Le Havre vs Auxerre Prédiction

Ligue 1 Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 7
FT
Post on X
Stade Océane, Le Havre
Prédiction IA Le Havre ou match nul
41%
28%
30%
Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Le Havre vs Auxerre : Sportiko estime que Le Havre a 41% de chances de s'imposer, Auxerre 30% et le match nul 28%. Dernière mise à jour : 18 Oct 2026, 17:10.

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  • 1st Half Draw or Away 74%
  • L'équipe extérieure marque 72%
Les membres Premium avaient ces pronostics avant le coup d'envoi. Voir les sélections Premium

Match Report

Auxerre claimed a comfortable 3-1 victory at Le Havre in Ligue 1's seventh matchday, with the visitors taking control before the break. Danny Namaso opened the scoring with a well-taken goal in the 40th minute, and despite a flurry of yellow cards in the early stages — with Akpa, Ahamada, and Ndiaye all booked — Auxerre maintained their composure throughout.

Namaso doubled the advantage just after the hour mark, and a triple substitution from Le Havre on 62 minutes, bringing on Nakamura, Maja, and a replacement for the cautioned Ndiaye, failed to shift the momentum. Rayan Fofana added a third for Auxerre on 66 minutes to effectively seal the points. Le Havre did pull one back through Romain Faivre on 80 minutes, but it proved little more than a consolation.

The underlying numbers told an interesting story, with Le Havre generating an expected goals figure of 2.79 compared to Auxerre's 1.4, suggesting the hosts were wasteful in front of goal. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Le Havre win as the most likely outcome at 41%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 40'
Danny Namaso assist: Kévin Danois
▮ 43'
Clement Akpa Yellow Card
HT 0–1
▮ 50'
Naouirou Ahamada Yellow Card
Rassoul Ndiaye Yellow Card
54' ▮
⚽ 0–2 61'
Danny Namaso assist: Romain Faivre
Sota Nakamura ⇄ Rayan Fofana
62' ⇄
Josh Maja
62' ⇄
Rassoul Ndiaye ⇄ Enzo Koffi
62' ⇄
Rayan Fofana
66' ⚽ 1–2
⚽ 1–3 80'
Romain Faivre assist: Danny Namaso
⇄ 82'
Naouirou Ahamada ⇄ Arthur Piedfort
D. Ouziad ⇄ Kaito Mizuta
84' ⇄
Rassoul Ndiaye ⇄ G. Zohouri
85' ⇄
⇄ 89'
Lamine Sy ⇄ Elikya Legros
FT 1–3
Le Havre

Match Stats

Auxerre
52% Ball Possession 48%
1.4 Expected Goals (xG) 2.79
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Goal 6
4 Shots off Goal 5
4 Blocked Shots 2
13 Shots insidebox 11
2 Shots outsidebox 2
7 Corner Kicks 4
2 Offsides 2
16 Fouls 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 0
3 Goalkeeper Saves 7
418 Total passes 409
341 Passes accurate 350
22 Free Kicks 16
Le Havre
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
38 Rayan Fofana F 7.0 28' 1 – 3 4 (3%) 1
6 Junior Mwanga D 6.7 90' – – – 56 (49%) 5
27 Enzo Koffi F 6.6 28' – – – 21 (17%) 2
30 Sota Nakamura F 6.5 62' – – 1 14 (12%) 2
5 Ahmed Touba D 6.4 90' – – – 60 (53%) –
25 Mbwana Ally Samatta F 6.4 90' – – 4 25 (19%) 1
26 Simon Ebonog M 6.3 90' – – 1 40 (36%) 1
20 D. Ouziad D 6.3 84' – – – 33 (26%) 3
7 Amir Richardson M 6.2 90' – – 1 33 (23%) 2
9 Josh Maja F 6.2 62' – – 3 12 (7%) –
14 Rassoul Ndiaye M 5.9 85' – – 1 39 (33%) 1
17 Kaito Mizuta M 5.8 6' – – – 6 (5%) –
24 G. Zohouri M 5.8 5' – – – 9 (8%) 1
93 G. Gallon G 5.7 90' – – – 32 (27%) –
Seamus Maughan 5.3 62' – – – 28 (19%) 4
Auxerre
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
10 Danny Namaso M 9.3 90' 2 1 4 29 (25%) 2
21 Romain Faivre M 9.0 90' 1 1 4 37 (31%) 3
1 Paul Nardi G 8.7 90' – – – 28 (21%) –
5 Kévin Danois M 7.7 90' – 1 – 64 (60%) 1
4 Axel Tuanzebe D 7.3 90' – – 2 33 (31%) 1
92 Clement Akpa D 6.7 90' – – – 59 (51%) –
15 Christ Makosso D 6.6 90' – – – 37 (27%) 2
22 Fredrik Oppegård M 6.5 90' – – – 35 (31%) 2
35 Elikya Legros D 6.5 1' – – – 3 (3%) 1
27 Lamine Sy M 6.4 89' – – – 29 (24%) 3
9 Cameron Archer F 6.4 90' – – 3 19 (16%) 1
46 Arthur Piedfort M 6.3 8' – – – 2 (1%) –
8 Naouirou Ahamada M 6.2 82' – – – 30 (25%) 1
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Confidence Low (41%)

