Pyunik Yerevan vs Marsaxlokk Prédiction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying Round

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Pyunik Yerevan

Home

1 : 0

HT 0 - 0

Match aller 3-0 · Cumulé 4-0

Marsaxlokk

Away

Prédiction IA Pyunik Yerevan pour gagner ou match nul

71%

20%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Pyunik Yerevan vs Marsaxlokk : Sportiko estime que Pyunik Yerevan a 71% de chances de s'imposer, Marsaxlokk 9% et le match nul 20%. Dernière mise à jour : 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5 73%
1st Half Over 0.5 72%
Home 2H Over 0.5 71%

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Match Report

Pyunik Yerevan edged past Marsaxlokk 1–0 in the UEFA Europa Conference League first qualifying round, securing a hard-fought home victory in a match that was far from straightforward. The game was goalless at half-time, with the decisive moment not arriving until the 80th minute when Pyunik converted a penalty to break the deadlock.

The contest was shaped significantly by a red card shown to one of the players as early as the 10th minute, which forced an early substitution just three minutes later and altered the dynamics of the match. Both sides made extensive changes throughout the second half, with a combined total of multiple substitutions reflecting the tactical adjustments each manager sought to make. Yellow cards were distributed across both halves, underlining the competitive and at times fractious nature of the tie.

Pyunik's penalty proved to be the only goal of the match, enough to give the Armenian side a crucial first-leg advantage. The result aligned with pre-match expectations, with our AI model having rated a Pyunik win as the most likely outcome at 71%.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 8'

Yellow Card

▮ 10'

Red Card

⇄ 13'

Yellow Card

21' ▮

HT 0–0

46' ⇄

⇄ 53'

▮ 59'

Yellow Card

60' ⇄

▮ 80'

Yellow Card

Penalty

80' ⚽ 1–0

82' ⇄

Yellow Card

85' ▮

⇄ 86'

FT 1–0

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Confidence High (71%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Pyunik Yerevan pour gagner ou match nul

Most likely score

2:0 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

45%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

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Pyunik Yerevan

DWWWW

Marsaxlokk

LWDWW

Last 1 meetings Pyunik Yerevan · 1W 0D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League match, Pyunik Yerevan will face Marsaxlokk. Pyunik's recent form shows a strong home performance, with a high possession rate averaging 60% in their last five matches, which has contributed to their solid defense, conceding only 1 goal per game. Conversely, Marsaxlokk has struggled on the road, averaging 1.5 goals conceded per match in their last five away fixtures. The match will likely hinge on Pyunik's ability to maintain possession and capitalize on Marsaxlokk's defensive vulnerabilities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Marsaxlokk goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	3	1
1	11	9	3	1
2	14	9	3	1
3	10	7	2	1
4	6	4	1
5	3	2	1

↑ Pyunik Yerevan goals · most likely 2–0 (14.0%)

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Match Result

Home Win

71%

Draw

20%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

54%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

71%

Draw

20%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

89% Home (No Draw) 11% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

48% Home Win by 2+ 2% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

71% Home Scores More 20% Equal Goals 9% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

54%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

25%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.7%	2.7%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%
1	11.5%	9.5%	2.8%	0.6%	0.1%
2	14.1%	9.4%	3.2%	0.7%	0.1%
3	10.5%	7.0%	2.4%	0.5%	0.1%
4	5.9%	3.9%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

51%

1.5

49%

78%

2.5

22%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

30%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Pyunik Yerevan	Draw	Marsaxlokk
Pyunik Yerevan	48.9%	2.7%	0.6%
Draw	21.7%	12.5%	3.8%
Marsaxlokk	2.4%	2.7%	4.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

35%

1.5

65%

63%

2.5

37%

83%

3.5

17%

Home Exact Goals

11%

25%

27%

20%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

97%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

51%

34%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

69%

0.5

31%

95%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Pyunik Yerevan vs Marsaxlokk

1 Pyunik Yerevan Wins

0 Draws

0 Marsaxlokk Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
09 Jul 2026	Marsaxlokk	0 - 3	Pyunik Yerevan

Pyunik Yerevan — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Alashkert	D	3 - 3
13 Sep	H Shirak	W	2 - 0
09 Sep	A Sardarapat	W	2 - 4
31 Aug	H Ararat-Armenia	W	2 - 1
21 Aug	A Ararat	W	0 - 2

Marsaxlokk — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Hamrun Spartans	L	4 - 1
12 Sep	A Floriana	W	2 - 5
05 Sep	H Mosta	D	1 - 1
28 Aug	A Valletta FC	W	1 - 2
21 Aug	H Hibernians	W	1 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.