Le Mans vs Monaco Prédiction

Ligue 1 Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 10
FT
Post on X
Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Prédiction IA Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Monaco
18%
26%
56%
Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Le Mans vs Monaco : Sportiko estime que Le Mans a 18% de chances de s'imposer, Monaco 56% et le match nul 26%. Dernière mise à jour : 9 Nov 2026, 21:00.

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Match Report

Monaco looked the more composed side in the first half and were rewarded just before the break when Mamadou Coulibaly struck to give the visitors a 1–0 lead at half-time. Despite Monaco's possession advantage sitting at 52%, it was Le Mans who generated the greater volume of chances, finishing the match with 19 total shots to Monaco's six, though the hosts struggled to convert that pressure into clear-cut opportunities.

Monaco made a triple substitution just after the hour mark, withdrawing Coulibaly among others, as they sought to manage the game. Le Mans continued to push and their persistence paid off deep into stoppage time when Erwan Colas equalised in the 90th minute, denying Monaco what had looked like a comfortable away win.

The final scoreline of 1–1 reflected a match where Le Mans' expected goals figure of 1.53 ultimately proved more accurate than the result suggested for much of the evening. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Monaco win as the most likely outcome at 56%, a call that looked well-founded until Colas intervened at the death.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 40'
Mamadou Coulibaly
HT 0–1
⇄ 54'
Aleksandr Golovin ⇄ Paris Brunner
⇄ 54'
Mathys Detourbet ⇄ T. Minamino
⇄ 54'
Matthis Abline ⇄ Folarin Balogun
Jean Vercruysse
66' ⇄
Dame Gueye ⇄ Erwan Colas
66' ⇄
⇄ 67'
Mamadou Coulibaly ⇄ Jordan Teze
Daouda Traore ⇄ Antoine Rabillard
74' ⇄
Louis Mafouta ⇄ William Harhouz
74' ⇄
Lucas Buades ⇄ Noa Boissé
85' ⇄
⇄ 88'
Nazinho ⇄ Christian Mawissa
Erwan Colas
90' ⚽ 1–1
FT 1–1
Le Mans

Match Stats

Monaco
48% Ball Possession 52%
1.53 Expected Goals (xG) 1.02
19 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Goal 3
9 Shots off Goal 2
5 Blocked Shots 1
12 Shots insidebox 3
7 Shots outsidebox 3
8 Corner Kicks 7
2 Offsides 3
16 Fouls 8
0 Yellow Cards 0
0 Red Cards 0
2 Goalkeeper Saves 4
424 Total passes 471
342 Passes accurate 393
8 Free Kicks 15
Le Mans
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
28 Erwan Colas F 8.1 24' 1 – 1 5 (3%) –
26 Rayan Bamba D 7.3 90' – – 2 60 (57%) 1
14 Louis Mafouta F 7.0 74' – – – 18 (11%) –
98 Nicolas Kocik G 6.9 90' – – – 30 (23%) –
9 Antoine Rabillard F 6.8 16' – – – 12 (12%) 1
17 S. Yohou D 6.7 90' – – 1 46 (37%) 4
29 Lucas Bretelle M 6.6 90' – – – 48 (43%) 4
20 William Harhouz F 6.6 16' – – – 4 (3%) –
5 Harold Voyer D 6.6 90' – – – 56 (43%) –
22 Lucas Calodat M 6.5 90' – – 2 31 (24%) 2
23 Daouda Traore M 6.5 74' – – 3 28 (23%) –
15 Noa Boissé D 6.4 5' – – – 8 (7%) –
10 Jean Vercruysse M 6.4 66' – – – 29 (23%) 3
18 Lucas Buades M 6.3 85' – – 5 35 (25%) 2
25 Dame Gueye F 6.2 66' – – 4 10 (6%) –
Seamus Maughan 6.1 24' – – 1 4 (2%) –
Monaco
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
28 Mamadou Coulibaly M 7.6 67' 1 – 1 23 (19%) 1
1 Lukáš Hrádecký G 7.3 90' – – – 30 (21%) –
15 Eric Dier D 7.2 90' – – – 69 (63%) 1
8 Lamine Camara M 6.8 90' – – 1 50 (44%) 1
72 Sadibou Sané D 6.8 90' – – – 67 (62%) –
29 Paris Brunner F 6.7 36' – – – 9 (7%) 1
4 Jordan Teze D 6.6 23' – – – 21 (20%) –
9 Folarin Balogun F 6.5 36' – – 1 6 (5%) –
20 Nazinho D 6.5 88' – – – 51 (41%) 1
6 Denis Zakaria M 6.4 90' – – – 32 (26%) –
2 Vanderson D 6.4 90' – – 2 62 (45%) 2
13 Christian Mawissa D 6.3 2' – – – 5 (4%) –
18 T. Minamino M 6.3 36' – – – 11 (10%) –
7 Mathys Detourbet M 6.2 54' – – 1 15 (13%) 3
10 Aleksandr Golovin M 6.1 54' – – – 18 (11%) –
11 Matthis Abline F 6.0 54' – – – 2 (2%) –
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Confidence Medium (56%)

