Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes Prédiction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 10

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Estac Troyes

Away

Parc des Princes, Paris

Prédiction IA Paris Saint Germain gagnant

80%

14%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes : Sportiko estime que Paris Saint Germain a 80% de chances de s'imposer, Estac Troyes 6% et le match nul 14%. Dernière mise à jour : 7 Nov 2026, 21:57.

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1st Half Over 0.5 75%
Under 4.5 75%

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Match Report

Paris Saint-Germain secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, with the decisive moment arriving in curious fashion. Ilya Zabarnyi, booked for a foul just five minutes earlier, turned from villain to match-winner by heading home the only goal of the game in the 39th minute. That advantage held through half-time and ultimately proved enough for the hosts.

The scoreline, however, masked a surprisingly dominant display from the visitors. Troyes controlled 74% of possession, registered 15 total shots to PSG's eight, and generated an expected goals figure of 1.64 compared to just 0.71 for the Parisians. Despite that statistical superiority, Troyes could not find a way past PSG's defence, with yellow cards for Jérémy Le Douaron and Antoine Mille in the second half adding to their frustrations. Both sides made multiple substitutions after the hour mark, including Ferran Torres and Fabián Ruiz coming on for PSG.

The result moves PSG forward in the Ligue 1 standings. Pre-match, our AI model had flagged a PSG win as the most probable outcome at 80%, a prediction that proved accurate despite the visitors' clear statistical edge throughout.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Ilya Zabarnyi Yellow Card

34' ▮

Ilya Zabarnyi assist: Senny Mayulu

39' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

⇄ 62'

Kandet Diawara ⇄ Hugo Picard

⇄ 62'

Renaud Ripart ⇄ Jérémy Le Douaron

Mika Godts ⇄ João Neves

70' ⇄

Ferran Torres ⇄ Quentin Ndjantou

70' ⇄

⇄ 72'

Merwan Ifnaoui ⇄ Idrissa Soukouna

⇄ 73'

I. Boura ⇄ Yvann Titi

▮ 79'

Jérémy Le Douaron Yellow Card

⇄ 85'

Mouhamed Diop ⇄ Timothé Nkada

▮ 86'

Antoine Mille Yellow Card

Senny Mayulu ⇄ Dro Fernández

86' ⇄

Fabián Ruiz ⇄ Lucas Beraldo

86' ⇄

FT 1–0

Paris Saint Germain

Match Stats

Estac Troyes

74% Ball Possession 26%

1.64 Expected Goals (xG) 0.71

15 Total Shots 8

7 Shots on Goal 3

5 Shots off Goal 3

3 Blocked Shots 2

12 Shots insidebox 5

3 Shots outsidebox 3

6 Corner Kicks 1

1 Offsides 6

6 Fouls 7

1 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

3 Goalkeeper Saves 6

893 Total passes 326

836 Passes accurate 272

7 Free Kicks 6

Paris Saint Germain

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
6 Ilya Zabarnyi D	8.1	90'	1	–	2	95 (89%)	1
33 Warren Zaïre-Emery D	7.8	90'	–	–	1	81 (80%)	2
24 Senny Mayulu M	7.7	86'	–	1	3	40 (36%)	1
8 Fabián Ruiz M	7.6	86'	–	–	1	83 (78%)	2
21 Lucas Hernández D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	93 (86%)	2
51 Willian Pacho D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	108 (105%)	1
17 Vitinha M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	169 (160%)	1
39 Matvey Safonov G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	18 (17%)	–
4 Lucas Beraldo D	7.0	4'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
87 João Neves M	6.8	20'	–	–	–	14 (14%)	–
27 Dro Fernández M	6.8	4'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
14 Désiré Doué F	6.7	90'	–	–	3	73 (65%)	1
47 Quentin Ndjantou F	6.5	20'	–	–	–	9 (9%)	–
22 Mika Godts F	6.3	70'	–	–	1	41 (36%)	2
9 Ferran Torres F	6.0	70'	–	–	4	29 (27%)	1

