Marseille vs Rennes Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 34

Post on X

Rennes

Away

Llamada IA Marseille o empate

47%

24%

29%

Victoria local Empate Victoria visitante

Marseille vs Rennes prediction: Sportiko gives Marseille a 47% chance of winning, Rennes 29% and the draw 24%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Marseille made a blistering start at the Vélodrome, with Pierre-Emile Højbjerg heading the hosts in front inside two minutes before Amine Gouiri doubled the advantage in the tenth. Despite Rennes enjoying the majority of possession and generating 11 corner kicks across the contest, Marseille's clinical edge in the final third gave them a commanding 2–0 lead at the break.

The second half began with both sides making tactical adjustments, and Marseille quickly put the game to bed when Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang converted in the 55th minute to make it 3–0. Rennes, who matched Marseille's total of 27 shots but managed only six on target, pulled one back through substitute Esteban Lepaul in the 84th minute, though it proved little more than a consolation. A flurry of yellow cards — five in total across both teams — added some late needle to proceedings.

The result was the outcome our pre-match AI model considered most likely, having rated a Marseille victory at 47%. With 11 shots on target and an expected goals figure of 2.92, the hosts' efficiency in front of goal ultimately proved the difference.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg assist: Mason Greenwood

2' ⚽ 1–0

Amine Gouiri

10' ⚽ 2–0

HT 2–0

⇄ 46'

Sebastian Szymański ⇄ Breel Embolo

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Yellow Card

49' ▮

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang assist: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

55' ⚽ 3–0

⇄ 67'

Mousa Tamari ⇄ Arnaud Nordin

Igor Paixão ⇄ Arthur Vermeeren

72' ⇄

Amine Gouiri Yellow Card

76' ▮

▮ 79'

Mahdi Camara Yellow Card

⇄ 79'

Ludovic Blas ⇄ Nordan Mukiele

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg ⇄ Q. Timber

82' ⇄

Tochukwu Nnadi ⇄ Nouhoum Kamissoko

82' ⇄

⚽ 3–1 84'

Esteban Lepaul assist: Arnaud Nordin

Tim Weah ⇄ Benjamin Pavard

88' ⇄

Benjamin Pavard Yellow Card

90+5' ▮

FT 3–1

Marseille

Match Stats

Rennes

45% Ball Possession 55%

2.92 Expected Goals (xG) 2.49

27 Total Shots 27

11 Shots on Goal 6

9 Shots off Goal 14

7 Blocked Shots 7

19 Shots insidebox 20

8 Shots outsidebox 7

4 Corner Kicks 11

2 Offsides 2

11 Fouls 10

3 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

4 Goalkeeper Saves 8

399 Total passes 463

329 Passes accurate 394

82% Passes % 85%

-0.21 goals_prevented -0.21

Marseille

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg M	9.2	82'	1	1	2	56 (45%)	1
10 Mason Greenwood M	8.6	90'	–	1	3	40 (29%)	1
9 Amine Gouiri M	7.9	90'	1	–	1	44 (38%)	1
5 Leonardo Balerdi D	7.7	90'	–	–	1	35 (30%)	2
33 Emerson Palmieri D	7.5	90'	–	–	1	34 (29%)	3
32 Facundo Medina D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	43 (38%)	3
1 Gerónimo Rulli G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	26 (12%)	–
14 Igor Paixão M	7.2	72'	–	–	4	28 (27%)	3
22 Tim Weah D	7.0	88'	–	–	1	37 (33%)	1
17 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang F	7.0	90'	1	–	6	18 (13%)	–
71 Nouhoum Kamissoko M	6.7	8'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	1
28 Benjamin Pavard D	6.6	9'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
6 Tochukwu Nnadi M	6.6	82'	–	–	1	29 (27%)	1
27 Q. Timber M	6.5	8'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
18 Arthur Vermeeren M	6.5	18'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	1

Rennes

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
21 Valentin Rongier M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	83 (76%)	2
45 Mahdi Camara M	7.2	90'	–	–	2	42 (38%)	6
9 Esteban Lepaul F	7.2	90'	1	–	4	17 (11%)	–
50 Mathys Silistrie G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	25 (22%)	–
70 Arnaud Nordin F	7.2	23'	–	1	1	19 (13%)	1
48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal D	6.9	90'	–	–	2	45 (41%)	–
65 Nordan Mukiele F	6.7	11'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–
11 Mousa Tamari M	6.6	67'	–	–	4	20 (16%)	2
10 Ludovic Blas M	6.5	79'	–	–	2	32 (27%)	2
26 Quentin Merlin D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	49 (43%)	1
17 Sebastian Szymański M	6.3	45'	–	–	–	23 (16%)	1
24 Anthony Rouault D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	36 (26%)	–
7 Breel Embolo F	6.2	45'	–	–	4	13 (11%)	–
18 Mahamadou Nagida D	6.2	90'	–	–	1	53 (48%)	2

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Confidence Medium (61%)

At a glance

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Marseille

WWWLD

Rennes

DWWLL

Last 3 meetings Marseille · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash on May 16, 2026, Marseille will host Rennes at the Stade Vélodrome. Marseille has shown strong home form this season, boasting an average of 2.1 goals per game, while their defense has conceded just 1.0 goals per match at home. Conversely, Rennes has been more inconsistent on the road, with an average of 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per away game. Key players to watch include Marseille's leading scorer, who has netted 15 goals this season, and Rennes' playmaker, who has contributed significantly to their attacking play. This match could be pivotal for both teams in their pursuit of European competition spots, making it a must-watch encounter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Rennes goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	6	4	2	1
1	9	11	7	3	1
2	7	10	6	3	1
3	4	5	4	2
4	2	2	2	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Marseille goals · most likely 1–1 (11.0%)

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Head to Head: Marseille vs Rennes

2 Marseille Wins

0 Draws

1 Rennes Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
15 Aug 2025	Rennes	1 - 0	Marseille
17 May 2025	Marseille	4 - 2	Rennes
11 Jan 2025	Rennes	1 - 2	Marseille

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Marseille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
30 Jul	H Nimes	W	2 - 1
17 May	H Rennes	W	3 - 1
10 May	A Le Havre	W	0 - 1
02 May	A Nantes	L	3 - 0
26 Apr	H Nice	D	1 - 1

Rennes — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	A Galatasaray	D	3 - 3
25 Jul	H Club Brugge KV	W	2 - 1
17 Jul	H Guingamp	W	2 - 1
09 Jul	H Caen	L	1 - 2
17 May	A Marseille	L	3 - 1

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0