FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau Prédiction

Challenge League · Regular Season - 9

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FC Winterthur

Home

2 : 1

HT 1 - 1

FC Aarau

Away

Prédiction IA FC Winterthur ou match nul

45%

26%

29%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau : Sportiko estime que FC Winterthur a 45% de chances de s'imposer, FC Aarau 29% et le match nul 26%. Dernière mise à jour : 18 Sep 2026, 20:09.

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1st Half Over 0.5 75%

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Timeline

⇄ 7'

Penalty

15' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 20'

Yellow Card

33' ▮

Tibault Citherlet Yellow Card

38' ▮

⚽ 1–1 40'

Penalty

HT 1–1

▮ 56'

Yellow Card

▮ 56'

Red Card

Alexandre Jankewitz

64' ⇄

Fabian Rohner ⇄ Severin Ottiger

64' ⇄

Severin Ottiger Yellow Card

65' ▮

⇄ 68'

73' ⇄

Remo Arnold

73' ⇄

Theo Golliard

76' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 84'

⇄ Roman Buess

85' ⇄

▮ 90'

Yellow Card

FT 2–1

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Notre approche

FC Winterthur ou match nul

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.4%

Both teams to score

65%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

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FC Winterthur

WWWDD

FC Aarau

LDWDW

Live insights

82' time check 80% sure

Min 82: FC Winterthur leads 2-1. Win probability: 92.3%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 7.7%.

77' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 2-1! FC Winterthur win probability: 89.1%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 34.1%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Still level at 1-1. Draw looking likely at 65.8%. Late goal chance: 38.1%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-1. Teams level going into the 2nd half. Home win 2H: 36.7%, Away win 2H: 25.4%.

41' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 36.2%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

45%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

29%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FC Aarau goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	4	4	2	1
1	6	11	7	3	1
2	6	9	7	3	1
3	4	6	4	2	1
4	2	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

↑ FC Winterthur goals · most likely 1–1 (11.4%)

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Away Win

29%

Draw

26%

Both Teams To Score

65% BTTS Yes 35% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

15%

1.5

85%

37%

2.5

63%

59%

3.5

41%

78%

4.5

22%

90%

5.5

10%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Away Win

29%

Draw

26%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

61% Home (No Draw) 39% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

25% Home Win by 2+ 14% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Home Scores More 29% Away Scores More 26% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

15%

1.5

85%

37%

2.5

63%

59%

3.5

41%

78%

4.5

22%

90%

5.5

10%

Both Teams To Score

65% BTTS Yes 35% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

22%

18%

12%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.1%	4.2%	4.0%	1.9%	0.7%
1	5.7%	11.4%	7.3%	3.5%	1.3%
2	6.5%	9.3%	6.7%	3.2%	1.2%
3	4.0%	5.7%	4.1%	2.0%	0.7%
4	1.8%	2.6%	1.9%	0.9%	0.3%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

43%

1.5

57%

72%

2.5

28%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

18%

26%

29%

17%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FC Winterthur	Draw	FC Aarau
FC Winterthur	28.2%	4.7%	2.3%
Draw	15.5%	14.5%	10.7%
FC Aarau	3.0%	4.6%	16.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

46%

1.5

54%

73%

2.5

27%

90%

3.5

11%

Home Exact Goals

16%

30%

27%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

24%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

FC Winterthur — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H FC Aarau	W	2 - 1
11 Sep	A Étoile Carouge	W	0 - 1
04 Sep	H Neuchatel Xamax FC	W	4 - 0
01 Sep	A Stade Nyonnais	D	2 - 2
28 Aug	H Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	D	1 - 1

FC Aarau — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A FC Winterthur	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	H SC Kriens	D	2 - 2
04 Sep	H Rapperswil	W	3 - 2
31 Aug	A FC WIL 1900	D	2 - 2
28 Aug	H Neuchatel Xamax FC	W	2 - 1

Challenge League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	9	6	3	0	17	3	+14	21
2	FC Winterthur	9	5	3	1	19	8	+11	18
3	Yverdon Sport	9	4	4	1	14	9	+5	16
4	SC Kriens	9	4	2	3	16	11	+5	14
5	FC Aarau	9	3	3	3	14	16	-2	12
6	Neuchatel Xamax FC	9	4	0	5	12	17	-5	12
7	Rapperswil	9	3	1	5	15	16	-1	10
8	Étoile Carouge	9	2	3	4	8	12	-4	9
9	FC WIL 1900	9	2	3	4	15	21	-6	9
10	Stade Nyonnais	9	0	2	7	6	23	-17	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.