Netherlands vs Morocco Prédiction

World Cup · Round of 32

Post on X

Morocco

Away

Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe

Prédiction IA Netherlands ou match nul

41%

30%

29%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Netherlands vs Morocco : Sportiko estime que Netherlands a 41% de chances de s'imposer, Morocco 29% et le match nul 30%. Dernière mise à jour : 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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L'équipe à domicile marque 75%
Moins de 3,5 buts 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 74%

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Match Report

Netherlands and Morocco played out a goalless first half despite the Atlas Lions dominating possession and creating the clearer chances, finishing the match with an expected goals figure of 1.40 against the Dutch side's 0.23.

The game came to life shortly after the interval. Cody Gakpo broke the deadlock in the 72nd minute following a double Dutch substitution, but Morocco hit back almost immediately through Issa Diop — who had been booked earlier in the game — levelling in the 90th minute to force extra time. Both sides made further changes as the match stretched on, but neither could find a winner in the additional period, sending the tie to a penalty shootout. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Netherlands victory as the most likely outcome at 41%, a call that ultimately did not hold up.

In the shootout, Koopmeiners and Weghorst converted for the Netherlands while Kluivert missed, whereas Morocco saw Rahimi and Talbi score with El Aynaoui unable to convert. The Atlas Lions advanced on the balance of successful penalties, ending the Dutch side's World Cup campaign.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

HT 0–0

▮ 47'

Issa Diop Yellow Card

N. Aké ⇄ T. Koopmeiners

71' ⇄

B. Brobbey ⇄ W. Weghorst

71' ⇄

C. Gakpo assist: C. Summerville

72' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 75'

Chadi Riad ⇄ Anass Salah-Eddine

⇄ 79'

Brahim Díaz ⇄ Gessime Yassine

⇄ 79'

Ayyoub Bouaddi ⇄ Samir El Mourabet

⇄ 86'

Azzedine Ounahi ⇄ Soufiane Rahimi

M. van de Ven ⇄ J. Hato

86' ⇄

R. Gravenberch ⇄ Q. Timber

86' ⇄

⇄ 87'

Bilal El Khannouss ⇄ Chemsdine Talbi

⚽ 1–1 90+1'

Issa Diop assist: Chemsdine Talbi

F. de Jong ⇄ M. de Roon

110' ⇄

C. Gakpo ⇄ J. Kluivert

113' ⇄

T. Koopmeiners Penalty

120+1' ⚽ 2–1

✗ 120+1'

Neil El Aynaoui Missed Penalty

J. Kluivert Missed Penalty

120+2' ✗

⚽ 2–2 120+2'

Soufiane Rahimi Penalty

W. Weghorst Penalty

120+3' ⚽ 3–2

⚽ 3–3 120+3'

Chemsdine Talbi Penalty

FT 1–1

Netherlands

Match Stats

Morocco

30% Ball Possession 70%

0.23 Expected Goals (xG) 1.40

6 Total Shots 11

2 Shots on Goal 5

1 Shots off Goal 4

3 Blocked Shots 2

4 Shots insidebox 7

2 Shots outsidebox 4

5 Corner Kicks 8

3 Offsides 0

18 Fouls 15

0 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

5 Goalkeeper Saves 1

373 Total passes 878

293 Passes accurate 800

79% Passes % 91%

-0.83 goals_prevented -0.83

Netherlands

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 B. Verbruggen G	8.3	120'	–	–	–	31 (19%)	–
24 C. Summerville F	7.2	120'	–	1	–	16 (14%)	3
9 W. Weghorst F	7.0	49'	–	–	–	9 (5%)	1
6 J. van Hecke D	6.9	120'	–	–	–	66 (56%)	4
19 B. Brobbey F	6.9	71'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	1
11 C. Gakpo F	6.9	113'	1	–	1	19 (9%)	1
21 F. de Jong M	6.9	110'	–	–	–	42 (37%)	2
4 V. van Dijk D	6.9	120'	–	–	–	68 (62%)	–
25 J. Hato D	6.7	34'	–	–	–	5 (2%)	2
26 Q. Timber M	6.7	34'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	–
7 J. Kluivert F	6.7	8'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
20 T. Koopmeiners M	6.6	49'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	2
15 M. van de Ven M	6.5	86'	–	–	2	11 (7%)	1
8 R. Gravenberch M	6.3	86'	–	–	–	24 (18%)	–
5 N. Aké D	6.3	71'	–	–	–	36 (32%)	–
3 M. de Roon M	6.3	10'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
22 D. Dumfries M	6.2	120'	–	–	–	16 (8%)	1

