gudmundsson M 5.8 65' – – – 25 (17%) 1
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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio
Bournemouth o pareggio
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Bournemouth
WWWWW
Leeds
WLDDL
Last 3 meetings Bournemouth · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

Bournemouth faces Leeds in a crucial Premier League clash. Both teams have shown fluctuating form, with Bournemouth currently holding a slight edge in home performances, averaging 1.5 goals per match at home this season. Leeds, conversely, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals per match away. The match will likely hinge on Bournemouth's ability to exploit Leeds' defensive vulnerabilities while maintaining solid organization to counter Leeds' attacking threats. This contest is essential for both clubs as they aim to secure vital points in the league standings.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
45%
10%
Draw
29%
45%
Away
27%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Bournemouth
M. Tavernier 5 gls
Evanilson 4 gls
Leeds
D. Calvert-Lewin 3 gls

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Head to Head: Bournemouth vs Leeds

1 Bournemouth Wins
2 Draws
0 Leeds Wins
Date Home Score Away
22 Apr 2026 Bournemouth 2 - 2 Leeds
27 Sep 2025 Leeds 2 - 2 Bournemouth
30 Apr 2023 Bournemouth 4 - 1 Leeds
Vedi tutti i 4 incontri — Premium

Bournemouth — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
05 Nov A Sparta Praha W 1 - 3
31 Oct H Leeds W 2 - 0
28 Oct H Aston Villa W 3 - 0
25 Oct A Manchester United W 0 - 3
22 Oct H AC Milan W 3 - 0

Leeds — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
07 Nov H Tottenham W 1 - 0
31 Oct A Bournemouth L 2 - 0
25 Oct A Sunderland D 0 - 0
18 Oct H Manchester United D 1 - 1
10 Oct A Arsenal L 2 - 1

Premier League Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Arsenal
10 9 0 1 +10 27
2
Manchester City
10 7 0 3 +8 21
3
Brighton
9 6 1 2 +17 19
4
Chelsea
9 5 1 3 +4 16
5
Everton
10 4 4 2 +2 16
6
Liverpool
9 4 3 2 +2 15
7
Brentford
9 3 5 1 +7 14
8
Leeds
10 3 5 2 +2 14
9
Bournemouth
9 3 3 3 +1 12
10
Tottenham
10 3 3 4 -1 12
11
Newcastle
10 3 3 4 -3 12
12
Aston Villa
9 3 3 3 -3 12
13
Hull City
10 2 5 3 0 11
14
Ipswich
9 3 2 4 -4 11
15
Fulham
10 2 4 4 -2 10
16
Nottingham Forest
10 2 3 5 -4 9
17
Coventry
10 3 0 7 -9 9
18
Manchester United
9 1 4 4 -5 7
19
Crystal Palace
9 2 1 6 -12 7
20
Sunderland
9 1 2 6 -10 5

Bournemouth

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: M. Rose
1 Petrović
3 Truffert
14 Silva
5 Hill
15 Smith
10 Christie
12 Adams
16 Tavernier
19 Kluivert
37 Rayan
9 Evanilson

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 Đ. Petrović G
15 A. Smith D
5 J. Hill D
14 António Silva D
3 A. Truffert D
12 T. Adams M
10 R. Christie M
37 Rayan M
19 J. Kluivert M
16 M. Tavernier M
9 Evanilson F

Substitutes

7 D. Brooks M
4 L. Cook M
18 B. Diakité D
20 M. Di Gregorio G
21 A. Adli F
11 B. Doak F
22 E. Kroupi F
30 Á. Rodríguez F
6 J. Soler D

Leeds

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: D. Farke
1 Trafford
5 Muharemović
30 Elvedi
24 Justin
3 Gudmundsson
22 Tanaka
4 Ampadu
2 Bogle
7 James
10 Wilson
9 Calvert-Lewin

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 J. Trafford G
24 J. Justin D
30 N. Elvedi D
5 T. Muharemović D
2 J. Bogle M
4 E. Ampadu M
22 A. Tanaka M
3 G. Gudmundsson M
10 H. Wilson M
7 D. James M
9 D. Calvert-Lewin F

Substitutes

11 B. Aaronson M
23 J. Bahoya F
26 M. Bard D
15 J. Bijol D
44 I. Gruev M
8 S. Longstaff M
14 L. Nmecha F
18 A. Stach M
16 M. Zetterer G

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