Cruzeiro vs Bahia Prédiction

Serie A · Regular Season - 34

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Cruzeiro

Home

3 : 2

HT 1 - 1

Bahia

Away

Prédiction IA Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Cruzeiro

53%

25%

22%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Cruzeiro vs Bahia : Sportiko estime que Cruzeiro a 53% de chances de s'imposer, Bahia 22% et le match nul 25%. Dernière mise à jour : 6 Nov 2026, 02:32.

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Timeline

Fabrício Bruno ⇄ Matías Viña

5' ⇄

▮ 19'

Nicolás Acevedo Yellow Card

⚽ 0–1 32'

Cristian Olivera assist: Rodrigo Nestor

Kaio Jorge assist: Keny Arroyo

45+2' ⚽ 1–1

HT 1–1

⇄ 57'

Nicolás Acevedo ⇄ Jean Lucas

Kaio Jorge Missed Penalty

62' ✗

⇄ 65'

Erick ⇄ Caio Alexandre

⇄ 65'

Rodrigo Nestor ⇄ Michel Araújo

⇄ 65'

Everton Ribeiro ⇄ Erick Pulga

Bruno Rodrigues assist: Keny Arroyo

69' ⚽ 2–1

Bruno Rodrigues Yellow Card

70' ▮

▮ 70'

Caio Alexandre Yellow Card

Jonathan Jesus Yellow Card

76' ▮

Keny Arroyo ⇄ Marquinhos

82' ⇄

Bruno Rodrigues ⇄ Matheus Henrique

82' ⇄

Fagner ⇄ Kauã Moraes

82' ⇄

⇄ 83'

Kanu ⇄ Román Gómez

Kaio Jorge assist: Lucas Romero

86' ⚽ 3–1

Gerson ⇄ Lucas Silva

87' ⇄

⚽ 3–2 90+5'

Alejo Véliz assist: Luciano Juba

Kauã Moraes Yellow Card

90+9' ▮

FT 3–2

Cruzeiro

Match Stats

Bahia

45% Ball Possession 55%

3.25 Expected Goals (xG) 0.64

21 Total Shots 12

8 Shots on Goal 4

11 Shots off Goal 3

2 Blocked Shots 5

14 Shots insidebox 8

7 Shots outsidebox 4

5 Corner Kicks 7

Offsides

10 Fouls 9

2 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 5

370 Total passes 459

330 Passes accurate 391

89% Passes % 85%

-1.63 goals_prevented -1.63

Cruzeiro

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Kaio Jorge F	9.0	91'	2	–	5	17 (14%)	–
27 Gabriel Rojas D	7.9	91'	–	–	–	24 (20%)	–
99 Keny Arroyo M	7.7	82'	–	2	5	28 (25%)	1
9 Bruno Rodrigues M	7.5	82'	1	–	5	25 (22%)	1
6 Matías Viña D	7.3	86'	–	–	–	46 (43%)	2
29 Lucas Romero M	7.3	91'	–	1	1	67 (63%)	3
34 Jonathan Jesus D	7.0	91'	–	–	–	37 (35%)	2
23 Fagner D	6.9	82'	–	–	1	35 (27%)	4
5 Zé Lucas M	6.9	91'	–	–	1	36 (33%)	1
8 Gerson M	6.6	87'	–	–	1	39 (36%)	–
7 Matheus Henrique M	6.5	9'	–	–	–	–	–
2 Kauã Moraes D	6.5	9'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
11 Marquinhos F	6.5	9'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
81 Otávio Costa G	6.3	91'	–	–	–	8 (5%)	–
15 Fabrício Bruno D	—	5'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
16 Lucas Silva M	—	4'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–

Bahia

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
99 Cristian Olivera M	7.5	91'	1	–	3	13 (10%)	–
5 Nicolás Acevedo M	7.0	57'	–	–	–	37 (32%)	4
14 Erick M	6.9	65'	–	–	–	16 (15%)	1
16 Erick Pulga F	6.9	26'	–	–	2	8 (8%)	–
15 Michel Araújo M	6.7	26'	–	–	–	10 (9%)	3
9 Alejo Véliz F	6.7	91'	–	–	1	23 (18%)	–
10 Everton Ribeiro M	6.6	65'	–	–	–	37 (29%)	–
8 Caio Alexandre M	6.6	26'	–	–	–	33 (31%)	–
4 Kanu D	6.5	83'	–	–	–	41 (36%)	–
33 David Duarte D	6.3	91'	–	–	–	48 (39%)	–
44 Marcos Victor D	6.3	91'	–	–	–	60 (55%)	3
46 Luciano Juba D	6.3	91'	–	–	1	47 (38%)	–
6 Jean Lucas M	6.3	34'	–	–	–	19 (16%)	–
31 Román Gómez D	6.2	8'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–
11 Rodrigo Nestor M	6.2	65'	–	1	–	28 (21%)	1
1 Ronaldo G	5.3	91'	–	–	–	34 (30%)	–

