Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln Prédiction

Bundesliga Bundesliga · Regular Season - 8
FT
Post on X
Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Prédiction IA 1. FC Köln ou match nul
35%
28%
37%
Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln : Sportiko estime que Union Berlin a 35% de chances de s'imposer, 1. FC Köln 37% et le match nul 28%. Dernière mise à jour : 1 Nov 2026, 16:22.

Pronostics Premium

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  • L'équipe à domicile marque 76%
  • 1st Half Draw or Away 75%
Les membres Premium avaient ces pronostics avant le coup d'envoi. Voir les sélections Premium

Match Report

Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln played out a 1–1 draw in Bundesliga Matchday 8, with the visitors dominating possession but ultimately unable to hold onto a hard-earned point. Janik Haberer gave Köln the lead in the 10th minute, and they carried that advantage into half-time despite Union enjoying little of the ball — the hosts managed just 37% possession across the match.

The second half turned feisty, with a flurry of yellow cards on both sides shortly after the restart. Union pressed for an equaliser and found it in the 79th minute through M. El Mala, cancelling out Haberer's opener and denying Köln what would have been a valuable away win. Köln's xG of 1.05 edged Union's 0.91, reflecting their greater threat across 12 total shots compared to the hosts' five.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Köln victory as the most likely outcome at 37%, a call that looked well-founded for much of the contest before Union's late leveller changed the complexion of the result.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Janik Haberer assist: Tim Skarke
10' ⚽ 1–0
Zeno Van Den Bosch Yellow Card
37' ▮
▮ 45+1'
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Yellow Card
HT 1–0
▮ 53'
Paul Okon-Engstler Yellow Card
Kastriot Imeri Yellow Card
54' ▮
⇄ 61'
Sebastian Sebulonsen ⇄ Alessio Castro-Montes
⇄ 61'
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson ⇄ Mikey Moore
Kastriot Imeri ⇄ Aljoscha Kemlein
61' ⇄
Tim Skarke ⇄ Oliver Burke
61' ⇄
▮ 69'
Linton Maina Yellow Card
⇄ 72'
Linton Maina ⇄ M. El Mala
Livan Burcu ⇄ Woo-Yeong Jeong
74' ⇄
Janik Haberer ⇄ Christopher Trimmel
74' ⇄
Aljoscha Kemlein Yellow Card
76' ▮
Derrick Köhn Yellow Card
77' ▮
⚽ 1–1 79'
M. El Mala assist: Alessio Castro-Montes
Michel Aebischer ⇄ Emmanuel Latte Lath
84' ⇄
FT 1–1
Union Berlin

Match Stats

1. FC Köln
37% Ball Possession 63%
0.91 Expected Goals (xG) 1.05
5 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Goal 2
3 Shots off Goal 5
0 Blocked Shots 5
2 Shots insidebox 9
3 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Corner Kicks 5
1 Offsides 2
11 Fouls 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 0
1 Goalkeeper Saves 1
382 Total passes 634
293 Passes accurate 565
9 Free Kicks 10
Union Berlin
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
19 Janik Haberer M 7.5 74' 1 – 2 29 (20%) 2
8 Rani Khedira D 7.3 90' – – – 30 (26%) 2
5 Marvin Friedrich D 6.9 90' – – – 32 (25%) 5
6 Aljoscha Kemlein M 6.8 29' – – – 15 (11%) 2
21 Tim Skarke F 6.7 61' – 1 – 10 (8%) –
28 Christopher Trimmel D 6.6 16' – – – 7 (5%) –
29 Emmanuel Latte Lath F 6.5 6' – – – 1 (1%) –
9 Livan Burcu F 6.5 74' – – 1 31 (23%) –
20 Michel Aebischer M 6.4 84' – – 1 36 (30%) 2
7 Oliver Burke F 6.4 29' – – – 3 (1%) –
1 Frederik Rønnow G 6.3 90' – – – 38 (26%) –
13 András Schäfer M 6.3 90' – – – 46 (39%) 2
17 Derrick Köhn M 6.3 90' – – – 42 (33%) 2
4 Zeno Van Den Bosch D 6.2 90' – – – 30 (21%) 3
11 Woo-Yeong Jeong M 6.1 16' – – – 6 (4%) 1
30 Kastriot Imeri M 6.0 61' – – 1 26 (20%) –
1. FC Köln
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
19 M. El Mala F 8.0 18' 1 – 1 – –
17 Alessio Castro-Montes M 7.4 29' – 1 2 18 (16%) 1
5 Tom Krauß M 7.2 90' – – – 99 (94%) 3
3 Borna Sosa D 7.2 90' – – – 81 (69%) –
2 Joel Schmied D 7.1 90' – – 2 79 (76%) 1
30 Marius Bülter F 6.8 90' – – 2 24 (18%) –
47 Mikey Moore F 6.7 29' – – 2 14 (9%) –
1 Marvin Schwäbe G 6.6 90' – – – 40 (37%) –
22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 6.6 90' – – – 91 (89%) –
37 Linton Maina M 6.5 72' – – – 32 (27%) –
23 Paul Okon-Engstler M 6.4 90' – – – 77 (67%) –
28 Sebastian Sebulonsen D 6.4 61' – – 1 38 (32%) –
10 Said El Mala F 6.3 90' – – 3 17 (13%) –
8 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson M 6.1 61' – – – 27 (20%) –
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Confidence Low (37%)

