Elche vs Atletico Madrid Prédiction

La Liga · Regular Season - 33

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Atletico Madrid

Away

Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

Prédiction IA Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Atletico Madrid

17%

21%

62%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Elche vs Atletico Madrid : Sportiko estime que Elche a 17% de chances de s'imposer, Atletico Madrid 62% et le match nul 21%. Dernière mise à jour : 27 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Elche produced a stunning upset against Atletico Madrid, winning 3–2 in a breathless La Liga encounter that saw five goals and a red card inside the opening 35 minutes. Nicolás González opened the scoring in the 10th minute, but David Affengruber equalised eight minutes later before a red card for Thiago Almada in the 30th minute shifted the dynamics dramatically. André Silva converted a penalty on 33 minutes to put Atletico ahead, only for González to restore parity almost immediately, with VAR confirming the goal stood despite the frantic protests.

The sides went into the break level at 2–2, and the second half was a more measured affair with Atletico dominating possession — finishing the game with 72% of the ball and 14 total shots to Elche's six. However, it was the hosts who found the decisive moment, André Silva completing his brace on 75 minutes to seal a remarkable victory for Elche.

Our pre-match AI model had rated an Atletico Madrid win as most likely at 62%, a call that proved wide of the mark as the numbers rarely told the full story on the night.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 10'

Nicolás González

David Affengruber assist: Tete Morente

18' ⚽ 1–1

▮ 30'

Thiago Almada Red Card

André Silva Penalty

33' ⚽ 2–1

⚽ 2–2 34'

Nicolás González assist: Robin Le Normand

▮ 36'

Clément Lenglet Yellow Card

🖵 36'

Nicolás González Goal confirmed

▮ 38'

Julio Díaz Yellow Card

Buba Sangare Yellow Card

45+4' ▮

Aleix Febas Yellow Card

45+4' ▮

HT 2–2

⇄ 46'

Robin Le Normand ⇄ Nahuel Molina

⇄ 46'

Julio Díaz ⇄ Marc Pubill

Buba Sangare ⇄ Víctor Chust

60' ⇄

⇄ 62'

Alex Baena ⇄ Giuliano Simeone

⇄ 62'

⇄ Antoine Griezmann

⇄ 62'

Obed Vargas

Tete Morente ⇄ Josan

67' ⇄

Rafa Mir ⇄ Álvaro Rodriguez

67' ⇄

Martim Neto ⇄ Lucas Cepeda

67' ⇄

André Silva assist: David Affengruber

75' ⚽ 3–2

Léo Pétrot ⇄ Pedro Bigas

82' ⇄

FT 3–2

Elche

Match Stats

Atletico Madrid

72% Ball Possession 28%

2.78 Expected Goals (xG) 1.01

14 Total Shots 6

6 Shots on Goal 3

6 Shots off Goal 2

2 Blocked Shots 1

10 Shots insidebox 2

4 Shots outsidebox 4

13 Corner Kicks 3

1 Offsides 2

11 Fouls 12

2 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 1

1 Goalkeeper Saves 4

654 Total passes 259

580 Passes accurate 189

89% Passes % 73%

-0.22 goals_prevented -0.22

Elche

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
22 David Affengruber D	9.6	90'	1	1	2	107 (95%)	1
14 Aleix Febas M	7.7	90'	–	–	1	85 (78%)	2
9 André Silva F	7.6	90'	2	–	3	16 (13%)	2
21 Léo Pétrot D	7.2	82'	–	–	–	74 (62%)	–
24 Lucas Cepeda F	7.2	23'	–	–	1	8 (8%)	2
17 Josan M	7.2	23'	–	–	–	12 (12%)	2
23 Víctor Chust D	7.2	30'	–	–	–	36 (35%)	1
11 Germán Valera M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	40 (31%)	–
12 Gonzalo Villar M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	90 (85%)	–
16 Martim Neto M	6.9	67'	–	–	–	35 (28%)	3
6 Pedro Bigas D	6.7	8'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–
42 Buba Sangare D	6.7	60'	–	–	–	62 (60%)	2
1 Matías Dituro G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	27 (23%)	–
20 Álvaro Rodriguez F	6.6	23'	–	–	2	4 (1%)	–
15 Tete Morente M	6.2	67'	–	1	–	40 (34%)	–
10 Rafa Mir F	5.7	67'	–	–	2	13 (10%)	–

Atletico Madrid

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Nicolás González M	9.5	90'	2	–	3	22 (16%)	3
21 Obed Vargas M	7.0	62'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	2
7 Antoine Griezmann F	6.9	28'	–	–	1	18 (14%)	1
8 Pablo Barrios M	6.9	28'	–	–	1	18 (18%)	1
18 Marc Pubill D	6.7	45'	–	–	–	12 (11%)	1
20 Giuliano Simeone F	6.7	28'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	1
24 Robin Le Normand D	6.5	45'	–	1	–	17 (10%)	–
15 Clément Lenglet D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	26 (21%)	2
34 Julio Díaz D	6.3	45'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	3
5 Johnny Cardoso M	6.3	90'	–	–	–	25 (21%)	3
10 Alex Baena F	6.2	62'	–	–	–	10 (6%)	–
16 Nahuel Molina D	6.2	45'	–	–	–	7 (4%)	1
32 Javier Boñar D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	21 (14%)	2
13 Jan Oblak G	6.0	90'	–	–	–	34 (14%)	–
4 Rodrigo Mendoza M	5.9	62'	–	1	–	13 (10%)	–
11 Thiago Almada F	4.3	30'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	1

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Confidence Medium (57%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Atletico Madrid

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Elche

WLDLL

Atletico Madrid

WWWLL

Last 3 meetings Elche · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga clash, Elche hosts Atlético Madrid on April 22, 2026. Elche, currently battling relegation, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.1 goals per match this season. In contrast, Atlético Madrid sits in the top four, boasting a solid defense and a potent attack led by their prolific striker, who averages 0.75 goals per game. Historically, Atlético has dominated this fixture, winning 70% of their encounters in the last five years. Expect Atlético to leverage their tactical discipline and offensive firepower to secure a crucial away victory.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Atletico Madrid goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	11	11	7	4	1
1	5	10	10	7	3	1
2	2	5	5	3	2	1
3	1	1	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Elche goals · most likely 0–2 (10.8%)

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Players in form

Elche

Fer Niño 5 gls

Atletico Madrid

Álex Baena 4 gls

J. David 3 gls

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Head to Head: Elche vs Atletico Madrid

1 Elche Wins

1 Draws

1 Atletico Madrid Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
23 Aug 2025	Atletico Madrid	1 - 1	Elche
14 May 2023	Elche	1 - 0	Atletico Madrid
29 Dec 2022	Atletico Madrid	2 - 0	Elche

Voir les 10 confrontations — Premium

Elche — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Espanyol	W	1 - 3
15 Sep	H Real Madrid	L	2 - 3
12 Sep	A Athletic Club	D	1 - 1
07 Sep	H Real Sociedad	L	2 - 3
28 Aug	A Racing Santander	L	3 - 2

Atletico Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Madrid	W	2 - 1
16 Sep	H Osasuna	W	4 - 0
13 Sep	A Real Sociedad	W	0 - 3
09 Sep	A Liverpool	L	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Athletic Club	L	3 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3