Twente vs Qarabag Prédiction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

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Qarabag

Away

Prédiction IA Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Twente

61%

23%

16%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Twente vs Qarabag : Sportiko estime que Twente a 61% de chances de s'imposer, Qarabag 16% et le match nul 23%. Dernière mise à jour : 20 Aug 2026, 19:54.

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Match Report

Twente dominated possession and created the greater volume of chances at home, but Qarabag held firm through a feisty first half that produced four yellow cards — including bookings for Pröpper, Adelgaard, Silva, and Weidmann — before the interval ended goalless.

The decisive moment came seven minutes into the second half, when Kady Borges broke the deadlock for the Azerbaijani side against the run of play. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Twente win as the most likely outcome at 61%, but Qarabag's clinical efficiency told a different story. Despite finishing with 15 total shots to Qarabag's six, Twente managed only three on target, and the introduction of Wout Weghorst and Marko Pjaca in the hour mark failed to spark the equaliser the hosts needed.

Qarabag defended resolutely in the closing stages, absorbing Twente's pressure to secure a 1–0 victory and advance from the playoff round. The result is a significant upset, with the Dutch side paying the price for wastefulness in front of goal despite their territorial advantage throughout the match.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Robin Pröpper Yellow Card

23' ▮

Aske Adelgaard Yellow Card

28' ▮

▮ 28'

Matheus Silva Yellow Card

Daouda Weidmann Yellow Card

34' ▮

HT 0–0

Robin Pröpper ⇄ Max Bruns

46' ⇄

⚽ 0–1 52'

Kady Borges assist: Musa Qurbanlı

Ramiz Zerrouki Yellow Card

58' ▮

Marko Pjaca ⇄ Kristian Hlynsson

61' ⇄

W. Weghorst ⇄ Sam Lammers

61' ⇄

Daan Rots Yellow Card

66' ▮

⇄ 75'

Musa Qurbanlı ⇄ Dani Bolt

Aske Adelgaard ⇄ Filip Thorvaldsen

83' ⇄

Daouda Weidmann ⇄ Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink

83' ⇄

FT 0–1

Twente

Match Stats

Qarabag

56% Ball Possession 44%

Expected Goals (xG)

15 Total Shots 6

3 Shots on Goal 3

3 Shots off Goal 3

9 Blocked Shots 1

8 Shots insidebox 5

7 Shots outsidebox 1

4 Corner Kicks 3

1 Offsides 1

12 Fouls 4

5 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

385 Total passes 310

317 Passes accurate 241

82% Passes % 78%

goals_prevented

Twente

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
42 Daouda Weidmann M	7.0	45'	–	–	1	20 (17%)	1
43 Ruud Nijstad D	6.9	45'	–	–	–	18 (14%)	2
3 Robin Pröpper D	6.9	45'	–	–	–	30 (27%)	1
9 W. Weghorst F	6.7	45'	–	–	–	9 (4%)	–
27 Sondre Ørjasæter M	6.7	45'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	–
6 Ramiz Zerrouki M	6.6	45'	–	–	–	14 (14%)	1
28 Bart van Rooij D	6.6	45'	–	–	–	14 (12%)	2
11 Daan Rots M	6.5	45'	–	–	–	15 (10%)	1
29 Aske Adelgaard D	6.5	45'	–	–	–	17 (13%)	1
1 Lars Unnerstall G	6.3	45'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	–
7 Marko Pjaca M	6.3	45'	–	–	1	14 (11%)	–

Qarabag

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
5 Bruno Langa D	7.3	45'	–	–	–	17 (14%)	2
4 Bence Várkonyi D	6.9	45'	–	–	–	33 (30%)	–
88 Samuel Lobato M	6.9	45'	–	–	–	23 (18%)	3
8 Marko Janković M	6.9	45'	–	–	–	33 (27%)	1
7 Jaly Mouaddib M	6.9	45'	–	–	1	12 (11%)	1
23 Martin Zlomislić G	6.7	45'	–	–	–	16 (13%)	–
55 Bədavi Hüseynov D	6.7	45'	–	–	–	29 (25%)	–
21 Olexiy Kashchuk M	6.7	45'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	1
22 Musa Qurbanlı F	6.6	45'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	–
2 Matheus Silva D	6.5	45'	–	–	–	12 (9%)	–
20 Kady Borges M	6.5	45'	–	–	–	16 (14%)	–

