Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prédiction

La Liga · Regular Season - 5

Post on X

Rayo Vallecano

Away

Prédiction IA Real Madrid gagnant

81%

13%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano : Sportiko estime que Real Madrid a 81% de chances de s'imposer, Rayo Vallecano 6% et le match nul 13%. Dernière mise à jour : 12 Sep 2026, 21:00.

Pronostics Premium

Premium

Home/Draw & Over 1.5 72%
2nd Half Over 0.5 74%

Les membres Premium avaient ces pronostics avant le coup d'envoi. Voir les sélections Premium

Match Report

Real Madrid made light work of Rayo Vallecano at the Bernabéu, racing into a commanding 3–0 lead before the break. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 14th minute, and Álvaro Carreras doubled the advantage just three minutes later. Jude Bellingham added a third on the stroke of half-time to put the contest beyond doubt. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Real Madrid win at 81%, and the first half alone largely vindicated that assessment.

Rayo offered a brief response early in the second half when Sergio Camello pulled one back in the 51st minute, but Madrid's superiority was never seriously threatened. Carlo Ancelotti's side controlled possession at 56% and generated 24 total shots across the 90 minutes, reflecting their dominance throughout.

Mbappé wrapped up the scoring in stoppage time to complete a comfortable afternoon for the hosts and secure his brace. The result moves Real Madrid further along in their La Liga campaign, with Rayo left to reflect on a difficult afternoon despite their reasonable 18 total attempts on the day.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Kylian Mbappé Penalty

14' ⚽ 1–0

Álvaro Carreras assist: Kylian Mbappé

17' ⚽ 2–0

Jude Bellingham assist: Vinícius Júnior

35' ⚽ 3–0

Federico Valverde ⇄ Eduardo Camavinga

45' ⇄

HT 3–0

⚽ 3–1 51'

Sergio Camello

⇄ 67'

Pedro Díaz ⇄ Rayane Belaid

⇄ 67'

Gnangoro Bouaré ⇄ Óscar Valentín

Bernardo Silva ⇄ Aurélien Tchouaméni

69' ⇄

Yan Diomande ⇄ Arda Güler

72' ⇄

⇄ 75'

Sergio Camello ⇄ Alemão

⇄ 75'

Unai López ⇄ Mujaid Sadick

▮ 76'

Pathé Ismaël Ciss Yellow Card

⇄ 86'

Adrià Pedrosa ⇄ Iván Balliu

Vinícius Júnior ⇄ Marc Cucurella

89' ⇄

Kylian Mbappé assist: Arda Güler

90+1' ⚽ 4–1

FT 4–1

Real Madrid

Match Stats

Rayo Vallecano

56% Ball Possession 44%

24 Total Shots 18

11 Shots on Goal 7

8 Shots off Goal 6

5 Blocked Shots 5

16 Shots insidebox 8

8 Shots outsidebox 10

11 Corner Kicks 5

1 Offsides 0

9 Fouls 13

0 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 0

6 Goalkeeper Saves 7

542 Total passes 415

492 Passes accurate 358

12 Free Kicks 8

Real Madrid

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Kylian Mbappé F	9.0	90'	2	1	5	31 (29%)	2
1 Thibaut Courtois G	8.4	90'	–	–	–	37 (31%)	–
5 Jude Bellingham M	8.2	90'	1	–	4	38 (31%)	2
18 Álvaro Carreras D	7.9	90'	1	–	1	62 (54%)	3
7 Vinícius Júnior M	7.7	89'	–	1	4	38 (34%)	3
15 Arda Güler M	7.7	18'	–	1	1	18 (16%)	–
22 Antonio Rüdiger D	7.1	90'	–	–	1	80 (74%)	–
8 Federico Valverde M	7.1	46'	–	–	2	36 (35%)	1
25 Yan Diomande M	7.0	72'	–	–	1	26 (24%)	3
20 Bernardo Silva M	6.8	69'	–	–	1	59 (54%)	1
16 Ibrahima Konaté D	6.7	90'	–	–	2	41 (39%)	1
6 Eduardo Camavinga M	6.7	44'	–	–	–	28 (25%)	1
24 D. Dumfries D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	28 (27%)	3
14 Aurélien Tchouaméni M	6.4	21'	–	–	1	19 (18%)	–
17 Marc Cucurella D	6.3	1'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–

