Motherwell vs SC Freiburg Prédiction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

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SC Freiburg

Away

Prédiction IA Victoire ou match nul difficile pour SC Freiburg

20%

24%

56%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Motherwell vs SC Freiburg : Sportiko estime que Motherwell a 20% de chances de s'imposer, SC Freiburg 56% et le match nul 24%. Dernière mise à jour : 20 Aug 2026, 20:28.

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Match Report

Motherwell made a dream start to their Europa Conference League playoff tie, with Regan Charles-Cook firing the hosts ahead inside two minutes. However, Freiburg levelled through Matthias Ginter in the 28th minute to ensure the sides went into the break level at 1–1, setting up a tense second half at Fir Park.

The match turned decisively in the 65th minute when Freiburg's Martin Moormann was shown a red card, with Ginter immediately converting the resulting penalty to put the German side in front. Despite playing with ten men, Freiburg remained disciplined and frustrated a Motherwell side that dominated possession at 60% and registered 20 total shots to the visitors' four, but managed only eight on target. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Freiburg win as the most likely outcome at 56%, and that assessment proved correct. A late goal from substitute Keisuke Goto in stoppage time sealed a 3–1 victory for Freiburg, who advance in the playoff round despite the numerical disadvantage they faced for the closing stages.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Regan Charles-Cook assist: Emmanuel Longelo

2' ⚽ 1–0

Joe Hodge Yellow Card

21' ▮

⚽ 1–1 28'

Matthias Ginter assist: Derry Scherhant

Lukas Fadinger Yellow Card

39' ▮

HT 1–1

Regan Charles-Cook ⇄ Sebastian Palmer-Houlden

46' ⇄

▮ 59'

Jan-Niklas Beste Yellow Card

Martin Moormann Red Card

65' ▮

⚽ 1–2 65'

Matthias Ginter Penalty

Alex Lowry Yellow Card

67' ▮

Tawanda Maswanhise ⇄ Willy Vogt

71' ⇄

Alex Lowry ⇄ Ewan Wilson

71' ⇄

⇄ 74'

Yuito Suzuki ⇄ Vincenzo Grifo

⇄ 74'

Jan-Niklas Beste ⇄ Cyriaque Irié

Jake Girdwood-Reich ⇄ Stephen O'Donnell

78' ⇄

Joe Hodge ⇄ Olly Whyte

78' ⇄

⇄ 80'

Maximilian Rosenfelder ⇄ Philipp Lienhart

⇄ 80'

Igor Matanović ⇄ Keisuke Goto

⇄ 90'

Derry Scherhant ⇄ Berkay Yılmaz

⚽ 1–3 90+6'

Keisuke Goto assist: Vincenzo Grifo

FT 1–3

Motherwell

Match Stats

SC Freiburg

40% Ball Possession 60%

Expected Goals (xG)

4 Total Shots 20

1 Shots on Goal 8

3 Shots off Goal 8

0 Blocked Shots 4

3 Shots insidebox 13

1 Shots outsidebox 7

2 Corner Kicks 5

1 Offsides 2

13 Fouls 12

3 Yellow Cards 1

1 Red Cards 0

6 Goalkeeper Saves 0

349 Total passes 503

279 Passes accurate 448

80% Passes % 89%

goals_prevented

Motherwell

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Alex Paulsen G	7.6	86'	–	–	–	48 (35%)	–
17 Regan Charles-Cook F	7.2	45'	1	–	1	4 (4%)	–
3 Jake Girdwood-Reich D	6.9	78'	–	–	–	18 (14%)	5
8 Lukas Fadinger M	6.9	86'	–	–	–	51 (47%)	4
2 Stephen O'Donnell D	6.7	8'	–	–	–	–	–
18 Tawanda Maswanhise F	6.7	71'	–	–	1	11 (5%)	2
47 Sebastian Palmer-Houlden F	6.7	41'	–	–	1	4 (4%)	1
19 Ibrahim Said F	6.6	86'	–	–	–	17 (11%)	5
45 Emmanuel Longelo D	6.5	86'	–	1	–	24 (17%)	–
23 Ewan Wilson D	6.5	16'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
77 Willy Vogt F	6.3	15'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
4 Jamie Knight-Lebel D	6.3	86'	–	–	–	51 (45%)	–
25 Olly Whyte M	6.3	8'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
71 Joe Hodge M	5.9	78'	–	–	–	44 (36%)	1
5 Martin Moormann D	5.9	65'	–	–	1	42 (38%)	1
11 Alex Lowry M	5.9	70'	–	–	–	18 (9%)	–