Estac Troyes

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
40 Hillel Konaté G	7.6	90'	–	–	–	26 (12%)	–
29 Karim Dermane M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	38 (35%)	2
14 I. Boura D	6.9	73'	–	–	1	17 (16%)	–
4 Michel Diaz D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	25 (25%)	–
6 Adrien Monfray D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	39 (35%)	–
17 Antoine Mille M	6.6	90'	–	–	1	33 (27%)	2
8 Mouhamed Diop M	6.5	85'	–	–	–	23 (18%)	2
2 L. Maronnier D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	21 (17%)	4
44 Yvann Titi D	6.4	17'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	1
23 Timothé Nkada F	6.3	5'	–	–	–	1	–
10 Merwan Ifnaoui M	6.3	72'	–	–	1	22 (17%)	1
22 Hugo Picard M	6.2	28'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	–
36 Idrissa Soukouna M	6.2	18'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	–
9 Jérémy Le Douaron F	6.1	28'	–	–	–	2	–
20 Renaud Ripart F	6.1	62'	–	–	4	12 (10%)	–
7 Kandet Diawara M	6.0	62'	–	–	–	16 (13%)	–

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At a glance

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Paris Saint Germain gagnant

Most likely score

Both teams to score

Over 2.5 goals

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Paris Saint Germain

WWWWW

Estac Troyes

LWDLL

Last 3 meetings Paris Saint Germain · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) will host Estac Troyes. PSG currently boasts a strong attacking lineup, led by key players who have consistently contributed to their goal tally, averaging 2.5 goals per match this season. Conversely, Troyes has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. With PSG's high possession rates and pressing style, they are likely to dominate the midfield and create numerous scoring opportunities. Expect PSG to assert their offensive prowess against a Troyes side that needs to improve its defensive organization to stand a chance in this matchup.

Live insights

84' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 78.9%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Paris Saint Germain leads 1-0. Win probability: 93.4%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 6.6%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-0. Paris Saint Germain leads. Win probability: 92.4%. Over 0.5 more goals: 83.3%.

40' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Paris Saint Germain win: 92.7%. BTTS: 33%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

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Players in form

Paris Saint Germain

Ferran Torres 4 gls

A. Hakimi 3 gls

Estac Troyes

No scorer data.

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Head to Head: Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes

2 Paris Saint Germain Wins

1 Draws

0 Estac Troyes Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
07 May 2023	Estac Troyes	1 - 3	Paris Saint Germain
29 Oct 2022	Paris Saint Germain	4 - 3	Estac Troyes
08 May 2022	Paris Saint Germain	2 - 2	Estac Troyes

Voir les 10 confrontations — Premium

Paris Saint Germain — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	H Estac Troyes	W	1 - 0
03 Nov	A Villarreal	W	0 - 6
30 Oct	A Le Havre	W	1 - 5
26 Oct	H Lyon	W	2 - 0
20 Oct	H Barcelona	W	4 - 2

Estac Troyes — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	A Paris Saint Germain	L	1 - 0
31 Oct	H Le Mans	W	2 - 0
25 Oct	A Toulouse	D	0 - 0
17 Oct	H Lens	L	1 - 3
11 Oct	H Marseille	L	0 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	22	10	+12	23
2	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	17	10	+7	20
3	Lille	9	5	3	1	12	6	+6	18
4	Lyon	9	5	2	2	15	7	+8	17
5	Rennes	9	5	1	3	20	19	+1	16
6	Marseille	9	5	0	4	20	13	+7	15
7	Monaco	9	4	3	2	12	10	+2	15
8	Nice	9	4	2	3	13	12	+1	14
9	Lens	9	4	1	4	16	13	+3	13
10	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	15	14	+1	13
11	Stade Brestois 29	9	3	3	3	16	12	+4	12
12	Lorient	9	3	3	3	7	8	-1	12
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	18	22	-4	10
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	13	24	-11	10
15	Angers	9	2	2	5	9	17	-8	8
16	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	7	17	-10	8
17	Le Mans	9	1	4	4	11	18	-7	7
18	Le Havre	9	0	2	7	9	20	-11	2