Rayo Vallecano

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Sergio Camello F	8.2	75'	1	–	3	20 (16%)	2
4 Pedro Díaz M	6.7	67'	–	–	5	20 (20%)	1
25 Emil Audero G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	27 (19%)	–
17 Adrià Pedrosa D	6.5	86'	–	–	–	28 (25%)	2
36 Gnangoro Bouaré M	6.5	67'	–	–	–	31 (28%)	3
8 Unai López M	6.4	75'	–	–	1	59 (52%)	1
9 Alemão F	6.3	15'	–	–	3	4 (3%)	–
37 Rayane Belaid F	6.3	23'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
23 Óscar Valentín M	6.2	23'	–	–	–	18 (17%)	–
14 Georgiy Tsitaishvili M	6.0	90'	–	–	3	12 (11%)	1
6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss D	5.9	90'	–	–	–	56 (52%)	1
24 Florian Lejeune D	5.9	90'	–	–	2	56 (44%)	2
15 Mujaid Sadick D	5.8	15'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	–
2 Andrei Rațiu D	5.7	90'	–	–	–	42 (36%)	–
18 Álvaro García M	5.6	90'	–	–	1	20 (14%)	2
20 Iván Balliu D	5.6	4'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	–

Premium

Accéder à l'analyse complète de l'IA pour Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Tous les 70+ marchés de probabilité
Rapport de match — Analyse approfondie IA
Avantage Analytique — modèle vs marché
Types de sélections que vous choisissez

Passer à Premium

Confidence High (81%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Real Madrid gagnant

Most likely score

2:0 · 13.4%

Both teams to score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Real Madrid

LWWWL

Rayo Vallecano

DWLWL

Last 3 meetings Real Madrid · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In this La Liga clash, Real Madrid faces Rayo Vallecano. Historically, Real Madrid has a significant edge, boasting a strong record against Rayo, including dominant performances in recent seasons. Key players like Karim Benzema and Vinícius Júnior will likely exploit Rayo's defensive vulnerabilities, as they have combined for a high number of goals and assists. Rayo Vallecano will need to tighten their defense to avoid being overwhelmed, especially given their tendency to concede goals against top-tier teams. Overall, Madrid's attacking prowess could prove decisive in this matchup.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

81%

45%

Draw

13%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Rayo Vallecano goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	3	1
1	11	10	3	1
2	13	10	3	1
3	10	7	3	1
4	5	4	1
5	2	2	1

↑ Real Madrid goals · most likely 2–0 (13.4%)

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Players in form

Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé 7 gls

J. Bellingham 3 gls

Rayo Vallecano

Sergio Camello 7 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Pourquoi cette sélection ? · Premium Analyse approfondie IA · Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.

Unlock all models

Match Result

Home Win

81%

Draw

13%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Match Result

Home Win

81%

Draw

13%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Winner

88% Home (No Draw) 12% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

46% Home Win by 2+ 3% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

69% Home Scores More 21% Equal Goals 10% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

25%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

Premium

1-3 Goals

Premium

3-5 Goals

Premium

2-3 Goals

Premium

1-2 Goals

Premium

4-6 Goals

Premium

Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

Premium

BTTS & Over 3.5

Premium

BTTS & Under 3.5

Premium

Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Draw & Over 2.5

Premium

Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

Premium

Home/Away & Over 2.5

Premium

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

Premium

Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.7%	2.8%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%
1	11.0%	9.9%	3.2%	0.8%	0.1%
2	13.4%	9.6%	3.5%	0.8%	0.2%
3	9.8%	7.1%	2.5%	0.6%	0.1%
4	5.4%	3.9%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

