Pafos vs Riga Prédiction

FT
Post on X
Prédiction IA Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Pafos
58%
25%
17%
Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Pafos vs Riga : Sportiko estime que Pafos a 58% de chances de s'imposer, Riga 17% et le match nul 25%. Dernière mise à jour : 22 Oct 2026, 18:41.

Match Report

Pafos and Riga played out a goalless first half in their UEFA Europa Conference League league stage encounter, with neither side able to find a breakthrough despite both teams creating chances. The second half proved far more eventful, with the decisive action concentrated in a frantic ten-minute spell.

Riga broke the deadlock through Caio on 67 minutes, capitalising on a period of pressure that saw the visitors register 15 total shots across the match. Pafos responded quickly, however, with Biel levelling matters just nine minutes later to earn the hosts a share of the points. The game was evenly contested throughout, with possession split exactly 50-50 and Pafos enjoying the better of the set-piece situations, earning ten corners to Riga's four. The expected goals figures slightly favoured Riga at 1.59 to 1.20, reflecting their overall threat.

The closing stages were feisty, with yellow cards shown to Ken Sema and Maksims Tonisevs in the final minutes. Notably, our pre-match AI model had identified a Pafos win as the most likely outcome at 58%, and while the Cypriot side ultimately had to settle for a draw, they avoided defeat on home soil.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

HT 0–0
Alexandre Brito ⇄ Ivan Šunjić
46' ⇄
Ivan Šunjić Yellow Card
49' ▮
João Correia ⇄ Domingos Quina
61' ⇄
Anderson Silva ⇄ Lelê
65' ⇄
⇄ 65'
M. Diop ⇄ Caio
⇄ 65'
Reginaldo Ramires ⇄ M. Badamosi
⚽ 0–1 67'
Caio assist: Salah Oulad M'Hand
Gonçalo Rodrigues ⇄ Ken Sema
71' ⇄
Biel assist: Ken Sema
76' ⚽ 1–1
⇄ 78'
Raki Aouani ⇄ A. Černomordijs
Ken Sema Yellow Card
87' ▮
⇄ 88'
Salah Oulad M'Hand ⇄ Coli Saco
▮ 90'
Maksims Tonisevs Yellow Card
FT 1–1
Pafos

Match Stats

Riga
50% Ball Possession 50%
1.20 Expected Goals (xG) 1.59
13 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Goal 2
7 Shots off Goal 9
3 Blocked Shots 4
8 Shots insidebox 10
5 Shots outsidebox 5
10 Corner Kicks 4
0 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
Red Cards
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
348 Total passes 361
283 Passes accurate 317
81% Passes % 88%
-0.17 goals_prevented -0.17
Pafos
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
20 Biel F 7.9 82' 1 – 3 18 (16%) 2
33 Anderson Silva F 7.3 65' – – 4 13 (10%) –
12 Ken Sema M 7.0 11' – 1 – 6 (6%) –
6 Gonçalo Rodrigues M 6.9 71' – – – 24 (22%) –
7 Bruno D 6.9 82' – – – 39 (28%) 3
18 Lelê F 6.7 17' – – 1 2 (2%) –
26 Ivan Šunjić M 6.6 37' – – – 22 (17%) –
8 Domingos Quina M 6.6 21' – – – 14 (11%) –
50 Alexandre Brito M 6.6 45' – – – 18 (13%) 2
14 Nikolas Ioannou D 6.5 82' – – – 35 (27%) 3
3 Samy Mmaee D 6.5 82' – – – 45 (36%) –
4 David Luiz D 6.3 82' – – – 41 (34%) –
30 Vlad Dragomir M 6.3 82' – – 1 33 (28%) 3
99 Radosław Majecki G 6.2 82' – – – 26 (23%) –
77 João Correia F 6.2 61' – – 1 12 (10%) 1
Riga
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
11 Caio M 7.6 16' 1 – 1 2 (1%) –
18 Salah Oulad M'Hand F 7.6 82' – 1 1 42 (38%) 1
10 Reginaldo Ramires F 7.2 66' – – 2 10 (7%) 2
8 Iago Siqueira Augusto M 7.2 82' – – – 48 (46%) 4
7 Raki Aouani M 7.2 78' – – 1 31 (24%) 3
12 Kenan Pirić G 7.2 82' – – – 21 (19%) –
40 A. Ankrah M 7.0 82' – – – 38 (35%) 3
22 M. Diop M 6.7 66' – – 3 20 (18%) –
13 R. Jurkovskis D 6.7 82' – – 1 31 (26%) –
19 M. Badamosi F 6.7 16' – – 1 4 (3%) –
5 K. Wassom D 6.6 82' – – – 50 (46%) –
21 B. Musah D 6.6 82' – – 1 46 (41%) 2
23 Maksims Tonisevs D 6.5 82' – – – 18 (13%) 2
34 A. Černomordijs D — 4' – – – – –
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Confidence Medium (58%)

