Guimaraes vs Arouca Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 1

08 Aug 2026, 17:00

Post on X

Arouca

Away

Prédiction IA Guimaraes ou match nul

46%

28%

26%

Victoire à domicile · 1.95 Match nul · 3.66 Victoire extérieure · 4.16

Guimaraes vs Arouca prediction: Sportiko gives Guimaraes a 46% chance of winning, Arouca 26% and the draw 28%. Last updated 8 Aug 2026, 08:01.

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76% 74% 72%

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.2%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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Guimaraes

WLLLW

Arouca

WWDLW

Last 3 meetings Guimaraes · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

Guimaraes will host Arouca in this Primeira Liga matchup, aiming to capitalize on their attacking prowess. Historically, Guimaraes has shown strength at home, with a solid record in recent fixtures, scoring an average of 2 goals per game. Arouca, on the other hand, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match this season. This clash will be crucial for both teams as they seek to secure vital points early in the league. The outcome could hinge on Guimaraes' ability to exploit Arouca's defensive vulnerabilities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

46%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

26%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Arouca goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	7	5	2	1
1	9	14	7	3	1
2	8	9	5	2	1
3	4	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Guimaraes goals · most likely 1–1 (14.2%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

28%

Away Win

26%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

28%

Away Win

26%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

59% Home (No Draw) 41% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Home Win by 2+ 12% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

41% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals 29% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.2%	7.2%	5.1%	2.0%	0.6%
1	9.2%	14.2%	7.3%	2.8%	0.8%
2	7.7%	8.9%	5.2%	2.0%	0.6%
3	3.6%	4.2%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.3%	1.5%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

29%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Guimaraes	Draw	Arouca
Guimaraes	22.4%	4.1%	1.8%
Draw	17.5%	18.9%	12.5%
Arouca	2.5%	4.5%	15.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

59%

1.5

41%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

24%

34%

24%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Guimaraes vs Arouca

0 Guimaraes Wins

2 Draws

1 Arouca Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
07 Feb 2026	Arouca	3 - 2	Guimaraes
30 Aug 2025	Guimaraes	1 - 1	Arouca
18 Jan 2025	Guimaraes	2 - 2	Arouca

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Guimaraes — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Chaves	W	2 - 0
16 May	A Nacional	L	2 - 0
11 May	H Casa Pia	L	0 - 1
04 May	A Sporting CP	L	5 - 1
25 Apr	H Rio Ave	W	2 - 0

Arouca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
16 May	H Tondela	W	3 - 1
11 May	A GIL Vicente	W	1 - 3
02 May	H Santa Clara	D	2 - 2
24 Apr	A Alverca	L	2 - 1
19 Apr	H Estrela	W	1 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	D	GF	GA	Pts
1	Famalicao	1	1	1	1	1
2	Estoril	1	1	1	1	1
3	Estrela	0	0	0	0	0
4	Guimaraes	0	0	0	0	0
5	GIL Vicente	0	0	0	0	0
6	Rio Ave	0	0	0	0	0
7	Santa Clara	0	0	0	0	0
8	Moreirense	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Porto	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sporting CP	0	0	0	0	0
11	Benfica	0	0	0	0	0
12	Maritimo	0	0	0	0	0
13	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0
14	Nacional	0	0	0	0	0
15	Arouca	0	0	0	0	0
16	Casa Pia	0	0	0	0	0
17	Academico Viseu	0	0	0	0	0
18	Alverca	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.