Brazil vs Japan Previsione

World Cup · Round of 32

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Japan

Away

Previsione AI Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Brazil

52%

28%

20%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Brazil vs Japan: Sportiko assegna a Brazil una probabilità di vittoria del 52%, a Japan del 20% e al pareggio del 28%. Ultimo aggiornamento 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Under 3.5 Gol 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 74%

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Match Report

Japan caused a major upset scare in this World Cup Round of 32 clash, taking the lead through Kaishu Sano's 29th-minute strike despite the midfielder having already been booked earlier in the half. Brazil dominated possession at 69% and generated 19 total shots to Japan's five, but struggled to convert their chances before the break, heading into half-time a goal down.

Brazil responded immediately after the interval, with Casemiro equalising on 56 minutes to restore parity. The match appeared to be heading toward extra time as the clock wound down, but Gabriel Martinelli struck deep into stoppage time at 90+5' to seal a dramatic 2–1 victory and send Brazil through. The win came despite a booking for Casemiro in the first half and a yellow card for Danilo early in the second.

The result ultimately aligned with the pre-match expectation — our AI model had rated a Brazil win as the most likely outcome at 52%. Japan's disciplined defensive effort, limiting Brazil to just seven shots on target despite the heavy possession imbalance, made this a far tighter contest than many anticipated.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 12'

Kaishu Sano Yellow Card

Casemiro Yellow Card

14' ▮

⚽ 0–1 29'

Kaishu Sano

▮ 45'

Daichi Kamada Yellow Card

HT 0–1

Lucas Paquetá ⇄ Endrick

46' ⇄

Danilo Yellow Card

48' ▮

Casemiro assist: Gabriel Magalhães

56' ⚽ 1–1

Matheus Cunha ⇄ Gabriel Martinelli

66' ⇄

⇄ 66'

Ritsu Doan ⇄ Yukinari Sugawara

⇄ 66'

Keito Nakamura ⇄ Junnosuke Suzuki

⇄ 78'

Daichi Kamada ⇄ Ao Tanaka

⇄ 78'

Junya Ito ⇄ S. Machino

▮ 84'

Junnosuke Suzuki Yellow Card

Casemiro ⇄ Fabinho

90+2' ⇄

Gabriel Martinelli assist: Bruno Guimarães

90+5' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 90+7'

Daizen Maeda ⇄ Koki Ogawa

Bruno Guimarães ⇄ Danilo Santos

90+8' ⇄

FT 2–1

Brazil

Match Stats

Japan

69% Ball Possession 31%

1.69 Expected Goals (xG) 0.23

19 Total Shots 5

7 Shots on Goal 2

6 Shots off Goal 1

6 Blocked Shots 2

12 Shots insidebox 2

7 Shots outsidebox 3

6 Corner Kicks 2

1 Offsides 0

4 Fouls 12

2 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 4

676 Total passes 308

624 Passes accurate 258

92% Passes % 84%

-0.35 goals_prevented -0.35

Brazil

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
5 Casemiro M	8.0	93'	1	–	2	76 (68%)	1
7 Vinícius Júnior F	7.7	99'	–	–	2	39 (35%)	–
4 Marquinhos D	7.6	99'	–	–	–	111 (108%)	2
3 Gabriel Magalhães D	7.6	99'	–	1	–	135 (130%)	–
16 Douglas Santos D	7.5	99'	–	–	–	65 (63%)	2
26 Rayan F	7.5	99'	–	–	–	30 (28%)	3
22 Gabriel Martinelli F	7.5	33'	1	–	2	13 (13%)	–
8 Bruno Guimarães M	7.3	98'	–	1	2	49 (45%)	2
20 Lucas Paquetá M	6.9	45'	–	–	–	42 (35%)	2
1 Alisson G	6.3	99'	–	–	–	18 (12%)	–
19 Endrick F	6.3	54'	–	–	1	8 (4%)	–
9 Matheus Cunha F	6.2	66'	–	–	3	17 (17%)	1
13 Danilo D	6.0	99'	–	–	–	72 (65%)	–
18 Danilo Santos M	—	1'	–	–	–	–	–
17 Fabinho M	—	6'	–	–	1	1 (1%)	–

Japan

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
24 Kaishu Sano M	7.6	99'	1	–	1	32 (29%)	–
22 Takehiro Tomiyasu D	7.3	99'	–	–	–	32 (25%)	–
1 Zion Suzuki G	7.2	99'	–	–	–	28 (20%)	–
14 Junya Ito F	6.9	78'	–	–	–	20 (16%)	1
11 Daizen Maeda F	6.9	97'	–	–	–	14 (13%)	2
10 Ritsu Doan M	6.7	66'	–	–	–	17 (13%)	2
15 Daichi Kamada M	6.7	78'	–	–	–	33 (33%)	–
2 Yukinari Sugawara D	6.7	33'	–	–	–	4 (2%)	1
6 S. Machino F	6.7	21'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
3 Shogo Taniguchi D	6.6	99'	–	–	–	47 (44%)	–
13 Keito Nakamura M	6.5	66'	–	–	–	21 (18%)	1
18 Ayase Ueda F	6.3	99'	–	–	2	9 (6%)	–
21 Hiroki Itō D	6.2	99'	–	–	–	36 (28%)	–
7 Ao Tanaka M	6.2	21'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	2
25 Junnosuke Suzuki D	6.2	33'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	1
19 Koki Ogawa F	—	2'	–	–	–	–	–

