Monaco vs Lille Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 33

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Lille

Away

Stade Louis-II, Monaco

Prédiction IA Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Monaco

57%

23%

20%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Monaco vs Lille prediction: Sportiko gives Monaco a 57% chance of winning, Lille 20% and the draw 23%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Lille claimed a crucial Ligue 1 victory at Monaco thanks to a fortunate own goal, with the visitors edging a tight and largely uneventful contest. The first half offered little in the way of clear chances, though a VAR review saw a penalty cancelled for Monaco's Matías Fernández-Pardo in the 18th minute, a decision that would prove significant in the context of the final result.

The second half brought a flurry of substitutions from both sides as each manager sought to find a breakthrough, and it was Lille who benefited from an unlikely source. Denis Zakaria turned the ball into his own net on 72 minutes to hand the visitors the lead, a moment that ultimately settled the match. The expected goals figures — 0.39 for Monaco and 0.37 for Lille — underlined just how little separated the two sides in terms of genuine quality chances created.

Lille's 55% possession and superiority at set pieces reflected a disciplined, controlled performance. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Monaco win as the most likely outcome at 57%, a call that did not materialise as Lille held firm to take all three points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

🖵 18'

Matías Fernández-Pardo Penalty cancelled

▮ 23'

Ayyoub Bouaddi Yellow Card

HT 0–0

⇄ 46'

Ayyoub Bouaddi ⇄ Nabil Bentaleb

▮ 54'

Matías Fernández-Pardo Yellow Card

Simon Adingra ⇄ Wout Faes

58' ⇄

Aladji Bamba ⇄ Mamadou Coulibaly

58' ⇄

Aleksandr Golovin ⇄ Ansu Fati

59' ⇄

⇄ 62'

Ngal'ayel Mukau ⇄ Ethan Mbappé

⇄ 71'

Félix Correia ⇄ Gaëtan Perrin

⚽ 0–1 72'

Denis Zakaria Own Goal

▮ 75'

Gaëtan Perrin Yellow Card

Mamadou Coulibaly Yellow Card

79' ▮

Jordan Teze ⇄ Mika Biereth

80' ⇄

Thilo Kehrer ⇄ Ilane Touré

80' ⇄

⇄ 89'

Hakon Arnar Haraldsson ⇄ Calvin Verdonk

⇄ 90'

Romain Perraud ⇄ Alexsandro Ribeiro

FT 0–1

Monaco

Match Stats

Lille

55% Ball Possession 45%

0.37 Expected Goals (xG) 0.39

7 Total Shots 7

3 Shots on Goal 2

3 Shots off Goal 4

1 Blocked Shots 1

5 Shots insidebox 5

2 Shots outsidebox 2

5 Corner Kicks 2

2 Offsides 2

13 Fouls 10

1 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

463 Total passes 381

381 Passes accurate 300

82% Passes % 79%

0.41 goals_prevented 0.41

Monaco

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
15 Lamine Camara M	7.0	90'	–	–	–	57 (52%)	4
25 Wout Faes D	6.9	32'	–	–	–	33 (31%)	2
13 Christian Mawissa D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	67 (58%)	1
10 Aleksandr Golovin F	6.9	59'	–	–	–	24 (20%)	2
5 Thilo Kehrer D	6.7	80'	–	–	–	46 (33%)	4
23 Aladji Bamba M	6.7	58'	–	–	–	25 (17%)	–
11 Maghnes Akliouche F	6.6	90'	–	–	2	32 (31%)	1
4 Jordan Teze M	6.6	80'	–	–	1	27 (19%)	–
31 Ansu Fati F	6.6	31'	–	–	–	18 (15%)	–
24 Simon Adingra M	6.5	58'	–	–	2	18 (13%)	2
1 Lukáš Hrádecký G	6.5	90'	–	–	–	29 (15%)	–
28 Mamadou Coulibaly M	6.3	32'	–	–	1	14 (12%)	–
14 Mika Biereth F	6.3	10'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
49 Ilane Touré M	6.3	10'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	–
9 Folarin Balogun F	6.2	90'	–	–	–	11 (6%)	–
6 Denis Zakaria D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	53 (51%)	3

Lille

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
12 Thomas Meunier D	7.6	90'	–	–	1	43 (37%)	2
15 Romain Perraud D	7.5	89'	–	–	1	39 (29%)	2
1 Berke Özer G	7.3	90'	–	–	–	35 (23%)	–
23 Aïssa Mandi D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	50 (44%)	1
6 Nabil Bentaleb M	7.2	45'	–	–	–	28 (23%)	2
10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson M	7.2	89'	–	–	–	24 (19%)	–
3 Nathan Ngoy D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	46 (37%)	–
32 Ayyoub Bouaddi M	6.9	45'	–	–	1	12 (8%)	1
21 Benjamin André M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	37 (32%)	2
8 Ethan Mbappé M	6.9	28'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	3
27 Félix Correia M	6.7	71'	–	–	1	28 (20%)	1
17 Ngal'ayel Mukau M	6.3	62'	–	–	–	18 (14%)	1
28 Gaëtan Perrin F	6.2	19'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	2
7 Matías Fernández-Pardo F	5.3	90'	–	–	1	10 (6%)	1
24 Calvin Verdonk D	—	1'	–	–	–	1	–
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D	—	1'	–	–	–	–	1

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Confidence Medium (64%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Monaco

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Monaco

WDLWL

Lille

WLWDW

Last 3 meetings Monaco · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

Monaco hosts Lille in a crucial Ligue 1 clash on May 9, 2026. Both teams are in contention for European qualification, making this match pivotal. Monaco's attack has been potent, averaging 2.1 goals per game at home, bolstered by the contributions of their key forwards. Conversely, Lille boasts a solid defensive record, conceding just 0.9 goals per away match this season. The outcome may hinge on whether Monaco can break through Lille's defense or if Lille can exploit counter-attacking opportunities. Expect a tightly contested encounter with significant implications for both sides' season ambitions.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lille goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	6	6	3	1
1	10	11	5	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	6	6	3	1
4	3	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Monaco goals · most likely 1–1 (10.7%)

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Head to Head: Monaco vs Lille

0 Monaco Wins

1 Draws

2 Lille Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
24 Aug 2025	Lille	1 - 0	Monaco
22 Feb 2025	Lille	2 - 1	Monaco
18 Oct 2024	Monaco	0 - 0	Lille

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Monaco — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Aug	H Getafe	W	1 - 0
31 Jul	H Cercle Brugge	D	2 - 2
25 Jul	A Sporting CP	L	2 - 0
18 Jul	H Saint-Priest	W	5 - 2
17 May	A Strasbourg	L	5 - 4

Lille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A OH Leuven	W	3 - 6
17 May	H Auxerre	L	0 - 2
10 May	A Monaco	W	0 - 1
03 May	H Le Havre	D	1 - 1
26 Apr	A Paris FC	W	0 - 1

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0