Yelimay Semey vs Alashkert Prédiction

UEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying Round

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Yelimay Semey

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1 : 1

HT 1 - 1

Match aller 1-1 · Cumulé 2-2

Alashkert

Away

Prédiction IA Yelimay Semey ou match nul

45%

34%

21%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Yelimay Semey vs Alashkert : Sportiko estime que Yelimay Semey a 45% de chances de s'imposer, Alashkert 21% et le match nul 34%. Dernière mise à jour : 20 Jul 2026, 15:42.

Match Report

Yelimay Semey and Alashkert played out a dramatic 2–2 draw in their UEFA Europa Conference League first qualifying round first leg, with the Kazakh side ultimately advancing on penalties after extra time. The opening exchanges were frantic, with goals arriving in the 4th and 11th minutes to set up a 1–1 scoreline at half-time that reflected the closely contested nature of the tie.

The second half and extra time were shaped by a flurry of substitutions and five yellow cards, underlining the physical and tactical intensity of the contest. Alashkert appeared to have snatched a late advantage through a 96th-minute penalty, only for an own goal deep in added time to level matters and force a shootout.

The penalty shootout itself was a nervy affair, with missed efforts on both sides before Yelimay Semey held their nerve to progress. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Yelimay Semey win as the most likely outcome at 45%, a call that proved correct. The Kazakh club now advance to the next qualifying round.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 4'

11' ⚽ 1–1

Yellow Card

37' ▮

HT 1–1

⇄ 46'

Yellow Card

56' ▮

63' ⇄

⇄ 68'

▮ 73'

Yellow Card

⇄ 75'

▮ 80'

Yellow Card

84' ⇄

Yellow Card

86' ▮

Penalty

96' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 103'

105+1' ⇄

⇄ 105+1'

▮ 110'

Yellow Card

110' ⇄

111' ⇄

⚽ 2–2 120+1'

Own Goal

⚽ 2–3 120+1'

Penalty

120+1' ⚽ 3–3

⚽ 3–4 120+2'

Penalty

120+2' ⚽ 4–4

⚽ 4–5 120+3'

Penalty

120+3' ⚽ 5–5

✗ 120+4'

Missed Penalty

120+4' ✗

⚽ 5–6 120+5'

Penalty

120+5' ⚽ 6–6

⚽ 6–7 120+6'

Penalty

120+6' ⚽ 7–7

⚽ 7–8 120+7'

Penalty

Missed Penalty

120+7' ✗

FT 1–1

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Yelimay Semey ou match nul

Most likely score

0:0 · 16.2%

Both teams to score

38%

Over 2.5 goals

30%

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Yelimay Semey

WWLLD

Alashkert

DDWDW

Last 1 meetings Yelimay Semey · 0W 1D 0L

Match summary

Yelimay Semey will face Alashkert in the UEFA Europa Conference League, with both teams seeking a crucial victory to advance in the tournament. Yelimay boasts a solid home record, but this match's neutral venue negates traditional home advantages. Alashkert has shown resilience in away fixtures, having a well-structured defense that can stifle Yelimay's attacking threats. The matchup could hinge on Yelimay's ability to capitalize on set-pieces, as Alashkert's defensive lapses in those situations have been noted in previous encounters. Overall, both teams will need to adapt quickly to the neutral setting to secure a favorable outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Alashkert goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	16	9	4	1
1	16	14	5	1
2	10	8	3	1
3	4	3	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Yelimay Semey goals · most likely 0–0 (16.2%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

34%

Away Win

21%

Both Teams To Score

62% BTTS No 38% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

41%

1.5

59%

70%

2.5

30%

87%

3.5

13%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

34%

Away Win

21%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

68% Home (No Draw) 32% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Home Scores More 34% Equal Goals 21% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

41%

1.5

59%

70%

2.5

30%

87%

3.5

13%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

62% BTTS No 38% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

16%

25%

29%

17%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	16.2%	9.1%	4.0%	1.0%	0.2%
1	15.6%	14.5%	4.7%	1.2%	0.2%
2	10.3%	7.6%	2.8%	0.7%	0.1%
3	4.1%	3.0%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
4	1.2%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

77%

1.5

23%

94%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

43%

35%

17%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

70%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

36%

34%

21%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Yelimay Semey	Draw	Alashkert
Yelimay Semey	26.9%	3.8%	0.9%
Draw	17.8%	24.2%	9.6%
Alashkert	1.5%	3.7%	11.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

67%

1.5

33%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

48%

35%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

94%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Yelimay Semey vs Alashkert

0 Yelimay Semey Wins

1 Draws

0 Alashkert Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
09 Jul 2026	Alashkert	1 - 1	Yelimay Semey

Yelimay Semey — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
17 Sep	A FK Tobol Kostanay	W	0 - 2
12 Sep	H Zhetysu	W	2 - 1
06 Sep	A FC Astana	L	4 - 0
31 Aug	H Kairat Almaty	L	0 - 2
16 Aug	A Kaspiy	D	2 - 2

Alashkert — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Pyunik Yerevan	D	3 - 3
13 Sep	A Sardarapat	D	1 - 1
03 Sep	H Van	W	4 - 0
28 Aug	A FC Urartu	D	1 - 1
21 Aug	H Gandzasar	W	3 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Alashkert

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Vahe Gevorgyan

24 Beglaryan

55 Hakobyan

4 Matyukhin

3 Henrique

5 Terteryan

8 Piloyan

17 Sabobo

10 Farayola

88 Ferreira

11 Touré

7 Nalbandyan

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
24	Arsen Beglaryan	G
5	David Terteryan	D
3	Cézar Henrique	D
4	Yaroslav Matyukhin	D
55	Hakob Hakobyan	D
10	Olawale Farayola	M
17	Joseph Sabobo	M
8	Edgar Piloyan	M
7	Karen Nalbandyan	M
11	Momo Fanyé Touré	F
88	Rafael de Jesus Santana Ferreira	M

Substitutes

14	Domi Massoumou	M
15	Arsen Sadoyan	D
21	Jefferson Granado	M
19	Philip Ejike	F
20	Daouda Togola	M
6	Hussein Muiz Adebayo	M
23	Stepan Gigolyan	D
18	Ifeany David Ndouka	M
99	Ibrahim Sesay	M

Yelimay Semey

Formation: 5-4-1 Coach: Andrey Karpovich

32 Konovalov

17 Bakhtiyarov

15 Mittendorfer

3 Gabriel

26 Tanasijević

20 Ashirbek

27 Berezkin

44 Tyulyubay

23 Ilić

77 Placca

7 Murtazaev

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
32	Ivan Konovalov	G
20	Arsen Ashirbek	M
26	Strahinja Tanasijević	D
3	Higor Gabriel	D
15	Maj Mittendorfer	D
17	Akmal Bakhtiyarov	M
77	Euloge Fessou Placca	F
23	Hrvoje Ilić	M
44	Almas Tyulyubay	M
27	Evgeni Berezkin	M
7	Roman Murtazaev	F

Substitutes

10	Zhan-Ali Payruz	M
11	Ivan Sviridov	F
14	Duván Palacios	M
5	Marin Belančić	D
9	Roger Murillo	F
88	Asan Baygaliev	M
1	Egor Tsuprikov	G
2	Adi Adambaev	M