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Confidence Medium (61%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Twente

Most likely score

2:0 · 13.2%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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Twente

WWWDW

Qarabag

WDWWL

Last 3 meetings Twente · 1W 2D 0L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

61%

45%

Draw

23%

45%

Away

16%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Qarabag goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	8	4	2
1	12	11	4	1
2	13	10	4	1
3	9	6	2	1
4	4	3	1
5	2	1

↑ Twente goals · most likely 2–0 (13.2%)

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Players in form

Twente

M. Pjaca 4 gls

M. Bruns 3 gls

Qarabag

No scorer data.

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

23%

Away Win

16%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

23%

Away Win

16%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

84% Home (No Draw) 16% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

40% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

65% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 12% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

16%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.2%	3.8%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%
1	12.2%	11.2%	3.6%	0.9%	0.2%
2	13.2%	9.7%	3.5%	0.9%	0.2%
3	8.7%	6.3%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%
4	4.2%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Twente	Draw	Qarabag
Twente	41.0%	3.1%	0.7%
Draw	22.6%	15.1%	5.2%
Qarabag	2.6%	3.3%	6.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

42%

1.5

58%

70%

2.5

30%

88%

3.5

12%

Home Exact Goals

14%

28%

27%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

48%

35%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

94%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Twente vs Qarabag

1 Twente Wins

2 Draws

0 Qarabag Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
27 Aug 2026	Qarabag	1 - 4	Twente
28 Aug 2014	Twente	1 - 1	Qarabag
21 Aug 2014	Qarabag	0 - 0	Twente

Twente — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H PSV Eindhoven	W	3 - 2
12 Sep	H ADO Den Haag	W	2 - 0
09 Sep	H Telstar	W	1 - 0
06 Sep	A Groningen	D	2 - 2
30 Aug	A Cambuur	W	1 - 4

Qarabag — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Safa Baku	W	1 - 0
13 Sep	A Zira	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Araz	W	3 - 2
31 Aug	A Sumqayıt	W	0 - 1
27 Aug	H Twente	L	1 - 4

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Twente

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: J. van den Brom

1 Unnerstall

29 Adelgaard

43 Nijstad

3 Pröpper

28 Rooij

6 Zerrouki

27 Ørjasæter

42 Weidmann

11 Rots

7 Pjaca

9 Weghorst

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Lars Unnerstall	G
28	Bart van Rooij	D
3	Robin Pröpper	D
43	Ruud Nijstad	D
29	Aske Adelgaard	D
6	Ramiz Zerrouki	M
7	Marko Pjaca	M
11	Daan Rots	M
42	Daouda Weidmann	M
27	Sondre Ørjasæter	M
9	Wout Weghorst	F

Substitutes

16	Joël Drommel	G
22	Remko Pasveer	G
12	Guilherme Peixoto	D
24	Krzysztof Kurowski	D
38	Max Bruns	D
4	Mathias Kjølø	M
14	Kristian Hlynsson	M
17	Filip Thorvaldsen	F
19	Younes Taha	F
20	Thomas Van den Belt	M
10	Sam Lammers	F
25	Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink	F

Qarabag

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

23 Zlomislić

5 Langa

4 Várkonyi

55 Hüseynov

2 Silva

8 Janković

88 Lobato

7 Mouaddib

20 Borges

21 Kashchuk

22 Qurbanlı

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Martin Zlomislić	G
2	Matheus Silva	D
55	Bədavi Hüseynov	D
4	Bence Várkonyi	D
5	Bruno Langa	D
88	Samuel Lobato	M
8	Marko Janković	M
21	Olexiy Kashchuk	M
20	Kady Borges	M
7	Jaly Mouaddib	M
22	Musa Qurbanlı	F

Substitutes

1	Shakhrudin Magomedaliyev	G
99	Mateusz Kochalski	G
13	Bahlul Mustafazada	D
18	Dani Bolt	D
9	Joni Montiel	M
32	Hikmat Cabrayilzada	D
49	Ali Bashirov	M