Ararat-Armenia vs Riga Previsione

UEFA Champions League · 1st Qualifying Round

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Riga

Away

Previsione AI Riga o pareggio

32%

28%

40%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Ararat-Armenia vs Riga: Sportiko assegna a Ararat-Armenia una probabilità di vittoria del 32%, a Riga del 40% e al pareggio del 28%. Ultimo aggiornamento 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Casa a Segno 73%
1st Half Draw or Away 74%

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Match Report

Ararat-Armenia secured a 2–0 victory over Riga in the first qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League, with the decisive action coming in a turbulent second half after a goalless opening 45 minutes.

The hosts broke the deadlock in the 63rd minute and quickly found themselves with a numerical advantage when Riga had a player sent off on 72 minutes, a moment that effectively ended the visitors' hopes of getting back into the tie. The red card came amid a flurry of activity, with substitutions made by both sides and yellow cards already having been shown at 54 and 68 minutes, reflecting a increasingly fractious contest. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Riga win as the most likely outcome at 40%, a call that proved wide of the mark.

Ararat-Armenia capitalised on their extra man to add a second goal in the 86th minute, putting the result beyond doubt. The Armenian side now advance to the next qualifying round with a comfortable two-goal cushion, having controlled the match decisively from the moment Riga were reduced to ten men.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

44' ⇄

HT 0–0

▮ 54'

Yellow Card

63' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 68'

Yellow Card

▮ 72'

Red Card

72' ⇄

73' ⇄

⇄ 76'

86' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 87'

88' ⇄

⇄ 90+5'

FT 2–0

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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Riga o pareggio

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.5%

Both teams to score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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Ararat-Armenia

WLWWL

Riga

WWDDW

Last 1 meetings Ararat-Armenia · 0W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming UEFA Champions League match, Ararat-Armenia will face Riga. Both teams have shown competitive form in their recent fixtures, with Ararat-Armenia boasting a solid defensive record, allowing only 0.9 goals per match in their last five games. Riga, on the other hand, has displayed an efficient attacking style, averaging 1.8 goals per match during the same period. Set pieces could prove pivotal, as both teams have struggled to defend against them, which may lead to scoring opportunities. This match will be crucial for both teams as they aim to secure early points in the group stage.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Riga goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	8	7	3	1
1	6	14	9	4	2
2	5	8	6	3	1
3	2	3	3	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Ararat-Armenia goals · most likely 1–1 (13.5%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

40%

Home Win

32%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

40%

Home Win

32%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

56% Away (No Draw) 44% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Away Win by 2+ 14% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

40% Away Scores More 32% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

26%

22%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	7.6%	6.8%	3.4%	1.3%
1	6.5%	13.5%	8.9%	4.4%	1.7%
2	5.3%	7.8%	5.8%	2.9%	1.1%
3	2.3%	3.4%	2.6%	1.3%	0.5%
4	0.8%	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Ararat-Armenia	Draw	Riga
Ararat-Armenia	18.8%	4.6%	2.3%
Draw	12.0%	17.2%	14.5%
Riga	2.0%	4.6%	24.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

56%

1.5

44%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Ararat-Armenia vs Riga

0 Ararat-Armenia Wins

0 Draws

1 Riga Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Jul 2026	Riga	3 - 2	Ararat-Armenia

Ararat-Armenia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Shirak	W	1 - 3
16 Sep	H Sparta Praha	L	1 - 4
11 Sep	H Syunik	W	3 - 0
05 Sep	A Ararat	W	0 - 1
31 Aug	A Pyunik Yerevan	L	2 - 1

Riga — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A FS Jelgava	W	0 - 1
15 Sep	A Super Nova	W	0 - 1
11 Sep	H Auda	D	2 - 2
07 Sep	H BFC Daugavpils	D	1 - 1
03 Sep	A Rīgas FS	W	2 - 3

UEFA Champions League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	1	1	0	0	6	1	+5	3
2	Bayern München	1	1	0	0	5	0	+5	3
3	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	5	1	+4	3
4	Manchester United	1	1	0	0	4	0	+4	3
5	Como	1	1	0	0	4	1	+3	3
6	VfB Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	3	1	+2	3
7	Sporting CP	1	1	0	0	3	1	+2	3
8	Manchester City	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
9	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
10	Lens	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
11	Real Betis	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
12	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
13	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
14	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
15	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
16	AEK Athens FC	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
17	AS Roma	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
18	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
19	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
20	Fenerbahçe	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
21	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
22	Lille	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
23	Slavia Praha	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
24	Club Brugge KV	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
25	Inter	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
26	Atletico Madrid	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
27	Napoli	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
28	Lask Linz	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
29	Viking	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0
30	Galatasaray	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0
31	FC Porto	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0
32	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0
33	Feyenoord	1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0
34	Sabah FA	1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0
35	Slovan Bratislava	1	0	0	1	1	6	-5	0
36	Bodo/Glimt	1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0

Riga

Formation: 4-3-2-1 Coach: Adrian Gula

91 Orols

17 Salazar

21 Musah

5 Wassom

33 Paulo

4 Galo

40 Ankrah

13 Jurkovskis

7 Aouani

18 M'Hand

19 Badamosi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
91	Frenks Orols	G
33	Paulo	D
5	Karl Gameni Wassom	D
21	Baba Musah	D
17	Andrés Salazar	D
13	Raivis Jurkovskis	D
40	Ahmed Ankrah	M
4	Orlando Galo	M
18	Salah Oulad M'Hand	M
7	Raki Aouani	M
19	Muhammed Badamosi	F

Substitutes

1	Krišjānis Zviedris	G
44	Marcis Kazainis	G
3	Abner	D
23	Maksims Tonisevs	D
8	Iago Siqueira Augusto	M
22	Meïssa Diop	M
10	Reginaldo Ramires	F
25	Abdulrahman Taiwo	F
70	Juan Christian	F
99	Caio Ferreira	F

Ararat-Armenia

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Tulipa

98 Bravim

16 Grigoryan

47 Malis

3 Julio

13 Hovhannisyan

19 Muradyan

20 Tera

2 Oliveira

7 Shaghoyan

91 Lima

77 Serobyan

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
98	João Bravim	G
13	Kamo Hovhannisyan	D
3	Junior Julio	D
47	Alexandros Malis	D
16	Edgar Grigoryan	D
2	Hugo Oliveira	D
20	Alwyn Tera	M
19	Karen Muradyan	M
77	Artur Serobyan	M
91	Sandro Lima	F
7	Zhirayr Shaghoyan	M

Substitutes

43	Bruno Wilson	D
10	Armen Ambartsumyan	M
25	Alioune Ndour	F
95	Carlos França	M
1	Arman Nersesyan	G
5	Luís Felipe	D
14	Bruno Pereira	D
6	Michel Ayvazyan	M
11	Zidane Banjaqui	M
17	Maxence Carlier	M
9	Arayik Eloyan	F
90	Paul Ayongo	F