Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prédiction

Premier League · Regular Season - 16

19 Dec 2026, 15:00

Post on X

Aston Villa

Away

Stamford Bridge, London

Prédiction IA Aston Villa ou match nul

22%

31%

47%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Chelsea vs Aston Villa : Sportiko estime que Chelsea a 22% de chances de s'imposer, Aston Villa 47% et le match nul 31%. Dernière mise à jour : 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

1:1 · 14.3%

Both teams to score

44%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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Chelsea

LDWLW

Aston Villa

WWLWD

Last 3 meetings Chelsea · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

Chelsea hosts Aston Villa in a Premier League clash on December 19, 2026. Chelsea has shown a solid home record, averaging 2.1 goals per match this season, while their defense has conceded only 1.0 goals per game. Aston Villa, on the other hand, has been inconsistent away, with a goal differential of -5 in their last five matches on the road. Key players to watch include Chelsea's attacking duo, who have combined for 15 goals this season, and Villa's talisman who has been their leading scorer. This match could hinge on Chelsea's ability to break down Villa's defense, which has struggled against top-tier opposition.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

22%

45%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

47%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Aston Villa goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13	13	10	5	2
1	8	14	9	4	1
2	4	5	4	2	1
3	1	2	1
4
5

↑ Chelsea goals · most likely 1–1 (14.3%)

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Players in form

Chelsea

João Pedro 3 gls

M. Rogers 3 gls

C. Palmer 2 gls

Aston Villa

No scorer data.

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

47%

Draw

31%

Home Win

22%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

47%

Draw

31%

Home Win

22%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

69% Away (No Draw) 31% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Away Win by 2+ 8% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

47% Away Scores More 31% Equal Goals 22% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

21%

29%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.5%	13.3%	10.2%	4.7%	1.6%
1	7.6%	14.3%	8.7%	4.0%	1.4%
2	3.9%	5.4%	3.7%	1.7%	0.6%
3	1.1%	1.5%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

74%

1.5

26%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

39%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Chelsea	Draw	Aston Villa
Chelsea	10.6%	3.3%	1.5%
Draw	10.5%	21.1%	17.2%
Aston Villa	1.4%	4.6%	29.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

43%

36%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Chelsea vs Aston Villa

1 Chelsea Wins

0 Draws

2 Aston Villa Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
04 Mar 2026	Aston Villa	1 - 4	Chelsea
27 Dec 2025	Chelsea	1 - 2	Aston Villa
22 Feb 2025	Aston Villa	2 - 1	Chelsea

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Chelsea — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Brentford	L	3 - 0
12 Sep	H Hull City	D	2 - 2
09 Sep	H Leeds	W	6 - 3
06 Sep	A Arsenal	L	2 - 1
30 Aug	H Brighton	W	4 - 3

Aston Villa — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Tottenham	W	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Coventry	W	1 - 3
12 Sep	H Nottingham Forest	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Club Brugge KV	W	2 - 3
05 Sep	A Hull City	D	0 - 0

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.