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Confidence Medium (52%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Brazil

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.3%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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Brazil

LWWWD

Japan

LDWDL

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match, Brazil faces Japan on June 29, 2026. Brazil enters this fixture with a rich footballing history, boasting five World Cup titles and a strong attacking lineup, averaging 2.5 goals per match in recent tournaments. Japan, while less decorated, showcases tactical discipline and a solid defensive record, having conceded only 0.8 goals per match in qualifying rounds. The clash will likely hinge on Brazil's ability to break through Japan's organized defense and capitalize on scoring opportunities. Both teams will aim to assert their style of play, making for an intriguing matchup.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

52%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

20%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Japan goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	9	6	3	1
1	11	13	5	2
2	10	10	4	1
3	6	5	2	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Brazil goals · most likely 1–1 (13.3%)

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Players in form

Brazil

Vinícius Júnior 4 gls

Japan

H. Morita 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

28%

Away Win

20%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS Yes 50% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

28%

Away Win

20%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

72% Home (No Draw) 28% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

28% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

52% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 20% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS Yes 50% BTTS No

Exact Goals

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.3%	5.7%	3.4%	1.0%	0.2%
1	11.2%	13.3%	5.5%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.3%	9.6%	4.5%	1.4%	0.3%
3	5.6%	5.2%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.3%	2.1%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

66%

1.5

34%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Brazil	Draw	Japan
Brazil	32.8%	4.0%	1.2%
Draw	18.3%	17.8%	8.3%
Japan	2.3%	4.0%	11.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

93%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

39%

37%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Brazil vs Japan

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Brazil — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Jul	H Norway	L	1 - 2
29 Jun	H Japan	W	2 - 1
24 Jun	A Scotland	W	0 - 3
20 Jun	H Haiti	W	3 - 0
13 Jun	H Morocco	D	1 - 1

Japan — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
29 Jun	A Brazil	L	2 - 1
25 Jun	H Sweden	D	1 - 1
21 Jun	A Tunisia	W	0 - 4
14 Jun	A Netherlands	D	2 - 2
03 Feb	A Iran	L	2 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Brazil

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Carlo Ancelotti

1 Alisson

16 Santos

3 Magalhães

4 Marquinhos

13 Danilo

20 Paquetá

5 Casemiro

8 Guimarães

7 Júnior

9 Cunha

26 Rayan

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Alisson	G
13	Danilo	D
4	Marquinhos	D
3	Gabriel Magalhães	D
16	Douglas Santos	D
8	Bruno Guimarães	M
5	Casemiro	M
20	Lucas Paquetá	M
26	Rayan	F
9	Matheus Cunha	F
7	Vinícius Júnior	F

Substitutes

19	Endrick	F
22	Gabriel Martinelli	F
23	Ederson	G
12	Weverton	G
6	Alex Sandro	D
14	Bremer	D
15	Léo Pereira	D
24	Roger Ibañez	D
2	Éderson	M
17	Fabinho	M
21	Luiz Henrique	F
18	Danilo Santos	M
25	Igor Thiago	F
10	Neymar	F

Japan

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Hajime Moriyasu

1 Suzuki

21 Itō

3 Taniguchi

22 Tomiyasu

13 Nakamura

15 Kamada

24 Sano

10 Doan

11 Maeda

14 Ito

18 Ueda

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Zion Suzuki	G
22	Takehiro Tomiyasu	D
3	Shogo Taniguchi	D
21	Hiroki Itō	D
10	Ritsu Doan	M
24	Kaishu Sano	M
15	Daichi Kamada	M
13	Keito Nakamura	M
14	Junya Ito	F
11	Daizen Maeda	F
18	Ayase Ueda	F

Substitutes

2	Yukinari Sugawara	D
25	Junnosuke Suzuki	D
12	Keisuke Osako	G
23	Tomoki Hayakawa	G
4	Ko Itakura	D
5	Yuto Nagatomo	D
16	Tsuyoshi Watanabe	D
20	Ayumu Seko	D
7	Ao Tanaka	M
17	Yuito Suzuki	M
8	Takefusa Kubo	F
6	Shuto Machino	F
19	Koki Ogawa	F
26	Kento Shiogai	F
9	Keisuke Goto	F