At a glance

Notre approche
Le Havre ou match nul
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Le Havre
LLLLL
Auxerre
LLDWL
Last 3 meetings Le Havre · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Le Havre will face Auxerre. Le Havre has shown a solid performance at home, with a record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches. Conversely, Auxerre has struggled on the road, with only 1 win in their last five away fixtures. Key players to watch include Le Havre's top scorer, who will be crucial in breaking down Auxerre's defense. Overall, Le Havre appears to be in better form and may leverage their home advantage to secure a vital three points.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
41%
45%
Draw
28%
45%
Away
30%
10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Le Havre
J. Maja 4 gls
Auxerre
C. Archer 6 gls

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Head to Head: Le Havre vs Auxerre

2 Le Havre Wins
1 Draws
0 Auxerre Wins
Date Home Score Away
05 Apr 2026 Le Havre 1 - 1 Auxerre
26 Oct 2025 Auxerre 0 - 1 Le Havre
04 May 2025 Auxerre 1 - 2 Le Havre
Voir les 4 confrontations — Premium

Le Havre — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
30 Oct H Paris Saint Germain L 1 - 5
25 Oct A Marseille L 4 - 3
18 Oct H Auxerre L 1 - 3
10 Oct A Lille L 1 - 0
19 Sep A Toulouse L 3 - 2

Auxerre — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
07 Nov H Paris FC L 0 - 1
01 Nov A Strasbourg L 5 - 1
25 Oct H Le Mans D 1 - 1
18 Oct A Le Havre W 1 - 3
11 Oct A Rennes L 4 - 1

Ligue 1 Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Paris Saint Germain
10 7 2 1 +12 23
2
Paris FC
10 6 2 2 +7 20
3
Lille
9 5 3 1 +6 18
4
Lyon
9 5 2 2 +8 17
5
Rennes
9 5 1 3 +1 16
6
Marseille
9 5 0 4 +7 15
7
Monaco
9 4 3 2 +2 15
8
Nice
9 4 2 3 +1 14
9
Lens
9 4 1 4 +3 13
10
Toulouse
10 3 4 3 +1 13
11
Stade Brestois 29
9 3 3 3 +4 12
12
Lorient
9 3 3 3 -1 12
13
Strasbourg
10 3 1 6 -4 10
14
Auxerre
10 3 1 6 -11 10
15
Angers
9 2 2 5 -8 8
16
Estac Troyes
10 2 2 6 -10 8
17
Le Mans
9 1 4 4 -7 7
18
Le Havre
9 0 2 7 -11 2

Auxerre

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: W. Still
1 Nardi
92 Akpa
4 Tuanzebe
15 Makosso
22 Oppegård
5 Danois
8 Ahamada
27 Sy
10 Namaso
21 Faivre
9 Archer

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 P. Nardi G
15 C. Makosso D
4 A. Tuanzebe D
92 C. Akpa D
27 L. Sy M
8 N. Ahamada M
5 K. Danois M
22 F. Oppegård M
21 R. Faivre M
10 D. Namaso M
9 C. Archer F

Substitutes

77 Aristide Zossou M
46 A. Piedfort M
35 E. Legros D
17 P. Ekwah M
34 L. Dioubate M
23 M. Diop G
20 S. Diomandé D
44 Mamoudou Cissokho F
47 Youssef Khoudda F

Le Havre

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: D. Digard
93 Gallon
97 Ndiaye
5 Touba
6 Mwanga
20 Ouziad
7 Richardson
26 Ebonog
14 Ndiaye
25 Samatta
9 Maja
30 Nakamura

Starting XI

# Player Pos
93 G. Gallon G
20 D. Ouziad D
6 J. Mwanga D
5 A. Touba D
97 M. Ndiaye D
14 R. Ndiaye M
26 S. Ebonog M
7 A. Richardson M
30 S. Nakamura F
9 J. Maja F
25 M. Samatta F

Substitutes

24 G. Zohouri M
27 E. Koffi Vinette F
23 V. Sasso D
78 D. Mosengo M
17 K. Mizuta M
38 R. Fofana F
44 I. Bouneb M
16 A. Bodart G
33 Hakim Dongopandji F

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