Premium

1st Half Draw

Premium

1st Half Away Win

Premium

1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

Premium

1st Half Home or Away

Premium

1st Half Draw or Away

Premium

1h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

54%

1.5

46%

81%

2.5

19%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

Premium

1h Exact Goals

23%

31%

26%

13%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

Premium

2nd Half Draw

Premium

2nd Half Away Win

Premium

2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

Premium

2nd Half Home or Away

Premium

2nd Half Draw or Away

Premium

2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

Premium

2h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Real Madrid	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid	52.6%	3.5%	0.8%
Draw	16.8%	12.8%	4.3%
Rayo Vallecano	1.7%	2.4%	5.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

36%

1.5

64%

2.5

36%

84%

3.5

16%

Home Exact Goals

11%

25%

28%

20%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

49%

35%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

Premium

Home +1 Win

Premium

Away +2 Win

Premium

Home -1 Win

Premium

Away +1 Win

Premium

Home -2 Win

Premium

Home -1 Draw

Premium

Home -2 Draw

Premium

Away -1 Draw

Premium

Away -1 Win

Premium

Away -2 Draw

Premium

Away -2 Win

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Head to Head: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

2 Real Madrid Wins

1 Draws

0 Rayo Vallecano Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Feb 2026	Real Madrid	2 - 1	Rayo Vallecano
09 Nov 2025	Rayo Vallecano	0 - 0	Real Madrid
09 Mar 2025	Real Madrid	2 - 1	Rayo Vallecano

Voir les 10 confrontations — Premium

Real Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Atletico Madrid	L	2 - 1
15 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
12 Sep	H Rayo Vallecano	W	4 - 1
08 Sep	H Inter	W	2 - 1
04 Sep	A Real Betis	L	1 - 0

Rayo Vallecano — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Osasuna	D	1 - 1
15 Sep	H Espanyol	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 1
05 Sep	H Racing Santander	W	3 - 2
31 Aug	A Barcelona	L	5 - 2

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Real Madrid

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: José Mourinho

1 Courtois

18 Fernández

22 Rüdiger

16 Konaté

24 Dumfries

20 Silva

8 Valverde

7 Júnior

5 Bellingham

25 Diomande

10 Mbappé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	T. Courtois	G
24	D. Dumfries	D
16	I. Konaté	D
22	A. Rüdiger	D
18	Álvaro Fernández	D
8	F. Valverde	M
20	Bernardo Silva	M
25	Y. Diomande	M
5	J. Bellingham	M
7	Vinícius Júnior	M
10	Kylian Mbappé	F

Substitutes

2	Raúl Asencio	D
12	T. Alexander-Arnold	D
6	E. Camavinga	M
17	Marc Cucurella	D
21	Brahim Díaz	M
9	Endrick	F
19	Carlos Espí	F
15	A. Güler	M
4	D. Huijsen	D
13	A. Lunin	G
27	Thiago Pitarch	M
14	A. Tchouaméni	M

Rayo Vallecano

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Beñat San José

25 Audero

17 Pedrosa

6 Ciss

24 Lejeune

2 Rațiu

8 López

36 Bouare

18 García

4 Díaz

14 Tsitaishvili

10 Camello

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
25	E. Audero	G
2	A. Rațiu	D
24	F. Lejeune	D
6	P. Ciss	D
17	Adrià Pedrosa	D
36	G. Bouare	M
8	Unai López	M
14	G. Tsitaishvili	M
4	Pedro Díaz	M
18	Álvaro García	M
10	Sergio Camello	F

Substitutes

20	I. Balliu	D
23	Óscar Valentín	M
15	Mujaid Sadick	D
30	Adrián Molina	G
3	M. Kumbulla	D
22	Pelayo Fernández	D
26	Marco de las Sías	D
1	Dani Cárdenas	G
37	Rayane Belid	F
28	Samu Becerra	M
9	Alemão	F
31	M. Roman	M