Arouca vs Nacional Prédiction
FT
Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
Prédiction IA
Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Arouca
58%
25%
17%
Victoire à domicile
Match nul
Victoire extérieure
Pronostic Arouca vs Nacional : Sportiko estime que Arouca a 58% de chances de s'imposer, Nacional 17% et le match nul 25%. Dernière mise à jour : 1 Nov 2026, 17:25.
Pronostics Premium
Premium- 2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
- 1st Half Over 0.5 72%
- Moins de 3,5 buts 71%
Les membres Premium avaient ces pronostics avant le coup d'envoi.
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Timeline
HT 0–0
Taichi Fukui
⇄ Pablo Gozálbez
59'
⇄
Tiago Esgaio
assist: Naïs Djouahra
64'
⚽
1–0
⇄
70'
Stavros Gavriel
⇄ Matchoi Djaló
⇄
70'
Chiheb Labidi
⇄ Danel Dongmo
⇄
71'
N. Kader
⇄ Pablo
Ivan Barbero
⇄ Dylan Nandín
71'
⇄
▮
74'
Matchoi Djaló
Yellow Card
Mateo Flores
⇄ Hyun-ju Lee
75'
⇄
Alfonso Trezza
⇄ Brian Mansilla
75'
⇄
Orest Lebedenko
Yellow Card
76'
▮
▮
78'
Danel Dongmo
Yellow Card
⇄
81'
Miguel Baeza
⇄ Daniel Júnior
⇄
81'
Min-kyu Song
⇄ Allen Obando
Pablo Gozálbez
Yellow Card
90+4'
▮
FT 1–0
Arouca
Match Stats
Nacional
62%
Ball Possession
38%
0.74
Expected Goals (xG)
0.34
12
Total Shots
5
5
Shots on Goal
1
5
Shots off Goal
2
2
Blocked Shots
2
6
Shots insidebox
4
6
Shots outsidebox
1
8
Corner Kicks
2
0
Offsides
1
6
Fouls
10
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
552
Total passes
337
486
Passes accurate
271
8
Free Kicks
6
Arouca
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jose Fontán D | 7.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 122 (114%) | – |
| 15 Javi Sánchez D | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 85 (77%) | – |
| 7 Naïs Djouahra M | 7.7 | 90' | – | 1 | 2 | 41 (38%) | – |
| 28 Tiago Esgaio D | 7.6 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 40 (28%) | 1 |
| 18 Orest Lebedenko D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 55 (48%) | 1 |
| 6 Espen Van Ee M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 62 (58%) | – |
| 21 Mateo Flores M | 7.2 | 75' | – | – | 1 | 49 (47%) | 3 |
| 12 Ignacio de Arruabarrena G | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 19 (14%) | – |
| 14 Hyun-ju Lee M | 7.0 | 15' | – | – | 1 | 4 (4%) | – |
| 8 Taichi Fukui M | 6.9 | 59' | – | – | – | 27 (23%) | – |
| 23 Dylan Nandín F | 6.9 | 19' | – | – | 2 | 4 (3%) | – |
| 24 Brian Mansilla F | 6.8 | 15' | – | – | – | 7 (5%) | 1 |
| 10 Pablo Gozálbez M | 6.6 | 31' | – | – | 1 | 10 (7%) | – |
| 19 Alfonso Trezza M | 6.6 | 75' | – | – | – | 17 (14%) | 1 |
| 17 Ivan Barbero F | 6.3 | 71' | – | – | 2 | 6 (4%) | 1 |
Nacional
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Renato Marin G | 7.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (34%) | – |
| 38 Ze Vitor D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 62 (54%) | 3 |
| 33 Francisco Gonçalves D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 54 (44%) | 1 |
| 21 Williams Kokolo D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 35 (29%) | 1 |
| 10 Daniel Júnior M | 6.6 | 9' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 7 Markus Jensen D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 34 (24%) | 3 |
| 15 Chiheb Labidi M | 6.5 | 70' | – | – | – | 23 (18%) | 3 |
| 8 Miguel Baeza M | 6.4 | 81' | – | – | 1 | 17 (17%) | – |
| 99 Pablo F | 6.4 | 19' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | – |
| 6 Matheus Dias M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 22 (16%) | 2 |
| 9 Allen Obando F | 6.3 | 9' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 12 Min-kyu Song M | 6.2 | 81' | – | – | – | 18 (13%) | – |
| 31 Danel Dongmo M | 6.2 | 20' | – | – | – | 4 (3%) | – |
| 20 Matchoi Djaló M | 6.1 | 20' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 29 N. Kader F | 6.0 | 71' | – | – | 1 | 8 (4%) | 1 |
| 11 Stavros Gavriel M | 5.9 | 70' | – | – | 1 | 5 (4%) | – |
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Confidence
Medium (58%)
At a glance
Notre approche
Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Arouca
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Arouca
LWWWW
Nacional
LWLLL
Last 3 meetings
Arouca · 3W 0D 0L
Match summary
Arouca will face Nacional in what promises to be a competitive Primeira Liga clash. Arouca has shown solid form at home, with a defense that has conceded an average of 1 goal per match this season. Nacional, on the other hand, struggles on the road, having recorded only 1 win in their last 5 away fixtures, indicating potential vulnerabilities in their away form. Both teams will be keen to secure points, making this match critical for their respective standings. Expect a tight contest, with Arouca looking to exploit Nacional's away difficulties.