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Confidence Medium (53%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Cruzeiro

Most likely score

Both teams to score

Over 2.5 goals

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Cruzeiro

WWWWL

Bahia

LWDLW

Last 3 meetings Cruzeiro · 3W 0D 0L

Live insights

90' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 3-2! Cruzeiro win probability: 95.4%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 9.5%.

87' Goal 85% sure

Cruzeiro now leads 3-1 with 99.9% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 10.9%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Cruzeiro leads 2-1. Win probability: 86.9%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 13.1%.

69' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 2-1. Cruzeiro win: 84.3%. BTTS: 100%.

45' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 37.8%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

53%

45%

Draw

25%

45%

Away

22%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Cruzeiro

Kaio Jorge 14 gls

Matheus Pereira 9 gls

Bahia

Luciano Juba 11 gls

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Head to Head: Cruzeiro vs Bahia

3 Cruzeiro Wins

0 Draws

0 Bahia Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 May 2026	Bahia	1 - 2	Cruzeiro
15 Sep 2025	Bahia	1 - 2	Cruzeiro
17 Apr 2025	Cruzeiro	3 - 0	Bahia

Voir les 10 confrontations — Premium

Cruzeiro — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Nov	H Bahia	W	3 - 2
29 Oct	A Atletico-MG	W	0 - 1
23 Oct	H Remo	W	1 - 0
18 Oct	A Gremio	W	2 - 4
13 Oct	A RB Bragantino	L	4 - 2

Bahia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Nov	A Cruzeiro	L	3 - 2
29 Oct	H Sao Paulo	W	3 - 2
25 Oct	A Santos	D	1 - 1
18 Oct	H Flamengo	L	0 - 3
11 Oct	H Mirassol	W	1 - 0

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	71	29	+42	76
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	62	23	+39	73
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	55	48	+7	60
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	55	42	+13	57
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	51	43	+8	54
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	50	45	+5	53
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	44	40	+4	50
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	44	39	+5	47
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	50	49	+1	47
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	39	39	0	44
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	46	53	-7	42
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40	51	-11	42
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	43	50	-7	41
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39	48	-9	40
15	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	35	51	-16	38
16	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38	42	-4	38
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	36	42	-6	37
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	38	47	-9	37
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	37	57	-20	29
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	33	68	-35	21

Bahia

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Arturo Ruiz

1 Ronaldo

46 Juba

4 Kanu

33 Duarte

44 Victor

11 Nestor

5 Acevedo

14 Erick

10 Ribeiro

9 Véliz

99 Olivera

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Ronaldo	G
44	Marcos Victor	D
33	David Duarte	D
4	Kanu	D
46	Luciano Juba	D
14	Erick	M
5	Nicolás Acevedo	M
11	Rodrigo Nestor	M
99	Cristian Olivera	F
9	Alejo Véliz	F
10	Everton Ribeiro	F

Substitutes

17	Guido Herrera	G
31	Román Gómez	D
43	Luiz Gustavo	D
66	José Guilherme	D
6	Jean Lucas	M
77	Ruan Pablo	F
15	Michel Araújo	M
8	Caio Alexandre	M
16	Erick Pulga	F
23	Mateo Sanabria	F
7	Ademir	F
27	Everaldo	F

Cruzeiro

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Arturo Ruiz

81 Costa

27 Rojas

34 Jesus

15 Bruno

23 Fagner

5 Lucas

29 Romero

8 Gerson

9 Rodrigues

99 Arroyo

19 Jorge

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
81	Otávio Costa	G
23	Fagner	D
15	Fabrício Bruno	D
34	Jonathan Jesus	D
27	Gabriel Rojas	D
29	Lucas Romero	M
5	Zé Lucas	M
99	Keny Arroyo	M
9	Bruno Rodrigues	M
8	Gerson	M
19	Kaio Jorge	F

Substitutes

41	Léo Aragão	G
1	Cássio	G
6	Matías Viña	D
2	Kauã Moraes	D
7	Matheus Henrique	M
11	Marquinhos	F
67	João Costa	F
20	Wesley	F
16	Lucas Silva	M
97	Luciano Rodríguez	F
94	Wanderson	F
22	Néiser Villarreal	M