Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia Previsione

UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round

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CSKA Sofia

Away

Previsione AI Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Qarabag

60%

24%

15%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia: Sportiko assegna a Qarabag una probabilità di vittoria del 60%, a CSKA Sofia del 15% e al pareggio del 24%. Ultimo aggiornamento 23 Jul 2026, 17:58.

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Oltre 1.5 Gol 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 73%
1st Half Over 0.5 70%

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Match Report

Qarabag and CSKA Sofia played out a goalless draw in the first leg of their UEFA Europa League second qualifying round tie in Baku, with neither side able to find a breakthrough across 90 minutes. The match was largely uneventful in the opening half, though a pair of yellow cards in quick succession around the 35th and 37th minutes added some early tension.

The second half brought more activity, with both teams turning to their benches in an attempt to shift the momentum. The clearest moment of the tie came in the 59th minute when a goal was disallowed for offside following a VAR review, denying what would have been the decisive strike. A further flurry of substitutions around the 73rd and 74th minutes reshaped both sides, and a fifth yellow card of the evening was shown in the 77th minute as the game grew more fractious late on.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Qarabag win as the most likely outcome at 60%, though the hosts were ultimately unable to convert that expectation into goals. The tie remains level heading into the second leg.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 35'

Yellow Card

37' ▮

HT 0–0

56' ⇄

Goal Disallowed - offside

59' 🖵

⇄ 73'

74' ⇄

▮ 77'

Yellow Card

78' ⇄

⇄ 84'

⇄ 90+1'

FT 0–0

Qarabag

Match Stats

CSKA Sofia

Ball Possession

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Shots off Goal

Blocked Shots

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

1 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Medium (60%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Qarabag

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.8%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

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Qarabag

WDWWL

CSKA Sofia

DWWWD

Last 1 meetings Qarabag · 0W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming UEFA Europa League clash, Qarabag faces CSKA Sofia. Qarabag has shown strong form in their domestic league, particularly excelling in defensive organization with an average of just 0.8 goals conceded per match this season. CSKA Sofia, on the other hand, has struggled with consistency, experiencing a mixed bag of results that has seen them concede an average of 1.5 goals per match in their last five outings. Key players to watch include Qarabag's top scorer, who has netted 10 goals this season, and CSKA's playmaker, who leads the team in assists. The match promises to be competitive, with Qarabag looking to leverage their solid defensive record against a CSKA side in need of a morale-boosting performance.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

60%

45%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

15%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

CSKA Sofia goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	9	5	3	1
1	11	13	5	1
2	11	10	4	1
3	6	6	2	1
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Qarabag goals · most likely 1–1 (12.8%)

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Players in form

Qarabag

R. Almeyda 1 gls

Pedro Bicalho 1 gls

CSKA Sofia

Bruno Jordão 1 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

24%

Away Win

15%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

24%

Away Win

15%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

76% Home (No Draw) 24% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

32% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

56% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals 18% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.9%	5.1%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%
1	11.4%	12.8%	5.0%	1.5%	0.3%
2	11.1%	9.8%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%
3	6.4%	5.6%	2.5%	0.7%	0.2%
4	2.8%	2.4%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Qarabag	Draw	CSKA Sofia
Qarabag	36.6%	3.8%	1.0%
Draw	18.3%	17.0%	6.9%
CSKA Sofia	2.3%	3.9%	10.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

49%

1.5

51%

76%

2.5

24%

91%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

77%

1.5

23%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

41%

37%

16%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

65%

0.5

35%

93%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Qarabag vs CSKA Sofia

0 Qarabag Wins

1 Draws

0 CSKA Sofia Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
30 Jul 2026	CSKA Sofia	0 - 0	Qarabag

Qarabag — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Safa Baku	W	1 - 0
13 Sep	A Zira	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Araz	W	3 - 2
31 Aug	A Sumqayıt	W	0 - 1
27 Aug	H Twente	L	1 - 4

CSKA Sofia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Lokomotiv Plovdiv	D	1 - 1
16 Sep	A Lokomotiv Sofia	W	0 - 2
12 Sep	H Arda Kardzhali	W	4 - 1
09 Sep	A Levski Sofia	W	2 - 4
05 Sep	A Spartak Varna	D	1 - 1

UEFA Europa League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Juventus	1	1	0	0	5	0	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	4	0	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	1	0	0	4	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	1	0	0	4	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	1	0	0	3	0	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	1	0	0	3	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
9	OFI	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
28	Celtic	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0
30	AC Milan	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0
31	Celje	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0
32	Marseille	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0
34	Plzen	1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0

Qarabag

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

99 Kochalski

5 Langa

4 Várkonyi

55 Hüseynov

2 Silva

8 Janković

35 Bicalho

10 Zoubir

20 Borges

21 Kashchuk

11 Sawo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
99	Mateusz Kochalski	G
2	Matheus Silva	D
55	Bədavi Hüseynov	D
4	Bence Várkonyi	D
5	Bruno Langa	D
35	Pedro Bicalho	M
8	Marko Janković	M
21	Olexiy Kashchuk	M
20	Kady Borges	M
10	Abdellah Zoubir	M
11	Zakaria Sawo	F

Substitutes

29	Renaldo Cephas	F
1	Shakhrudin Magomedaliyev	G
23	Martin Zlomislić	G
13	Bahlul Mustafazada	D
7	Jaly Mouaddib	M
9	Joni Montiel	M
25	Cebrail Makreckis	M
32	Hikmat Jabrayilzade	M
44	Elvin Jafarguliyev	M
49	Ali Bashirov	M
22	Musa Qurbanlı	F

CSKA Sofia

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Hristo Yanev

21 Lapoukhov

17 Martino

14 Ivanov

32 Rodríguez

2 Pastor

8 Sensi

6 Jordão

5 Gbamin

7 Ebong

28 Pittas

9 Godoy

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
21	Fedor Lapoukhov	G
2	Pastor	D
32	Facundo Rodríguez	D
14	Teodor Ivanov	D
17	Ángelo Martino	D
7	Max Ebong	M
5	Jean-Philippe Gbamin	D
6	Bruno Jordão	M
8	Stefano Sensi	M
9	Leandro Godoy	F
28	Ioannis Pittas	F

Substitutes

25	Dimitar Evtimov	G
3	Tamimou Ouorou	D
19	Andrey Yordanov	D
91	Aleks Tunchev	D
11	Mohamed Amine Brahimi	M
30	Petko Panayotov	M
34	Vasil Kaymakanov	M
38	Léo Pereira	M
77	Alejandro Piedrahita	M
80	Georgi Chorbadzhiyski	M
94	Isaac Solet	M
10	Joël Zwarts	F