Manchester City vs Arsenal Prédiction

Premier League · Regular Season - 33

Post on X

Arsenal

Away

Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Prédiction IA Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Arsenal

24%

23%

53%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Manchester City vs Arsenal : Sportiko estime que Manchester City a 24% de chances de s'imposer, Arsenal 53% et le match nul 23%. Dernière mise à jour : 27 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Manchester City came from behind to beat Arsenal 2–1 in a tightly contested Premier League clash, with Erling Haaland's second-half strike proving the decisive moment. Rayan Cherki opened the scoring in the 16th minute, only for Kai Havertz to level just two minutes later, sending the sides into the break level at 1–1. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Arsenal win as the most likely outcome at 53%, a call that ultimately did not hold up.

Haaland settled the contest on the hour mark, converting in the 65th minute to hand City the lead they would not relinquish. Arsenal dominated possession with 59% and generated more shots overall — 15 to City's nine — yet managed only five on target, and their expected goals figure of 1.36 fell short of converting that pressure into goals.

The closing stages grew fractious, with yellow cards shown to Haaland and Gabriel Magalhães in the 83rd minute amid a flurry of substitutions from both sides. City held firm to secure three points that will have significant implications in the title race.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Rayan Cherki assist: Matheus Nunes

16' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 18'

Kai Havertz

▮ 36'

Cristhian Mosquera Yellow Card

HT 1–1

⇄ 46'

Noni Madueke ⇄ Gabriel Martinelli

Marc Guéhi Yellow Card

60' ▮

Erling Haaland

65' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 74'

Cristhian Mosquera ⇄ Ben White

⇄ 74'

Eberechi Eze ⇄ Leandro Trossard

Erling Haaland Yellow Card

83' ▮

▮ 83'

Gabriel Magalhães Yellow Card

⇄ 84'

Martín Zubimendi ⇄ Viktor Gyökeres

Rayan Cherki ⇄ Phil Foden

85' ⇄

Rodri ⇄ Nico González

88' ⇄

Jérémy Doku ⇄ Savinho

88' ⇄

Antoine Semenyo ⇄ N. Aké

90+6' ⇄

FT 2–1

Manchester City

Match Stats

Arsenal

59% Ball Possession 41%

1.36 Expected Goals (xG) 1.62

15 Total Shots 9

5 Shots on Goal 3

5 Shots off Goal 3

5 Blocked Shots 3

13 Shots insidebox 8

2 Shots outsidebox 1

8 Corner Kicks 5

0 Offsides 4

5 Fouls 12

2 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 2

498 Total passes 348

424 Passes accurate 262

85% Passes % 75%

-0.64 goals_prevented -0.64

Manchester City

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
33 Nico O'Reilly D	8.3	90'	–	–	–	46 (36%)	1
10 Rayan Cherki M	8.2	85'	1	–	1	48 (40%)	–
16 Rodri M	7.6	88'	–	–	–	74 (69%)	2
11 Jérémy Doku M	7.5	88'	–	–	2	42 (34%)	1
9 Erling Haaland F	7.5	90'	1	–	4	15 (8%)	–
27 Matheus Nunes D	7.2	90'	–	1	–	33 (30%)	2
45 Abdukodir Khusanov D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	42 (39%)	1
15 Marc Guéhi D	6.7	90'	–	–	1	71 (65%)	1
47 Phil Foden M	6.7	13'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
14 Nico González M	6.7	10'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
20 Bernardo Silva M	6.3	90'	–	–	1	59 (53%)	3
26 Savinho F	6.3	10'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
42 Antoine Semenyo M	6.2	89'	–	–	–	16 (10%)	1
25 Gianluigi Donnarumma G	6.2	90'	–	–	–	44 (34%)	–
6 N. Aké D	—	1'	–	–	–	–	–

Arsenal

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
29 Kai Havertz F	7.3	90'	1	–	3	17 (13%)	–
19 Leandro Trossard F	7.0	16'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	1
6 Gabriel Magalhães D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	32 (25%)	1
36 Martín Zubimendi M	6.9	84'	–	–	–	27 (20%)	4
2 William Saliba D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	45 (41%)	2
4 Ben White D	6.7	16'	–	–	–	9 (4%)	–
3 Cristhian Mosquera D	6.7	74'	–	–	1	23 (22%)	3
5 Piero Hincapié D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	22 (15%)	3
1 David Raya G	6.5	90'	–	–	–	32 (16%)	–
8 Martin Ødegaard M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	53 (41%)	–
41 Declan Rice M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	36 (29%)	3
11 Gabriel Martinelli F	6.3	45'	–	–	1	10 (7%)	1
20 Noni Madueke F	6.3	45'	–	–	–	16 (11%)	3
10 Eberechi Eze F	6.3	74'	–	–	1	16 (10%)	1
14 Viktor Gyökeres F	6.2	14'	–	–	–	–	–

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Confidence Medium (60%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Arsenal

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Manchester City

WWWWW

Arsenal

LWWWW

Last 3 meetings Manchester City · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Premier League clash on April 18, 2026, Manchester City will host Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium. City has been dominant at home, boasting a win rate of over 75% in their last 30 league matches, while Arsenal has struggled away, recording only 40% victories in similar fixtures. Both teams have high-scoring offenses, with City averaging 2.5 goals per game and Arsenal closely behind at 2.2. Defensively, City has shown resilience, conceding only 0.9 goals per game compared to Arsenal's 1.4. This match could be pivotal in the title race, making it essential for both teams to secure points.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Arsenal goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	9	9	5	2	1
1	6	11	10	6	3	1
2	3	6	6	4	2	1
3	1	2	2	1	1
4		1	1
5

↑ Manchester City goals · most likely 1–1 (10.7%)

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Players in form

Manchester City

E. Haaland 5 gls

R. Cherki 3 gls

A. Semenyo 2 gls

Arsenal

B. Saka 3 gls

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Head to Head: Manchester City vs Arsenal

1 Manchester City Wins

1 Draws

1 Arsenal Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
16 Aug 2026	Arsenal	3 - 0	Manchester City
22 Mar 2026	Arsenal	0 - 2	Manchester City
21 Sep 2025	Arsenal	1 - 1	Manchester City

Voir les 10 confrontations — Premium

Manchester City — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Sunderland	W	5 - 3
17 Sep	H Norwich	W	5 - 0
13 Sep	A Manchester United	W	0 - 1
08 Sep	A FC Porto	W	0 - 2
05 Sep	H Coventry	W	1 - 0

Arsenal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Brighton	L	3 - 0
15 Sep	A Ipswich	W	2 - 4
12 Sep	A Sunderland	W	0 - 2
09 Sep	A Napoli	W	0 - 1
06 Sep	H Chelsea	W	2 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2