Morocco

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
3 Noussair Mazraoui D	7.7	120'	–	–	–	77 (68%)	5
14 Issa Diop D	7.3	120'	1	–	1	67 (65%)	–
24 Neil El Aynaoui M	7.3	120'	–	–	1	138 (134%)	4
8 Azzedine Ounahi M	7.3	86'	–	–	1	84 (79%)	–
6 Ayyoub Bouaddi M	6.9	79'	–	–	2	60 (54%)	2
26 Anass Salah-Eddine D	6.9	45'	–	–	–	51 (46%)	2
7 Chemsdine Talbi F	6.9	33'	–	1	–	16 (14%)	–
15 Samir El Mourabet M	6.9	41'	–	–	–	71 (64%)	–
9 Soufiane Rahimi F	6.9	34'	–	–	1	15 (13%)	–
2 Achraf Hakimi D	6.7	120'	–	–	2	97 (94%)	1
10 Brahim Díaz M	6.7	79'	–	–	–	35 (32%)	2
16 Gessime Yassine F	6.7	41'	–	–	–	21 (19%)	2
18 Chadi Riad D	6.5	75'	–	–	–	52 (50%)	–
1 Bono G	6.0	120'	–	–	–	23 (15%)	–
23 Bilal El Khannouss M	5.9	87'	–	–	1	46 (33%)	1
11 Ismael Saibari F	5.9	120'	–	–	–	25 (20%)	–

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Confidence Low (41%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Netherlands ou match nul

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.3%

Both teams to score

53%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

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Netherlands

DWWDW

Morocco

LWDWW

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match, the Netherlands will face Morocco in a crucial group stage encounter. The Netherlands boasts a strong attacking lineup, featuring players with significant experience in top European leagues, which could exploit Morocco's defensive vulnerabilities. Conversely, Morocco's solid defensive structure and quick counter-attacking play could pose a challenge for the Dutch backline. Both teams have shown resilience, but the tactical flexibility of the Netherlands may give them an edge in this matchup. Expect a tightly contested game with potential for individual brilliance to decide the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

41%

45%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

29%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Morocco goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	7	5	2	1
1	10	14	7	3	1
2	8	9	5	2	1
3	4	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Netherlands goals · most likely 1–1 (14.3%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

29%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

30%

Away Win

29%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

59% Home (No Draw) 41% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Home Win by 2+ 12% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

41% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals 29% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.7%	7.4%	5.1%	1.9%	0.5%
1	9.6%	14.3%	7.2%	2.7%	0.8%
2	7.8%	8.9%	5.0%	1.9%	0.5%
3	3.7%	4.1%	2.3%	0.9%	0.3%
4	1.3%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Netherlands	Draw	Morocco
Netherlands	25.0%	4.4%	1.6%
Draw	15.5%	19.0%	11.4%
Morocco	2.1%	4.4%	16.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

32%

37%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Netherlands vs Morocco

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Netherlands — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
30 Jun	H Morocco	D	1 - 1
25 Jun	A Tunisia	W	1 - 3
20 Jun	H Sweden	W	5 - 1
14 Jun	H Japan	D	2 - 2
08 Jun	H Uzbekistan	W	2 - 1

Morocco — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
09 Jul	A France	L	2 - 0
04 Jul	A Canada	W	0 - 3
30 Jun	A Netherlands	D	1 - 1
24 Jun	H Haiti	W	4 - 2
19 Jun	A Scotland	W	0 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Netherlands

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Ronald Koeman

1 Verbruggen

5 Aké

4 Dijk

6 Hecke

15 Ven

21 Jong

8 Gravenberch

22 Dumfries

11 Gakpo

24 Summerville

19 Brobbey

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Bart Verbruggen	G
6	Jan Paul van Hecke	D
4	Virgil van Dijk	D
5	Nathan Aké	D
22	Denzel Dumfries	M
8	Ryan Gravenberch	M
21	Frenkie de Jong	M
15	Micky van de Ven	M
24	Crysencio Summerville	F
11	Cody Gakpo	F
19	Brian Brobbey	F

Substitutes

20	Teun Koopmeiners	M
9	Wout Weghorst	F
25	Jorrel Hato	D
26	Quinten Timber	M
3	Marten de Roon	M
7	Justin Kluivert	F
23	Mark Flekken	G
13	Robin Roefs	G
2	Lutsharel Geertruida	D
12	Mats Wieffer	M
16	Guus Til	M
14	Tijjani Reijnders	M
18	Donyell Malen	F
10	Memphis Depay	F
17	Noa Lang	F

Morocco

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Mohamed Ouahbi

1 Bounou

3 Mazraoui

18 Riad

14 Diop

2 Hakimi

24 Aynaoui

6 Bouaddi

23 Khannouss

8 Ounahi

10 Díaz

11 Saibari

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Yassine Bounou	G
2	Achraf Hakimi	D
14	Issa Diop	D
18	Chadi Riad	D
3	Noussair Mazraoui	D
6	Ayyoub Bouaddi	M
24	Neil El Aynaoui	M
10	Brahim Díaz	M
8	Azzedine Ounahi	M
23	Bilal El Khannouss	M
11	Ismael Saibari	F

Substitutes

26	Anass Salah-Eddine	D
16	Gessime Yassine	F
15	Samir El Mourabet	M
9	Soufiane Rahimi	F
7	Chemsdine Talbi	F
22	Ahmed Reda Tagnaouti	G
12	Munir El Kajoui	G
5	Marwane Saadane	D
25	Redouane Halhal	D
19	Youssef Belammari	D
13	Zakaria El Ouahdi	D
17	Amine Sbai	F
4	Sofyan Amrabat	M
20	Ayoub El Kaabi	F
21	Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab	F