At a glance

Notre approche
Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Pafos
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Pafos
LDDDD
Riga
DDWDW
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
58%
10%
Draw
25%
45%
Away
17%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Head to Head: Pafos vs Riga

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Pafos — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
05 Nov A Twente L 3 - 1
31 Oct A Apollon Limassol D 2 - 2
26 Oct A Nea Salamis D 0 - 0
22 Oct H Riga D 1 - 1
19 Oct H Apoel Nicosia D 0 - 0

Riga — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
05 Nov H FK Jablonec D 1 - 1
01 Nov A Ogre United D 0 - 0
26 Oct A Grobiņa W 2 - 5
22 Oct A Pafos D 1 - 1
18 Oct H Super Nova W 2 - 1

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
FC Lugano
3 3 0 0 +7 9
2
Panathinaikos
3 3 0 0 +6 9
3
Twente
3 3 0 0 +6 9
4
Monaco
3 3 0 0 +6 9
5
Brighton
3 2 1 0 +5 7
6
Brann
3 2 1 0 +4 7
7
FC Copenhagen
3 2 1 0 +4 7
8
Universitatea Craiova
3 2 1 0 +4 7
9
Mjallby AIF
3 2 1 0 +4 7
10
St. Truiden
3 2 1 0 +3 7
11
Ajax
3 2 0 1 +6 6
12
Trabzonspor
3 2 0 1 +3 6
13
HNK Hajduk Split
3 2 0 1 +1 6
14
SC Freiburg
3 2 0 1 -1 6
15
FK Crvena Zvezda
3 1 1 1 0 4
16
Atalanta
3 1 1 1 0 4
17
SC Braga
3 1 1 1 -1 4
18
Gent
3 1 1 1 -1 4
19
Riga
3 0 3 0 0 3
20
FC Thun
3 1 0 2 0 3
21
Borac Banja Luka
3 1 0 2 -1 3
22
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3 1 0 2 -3 3
23
FK Jablonec
3 0 2 1 -1 2
24
Aarhus
3 0 2 1 -1 2
25
FC Nordsjaelland
3 0 2 1 -2 2
26
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
3 0 2 1 -2 2
27
Kairat Almaty
3 0 2 1 -4 2
28
CSKA Sofia
3 0 1 2 -2 1
29
FC Iberia 1999
3 0 1 2 -3 1
30
Pafos
3 0 1 2 -4 1
31
Getafe
3 0 1 2 -4 1
32
Heart Of Midlothian
3 0 1 2 -4 1
33
KuPS
3 0 1 2 -4 1
34
FC Midtjylland
3 0 1 2 -6 1
35
Inter Club d'Escaldes
3 0 0 3 -5 0
36
Kauno Žalgiris
3 0 0 3 -10 0

Pafos

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Seong-jae Kim
99 Majecki
14 Ioannou
4 Luiz
3 Mmaee
7 Bruno
6 Guga
50 Brito
30 Dragomir
20 Biel
33 Silva
77 Correia

Starting XI

# Player Pos
99 Radosław Majecki G
7 Bruno D
3 Samy Mmaee D
4 David Luiz D
14 Nikolas Ioannou D
30 Vlad Dragomir M
50 Alexandre Brito M
6 Guga M
77 João Correia F
33 Anderson Silva F
20 Biel F

Substitutes

26 Ivan Šunjić M
8 Domingos Quina M
18 Lelê F
12 Ken Sema M
71 Michalis Papastylianou G
82 Petros Petrou G
72 Kosmas Ioannou D
60 Christos Evzonas M

Riga

Formation: 4-3-1-2 Coach: Seong-jae Kim
12 Pirić
13 Jurkovskis
5 Wassom
21 Musah
23 Tonisevs
7 Aouani
40 Ankrah
22 Diop
8 Augusto
18 M'Hand
10 Ramires

Starting XI

# Player Pos
12 Kenan Pirić G
23 Maksims Tonisevs D
21 Baba Musah D
5 Karl Gameni Wassom D
13 Raivis Jurkovskis D
22 Meïssa Diop M
40 Ahmed Ankrah M
7 Raki Aouani M
8 Iago Siqueira Augusto M
10 Reginaldo Ramires F
18 Salah Oulad M'Hand F

Substitutes

11 Caio Ferreira M
19 Muhammed Badamosi F
34 Antonijs Černomordijs D
44 Marcis Kazainis G
91 Frenks Orols G
6 Coli Saco M
15 Samuel Pedro F
25 Abdulrahman Taiwo F

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