Gremio vs Sao Paulo Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 22

08 Aug 2026, 19:00

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Sao Paulo

Away

Prédiction IA Gremio ou match nul

38%

31%

Victoire à domicile · 2.40 Match nul · 3.25 Victoire extérieure · 3.35

Gremio vs Sao Paulo prediction: Sportiko gives Gremio a 38% chance of winning, Sao Paulo 31% and the draw 31%. Last updated 7 Aug 2026, 08:00.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 15.2%

Both teams to score

44%

Over 2.5 goals

35%

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Gremio

WDLDL

Sao Paulo

DLLDD

Last 3 meetings Gremio · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash, Gremio faces Sao Paulo on August 9, 2026. Both teams have shown competitive form, with Gremio currently averaging 1.8 goals per match and a solid defensive record, conceding just 1.1 goals per game. Sao Paulo, meanwhile, boasts a slightly lower scoring rate at 1.5 goals per match but has a strong midfield presence that can disrupt Gremio's rhythm. Key players to watch include Gremio's striker, who has been prolific this season, and Sao Paulo's creative midfielder, known for his playmaking abilities. This matchup promises to be closely contested, with both teams vying for crucial points in the league standings.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

38%

45%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

31%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Sao Paulo goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	14	10	6	2
1	12	15	7	2	1
2	8	8	4	1
3	3	3	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Gremio goals · most likely 1–1 (15.2%)

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Players in form

Gremio

Carlos Vinícius 10 gls

Sao Paulo

J. Calleri 7 gls

Luciano 6 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

31%

Away Win

31%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

36%

1.5

64%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

31%

Away Win

31%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

55% Home (No Draw) 45% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

16% Home Win by 2+ 12% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Home Scores More 33% Equal Goals 30% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

36%

1.5

64%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

22%

29%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.9%	10.3%	6.0%	2.0%	0.5%
1	11.9%	15.2%	6.7%	2.2%	0.5%
2	7.6%	7.5%	3.7%	1.2%	0.3%
3	2.8%	2.8%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%
4	0.8%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

80%

1.5

20%

95%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

45%

34%

16%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

32%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Gremio	Draw	Sao Paulo
Gremio	18.4%	3.7%	1.3%
Draw	17.4%	23.2%	13.4%
Sao Paulo	1.9%	4.4%	16.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

94%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Gremio vs Sao Paulo

1 Gremio Wins

0 Draws

2 Sao Paulo Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
11 Feb 2026	Sao Paulo	2 - 0	Gremio
16 Oct 2025	Gremio	2 - 0	Sao Paulo
17 May 2025	Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Gremio

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Gremio — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Aug	H Mirassol	W	1 - 0
02 Aug	A Mirassol	D	1 - 1
30 Jul	H Bolívar	L	0 - 1
26 Jul	H Fluminense	D	1 - 1
23 Jul	A Bolívar	L	3 - 2

Sao Paulo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
26 Jul	A Flamengo	D	1 - 1
23 Jul	H Atletico Paranaense	L	1 - 2
31 May	A Remo	L	1 - 0
23 May	H Botafogo	D	1 - 1
20 May	H Millonarios	D	1 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	21	14	5	2	38	16	+22	47
2	Flamengo	20	11	6	3	37	18	+19	39
3	Atletico Paranaense	21	11	4	6	28	19	+9	37
4	Fluminense	21	9	7	5	30	25	+5	34
5	Bahia	21	8	8	5	29	25	+4	32
6	RB Bragantino	20	9	4	7	26	20	+6	31
7	Cruzeiro	21	8	6	7	27	30	-3	30
8	Botafogo	20	8	5	7	34	32	+2	29
9	Corinthians	21	7	8	6	22	20	+2	29
10	Atletico-MG	20	8	4	8	25	25	0	28
11	Coritiba	21	7	6	8	25	28	-3	27
12	Sao Paulo	20	7	5	8	25	23	+2	26
13	Vitoria	21	7	5	9	22	31	-9	26
14	Mirassol	20	6	5	9	23	27	-4	23
15	Santos	20	5	7	8	29	33	-4	22
16	Internacional	21	5	7	9	23	27	-4	22
17	Gremio	20	5	7	8	22	26	-4	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	20	5	6	9	23	31	-8	21
19	Remo	21	5	6	10	24	34	-10	21
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.