Live insights
75'
time check
80% sure
Min 75: Arouca leads 1-0. Win probability: 89.9%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 10.1%.
65'
Goal
70% sure
Goal! Score now 1-0. Arouca win: 86.8%. BTTS: 22.1%.
45'
half time
65% sure
Half-time: 0-0. Second half goals expected - Over 0.5 remaining: 73.5%. Over 1.5 remaining: 41.5%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
58%
45%
Draw
25%
45%
Away
17%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Arouca
Barbero
5 gls
Nacional
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Arouca vs Nacional
3
Arouca Wins
0
Draws
0
Nacional Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Arouca | 3 - 0 | Nacional |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Nacional | 1 - 2 | Arouca |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Nacional | 1 - 2 | Arouca |
Arouca — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov | A Famalicao | L | 1 - 0 |
| 01 Nov | H Nacional | W | 1 - 0 |
| 24 Oct | A Alverca | W | 0 - 1 |
| 18 Oct | A CF Os Belenenses | W | 3 - 4 |
| 11 Oct | H Estrela | W | 1 - 0 |
Nacional — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | A Arouca | L | 1 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | H SC Braga | W | 1 - 0 |
| 17 Oct | A Sanjoanense | L | 1 - 0 |
| 11 Oct | A Rio Ave | L | 3 - 2 |
| 19 Sep | H Famalicao | L | 0 - 4 |
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Porto
|
10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 30 |
| 2 |
Benfica
|
10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 8 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 |
Sporting CP
|
11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 |
Santa Clara
|
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 |
Arouca
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |
Academico Viseu
|
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 20 |
| 7 |
GIL Vicente
|
10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 |
SC Braga
|
10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 |
Moreirense
|
11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 |
Famalicao
|
11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |
Alverca
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |
Estrela
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 |
Vitória SC
|
10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 |
Maritimo
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 |
Casa Pia
|
11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 |
Nacional
|
10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 7 |
| 17 |
Rio Ave
|
10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 |
Estoril
|
10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 |
Nacional
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: João Henriques
1
Bellucci
21
Kokolo
38
Vitor
33
Gonçalves
7
Jensen
8
Baeza
6
Dias
12
Min-Kyu
15
Labidi
11
Gavriel
29
Kader
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Bellucci | G |
| 7 | M. Jensen | D |
| 33 | Francisco Gonçalves | D |
| 38 | Zé Vitor | D |
| 21 | W. Kokolo | D |
| 6 | Matheus Dias | M |
| 8 | Miguel Baeza | M |
| 11 | S. Gavriel | M |
| 15 | C. Labidi | M |
| 12 | Song Min-Kyu | M |
| 29 | N. Kader | F |
Substitutes
| 99 | Pablo Ruan | F |
| 9 | A. Obando | F |
| 5 | José Gomes | D |
| 13 | João Gonçalves | G |
| 14 | Ivanildo Fernandes | D |
| 31 | D. Dongmo | M |
| 20 | Matchoi Djaló | M |
| 10 | Daniel Júnior | M |
| 88 | Deivison | M |
Arouca
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Arturo Ruiz
12
Arruabarrena
18
Lebedenko
3
Fontán
15
Sánchez
28
Esgaio
21
Flores
6
Ee
7
Djouahra
8
Fukui
19
Trezza
17
Barbero
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | I. de Arruabarrena | G |
| 28 | Tiago Esgaio | D |
| 15 | Javi Sánchez | D |
| 3 | José Fontán | D |
| 18 | O. Lebedenko | D |
| 6 | E. van Ee | M |
| 21 | Mateo Flores | M |
| 19 | A. Trezza | M |
| 8 | T. Fukui | M |
| 7 | N. Djouahra | M |
| 17 | Barbero | F |
Substitutes
| 37 | Mario Climent | D |
| 10 | Pablo Gozálbez | M |
| 14 | Lee Hyun-Ju | M |
| 24 | B. Mansilla | F |
| 9 | F. Mayulu | F |
| 4 | Diogo Monteiro | D |
| 23 | D. Nandín | F |
| 77 | S. Park | F |
| 5 | B. Popović | D |
| 2 | L. Shahar | D |
| 1 | J. Vinarčík | G |
| 27 | Mamadu Balde | D |