At a glance

Notre approche
Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Monaco
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Le Mans
DLDLL
Monaco
DWLDW

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Le Mans faces Monaco on November 7, 2026. Monaco currently boasts a strong attacking lineup, with an average of 2.1 goals per match this season, while Le Mans has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. The disparity in league standings indicates Monaco’s superior form, as they typically dominate possession and create more chances. Le Mans will need to tighten their defense and capitalize on set-pieces to compete effectively against a high-pressing Monaco side. Overall, it will be crucial for Le Mans to execute a disciplined game plan to keep the match competitive.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
18%
10%
Draw
26%
45%
Away
56%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Le Mans
L. Mafouta 4 gls
A. Bourabaa 3 gls
Monaco
Paris Josua Brunner 4 gls

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Head to Head: Le Mans vs Monaco

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Le Mans — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
08 Nov H Monaco D 1 - 1
31 Oct A Estac Troyes L 2 - 0
25 Oct A Auxerre D 1 - 1
16 Oct H Toulouse L 0 - 3
10 Oct A Paris Saint Germain L 3 - 1

Monaco — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
08 Nov A Le Mans D 1 - 1
05 Nov H FC Nordsjaelland W 2 - 0
01 Nov A Paris FC L 3 - 1
25 Oct H Lille D 1 - 1
22 Oct H SC Freiburg W 3 - 0

Ligue 1 Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Paris Saint Germain
10 7 2 1 +12 23
2
Lille
10 6 3 1 +7 21
3
Paris FC
10 6 2 2 +7 20
4
Marseille
10 6 0 4 +8 18
5
Lyon
10 5 2 3 +6 17
6
Nice
10 5 2 3 +3 17
7
Monaco
10 4 4 2 +2 16
8
Rennes
10 5 1 4 0 16
9
Stade Brestois 29
10 4 3 3 +6 15
10
Lorient
10 4 3 3 +1 15
11
Lens
10 4 1 5 +2 13
12
Toulouse
10 3 4 3 +1 13
13
Strasbourg
10 3 1 6 -4 10
14
Auxerre
10 3 1 6 -11 10
15
Le Mans
10 1 5 4 -7 8
16
Angers
10 2 2 6 -10 8
17
Estac Troyes
10 2 2 6 -10 8
18
Le Havre
10 0 2 8 -13 2

Le Mans

Formation: 3-1-4-2 Coach: P. Videira
98 Kocik
5 Voyer
17 Yohou
26 Bamba
29 Bretelle
22 Calodat
10 Vercruysse
23 Traoré
18 Buadés
25 Guèye
14 Mafouta

Starting XI

# Player Pos
98 N. Kocik G
26 R. Bamba D
17 S. Yohou D
5 H. Voyer D
29 L. Bretelle M
18 L. Buadés M
23 D. Traoré M
10 J. Vercruysse M
22 L. Calodat M
14 L. Mafouta F
25 D. Guèye F

Substitutes

16 Raúl Torrente D
15 N. Boissé D
28 E. Colas F
20 W. Harhouz F
1 E. Hatfout G
76 Y. Larouci D
8 A. Lauray M
9 A. Rabillard F
37 Adnane Kharroubi F

Monaco

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Filipe Luís
1 Hrádecký
20 Nazinho
15 Dier
72 Sané
2 Vanderson
8 Camara
6 Zakaria
7 Detourbet
10 Golovin
28 Coulibaly
11 Abline

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 L. Hrádecký G
2 Vanderson D
72 Sadibou Sané D
15 E. Dier D
20 Flávio Nazinho D
6 D. Zakaria M
8 L. Camara M
28 M. Coulibaly M
10 A. Golovin M
7 M. Detourbet M
11 M. Abline F

Substitutes

9 F. Balogun F
29 Paris Josua Brunner F
19 Pape Cabral M
37 E. Diop M
16 P. Köhn G
13 C. Mawissa Elebi D
18 T. Minamino M
4 J. Teze D
49 I. Touré M

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