SC Freiburg

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
28 Matthias Ginter D	8.2	86'	2	–	3	76 (72%)	3
16 Yannik Engelhardt M	7.3	86'	–	–	1	48 (43%)	2
31 Igor Matanović F	7.0	80'	–	1	4	20 (14%)	3
8 Maximilian Eggestein M	7.0	86'	–	–	1	52 (43%)	–
29 Philipp Treu D	7.0	86'	–	–	2	49 (45%)	4
37 Maximilian Rosenfelder D	7.0	80'	–	–	–	81 (77%)	7
1 Mio Backhaus G	6.9	86'	–	–	–	29 (27%)	–
7 Derry Scherhant M	6.9	86'	–	–	2	29 (26%)	–
33 Jordy Makengo D	6.7	86'	–	–	–	45 (40%)	1
32 Vincenzo Grifo M	6.6	12'	–	–	–	12 (12%)	–
19 Jan-Niklas Beste M	6.5	74'	–	–	1	23 (19%)	1
22 Cyriaque Irié F	6.3	12'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
14 Yuito Suzuki M	6.2	74'	–	–	2	24 (16%)	–
3 Philipp Lienhart D	—	6'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	–
42 Keisuke Goto F	—	6'	–	–	–	–	–

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Confidence Medium (56%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Victoire ou match nul difficile pour SC Freiburg

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.7%

Both teams to score

57%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

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Motherwell

LLLWD

SC Freiburg

DWWWW

Last 1 meetings Motherwell · 0W 0D 1L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

SC Freiburg goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	7	5	2	1
1	8	14	8	3	1
2	7	9	6	2	1
3	3	4	3	1
4	1	2	1
5

↑ Motherwell goals · most likely 1–1 (13.7%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

56%

Draw

24%

Home Win

20%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

48%

2.5

52%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

56%

Draw

24%

Home Win

20%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

55% Home (No Draw) 45% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

19% Home Win by 2+ 15% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

39% Home Scores More 32% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

48%

2.5

52%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.9%	6.7%	5.4%	2.3%	0.8%
1	7.7%	13.7%	7.9%	3.4%	1.1%
2	6.8%	8.8%	5.7%	2.5%	0.8%
3	3.3%	4.3%	2.8%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.2%	1.6%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

50%

1.5

50%

78%

2.5

22%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

29%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Motherwell	Draw	SC Freiburg
Motherwell	24.4%	5.3%	2.6%
Draw	14.1%	17.6%	14.1%
SC Freiburg	1.9%	3.8%	16.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

27%

36%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Motherwell vs SC Freiburg

0 Motherwell Wins

0 Draws

1 SC Freiburg Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
27 Aug 2026	SC Freiburg	4 - 1	Motherwell

Motherwell — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Dundee	L	2 - 1
15 Sep	H Aberdeen	L	0 - 4
05 Sep	A Rangers	L	1 - 0
02 Sep	H Dundee Utd	W	3 - 0
30 Aug	A ST Mirren	D	3 - 3

SC Freiburg — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Eintracht Frankfurt	D	2 - 2
12 Sep	H Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	5 - 0
05 Sep	A SC Paderborn 07	W	0 - 1
30 Aug	H Werder Bremen	W	4 - 1
27 Aug	H Motherwell	W	4 - 1

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

SC Freiburg

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: J. Schuster

1 Backhaus

33 Makengo

37 Rosenfelder

28 Ginter

29 Treu

16 Engelhardt

8 Eggestein

7 Scherhant

14 Suzuki

19 Beste

31 Matanović

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Mio Backhaus	G
29	Philipp Treu	D
28	Matthias Ginter	D
37	Maximilian Rosenfelder	D
33	Jordy Makengo	D
8	Maximilian Eggestein	M
16	Yannick Engelhardt	M
19	Jan-Niklas Beste	M
14	Yuito Suzuki	M
7	Derry Scherhant	M
31	Igor Matanović	F

Substitutes

21	Florian Müller	G
24	Jannik Huth	G
3	Philipp Lienhart	D
5	Anthony Jung	D
17	Lukas Kübler	D
27	Berkay Yılmaz	D
30	Christian Günter	D
43	Bruno Ogbus	D
6	Patrick Osterhage	M
22	Cyriaque Irié	F
32	Vincenzo Grifo	M
42	Keisuke Goto	F

Motherwell

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Alfred Johansson

1 Paulsen

45 Longelo

5 Moormann

4 Knight-Lebel

3 Girdwood-Reich

71 Hodge

8 Fadinger

11 Lowry

17 Charles-Cook

18 Maswanhise

19 Said

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Alex Paulsen	G
3	Jake Girdwood-Reich	D
4	Jamie Knight-Lebel	D
5	Martin Moormann	D
45	Emmanuel Longelo	D
11	Alex Lowry	M
8	Lukas Fadinger	M
71	Joe Hodge	M
19	Ibrahim Said	F
18	Tawanda Maswanhise	F
17	Regan Charles-Cook	F

Substitutes

21	Matty Connelly	G
31	Jack McConnell	G
2	Stephen O'Donnell	D
23	Ewan Wilson	D
25	Olly Whyte	M
27	Mikey Booth	M
29	Zander McAllister	M
34	Aaron Thomson	D
35	Blane Watson	M
24	Luca Ross	M
47	Sebastian Palmer-Houlden	F
77	Willy Vogt	F