At a glance

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1. FC Köln ou match nul
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Union Berlin
DLDDW
1. FC Köln
DDWDL
Last 3 meetings Union Berlin · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Union Berlin faces 1. FC Köln in a Bundesliga match that promises to be competitive. Union has been solid at home, with a strong defensive record, allowing an average of just 1.2 goals per game this season. Conversely, Köln has struggled to find consistency, particularly in away fixtures, where they have averaged 0.8 goals per game. The matchup will likely hinge on Union's ability to capitalize on Köln’s defensive vulnerabilities while maintaining their disciplined defensive structure. Key players to watch include Union's leading scorer and Köln's creative playmaker, whose performances could influence the outcome significantly.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
35%
10%
Draw
28%
45%
Away
37%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Head to Head: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln

1 Union Berlin Wins
1 Draws
1 1. FC Köln Wins
Date Home Score Away
27 Oct 2026 1. FC Köln 5 - 0 Union Berlin
02 May 2026 Union Berlin 2 - 2 1. FC Köln
20 Dec 2025 1. FC Köln 0 - 1 Union Berlin
Voir les 10 confrontations — Premium

Union Berlin — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
01 Nov H 1. FC Köln D 1 - 1
27 Oct A 1. FC Köln L 5 - 0
24 Oct A FC Augsburg D 1 - 1
17 Oct H Borussia Dortmund D 0 - 0
10 Oct H SV Elversberg W 1 - 0

1. FC Köln — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
08 Nov H Bayer Leverkusen D 0 - 0
01 Nov A Union Berlin D 1 - 1
27 Oct H Union Berlin W 5 - 0
24 Oct H FC Schalke 04 D 0 - 0
16 Oct A Eintracht Frankfurt L 1 - 0

Bundesliga Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Bayern München
9 6 3 0 +20 21
2
Borussia Dortmund
9 6 3 0 +9 21
3
RB Leipzig
9 6 0 3 +14 18
4
SC Freiburg
8 5 1 2 +8 16
5
Werder Bremen
9 4 3 2 +2 15
6
Bayer Leverkusen
8 4 1 3 +2 13
7
SV Elversberg
9 4 1 4 -1 13
8
VfB Stuttgart
9 4 0 5 0 12
9
Eintracht Frankfurt
9 3 3 3 -5 12
10
Hamburger SV
9 4 0 5 -10 12
11
FSV Mainz 05
9 3 1 5 -1 10
12
SC Paderborn 07
9 2 4 3 -3 10
13
FC Augsburg
9 2 3 4 0 9
14
1899 Hoffenheim
8 3 0 5 -2 9
15
1. FC Köln
8 2 3 3 -3 9
16
Union Berlin
8 1 4 3 -12 7
17
FC Schalke 04
8 1 3 4 -5 6
18
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9 1 1 7 -13 4

Union Berlin

Formation: 3-4-1-2 Coach: M. Lustrinelli
1 Rønnow
8 Khedira
5 Friedrich
4 Bosch
17 Köhn
20 Aebischer
13 Schäfer
19 Haberer
30 Imeri
9 Burcu
21 Skarke

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 F. Rønnow G
4 Z. Van Den Bosch D
5 M. Friedrich D
8 R. Khedira D
19 J. Haberer M
13 A. Schäfer M
20 M. Aebischer M
17 D. Köhn M
30 K. Imeri M
21 T. Skarke F
9 Livan Burcu F

Substitutes

7 O. Burke F
11 Jeong Woo-Yeong M
32 M. Gray F
6 A. Kemlein M
29 E. Latte Lath F
14 L. Querfeld D
31 M. Raab G
15 T. Rothe D
28 C. Trimmel D

1. FC Köln

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Arturo Ruiz
1 Schwäbe
3 Sosa
22 Simpson-Pusey
2 Schmied
28 Sebulonsen
8 Jóhannesson
5 Krauß
23 Okon-Engstler
37 Maina
10 Mala
30 Bülter

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 M. Schwäbe G
28 S. Sebulonsen D
2 J. Schmied D
22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D
3 B. Sosa D
37 L. Maina M
23 Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler M
5 T. Krauß M
8 Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson M
30 M. Bülter F
10 S. El Mala F

Substitutes

20 R. Zieler G
17 A. Castro-Montes M
11 Reigan Heskey F
24 L. Lochoshvili D
14 G. Mensah D
47 M. Moore F
29 J. Thielmann M
7 L. Waldschmidt F
19 M. El Mala F

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