FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München Predicción
Predicción FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: Sportiko le da a FSV Mainz 05 un 22% de probabilidad de ganar, a Bayern München un 58% y al empate un 20%. Última actualización: 27 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
FSV Mainz 05 produced a stunning first half to lead 3–0 at the break, with Dominik Kohr, Paul Nebel, and Sheraldo Becker all finding the net before the interval. Mainz dominated possession at 70% and looked well on course for a memorable victory, though Kohr picked up a yellow card shortly after his opener and Konrad Laimer was also cautioned for Bayern.
The second half told an entirely different story. Bayern, who had made two substitutions at half-time, launched a remarkable comeback with four unanswered goals. Nicolas Jackson started the fightback in the 53rd minute, before Michael Olise, Jamal Musiala, and Harry Kane struck in a breathless spell between the 73rd and 83rd minutes to complete the turnaround. Bayern's 21 total shots to Mainz's 11 underlined their persistent threat throughout, and their expected goals figure of 2.69 ultimately proved a more accurate reflection of the contest.
Our pre-match AI model had rated a Bayern win as the most likely outcome at 58%, a call that proved correct despite the dramatic circumstances. The result keeps Bayern firmly in contention at the top of the Bundesliga.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
FSV Mainz 05
Match Stats
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sheraldo Becker F | 7.7 | 71' | 1 | – | 4 | 11 (9%) | 1 |
| 6 Kaishu Sano M | 7.3 | 90' | – | 1 | 2 | 23 (20%) | 4 |
| 20 Phillip Tietz F | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 15 (11%) | 1 |
| 8 Paul Nebel M | 7.2 | 85' | 1 | – | 2 | 19 (14%) | 4 |
| 10 Nadiem Amiri M | 7.0 | 79' | – | – | 4 | 15 (14%) | – |
| 30 Silvan Widmer M | 6.9 | 80' | – | – | 1 | 10 (8%) | 2 |
| 31 Dominik Kohr D | 6.7 | 85' | 1 | – | 1 | 23 (21%) | – |
| 14 William Bøving F | 6.7 | 13' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | 1 |
| 2 Phillipp Mwene M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 22 (17%) | 2 |
| 15 Lennard Maloney M | 6.5 | 11' | – | – | – | 6 (4%) | – |
| 33 Daniel Batz G | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (14%) | – |
| 11 Armindo Sieb F | 6.3 | 19' | – | – | 1 | 8 (7%) | – |
| 19 Anthony Caci D | 6.3 | 10' | – | – | – | 7 (5%) | 2 |
| 4 Stefan Posch D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 37 (27%) | 5 |
| 44 Nelson Weiper F | 6.2 | 13' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | – |
| 21 Danny da Costa D | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 24 (18%) | 1 |
Bayern München
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Michael Olise M | 8.5 | 45' | 1 | – | 1 | 31 (23%) | – |
| 40 Jonas Urbig G | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 27 (21%) | – |
| 11 Nicolas Jackson F | 7.3 | 90' | 1 | – | 3 | 26 (18%) | 2 |
| 9 Harry Kane F | 7.3 | 45' | 1 | – | 1 | 9 (6%) | – |
| 10 Jamal Musiala M | 7.2 | 33' | 1 | – | 2 | 13 (13%) | 1 |
| 8 Leon Goretzka M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 48 (42%) | 2 |
| 4 Jonathan Tah D | 6.9 | 13' | – | – | – | 13 (12%) | – |
| 39 Bara Sapoko Ndiaye M | 6.9 | 77' | – | – | – | 61 (57%) | 4 |
| 27 Konrad Laimer D | 6.9 | 90' | – | 2 | 1 | 69 (65%) | 1 |
| 44 Josip Stanišić D | 6.9 | 33' | – | – | – | 18 (16%) | 2 |
| 45 Aleksandar Pavlović M | 6.7 | 45' | – | – | – | 49 (49%) | – |
| 3 Kim Min-jae D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 98 (92%) | 2 |
| 21 Hiroki Itō D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 77 (74%) | 1 |
| 14 Luis Díaz M | 6.2 | 45' | – | – | – | 23 (17%) | – |
| 19 Alphonso Davies D | 6.0 | 57' | – | – | 1 | 31 (30%) | – |
| 22 Raphaël Guerreiro M | 5.9 | 57' | – | – | 1 | 25 (20%) | – |
Desbloquea el análisis completo de la IA para FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München
- Todos los mercados de probabilidad (70+)
- Reporte de partido — Análisis Profundo IA
- Ventaja de Valor — modelo vs. mercado
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
P. Tietz
4 gls
S. Becker
2 gls
M. Olise
4 gls
H. Kane
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Dec 2025 | Bayern München | 2 - 2 | FSV Mainz 05 |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Bayern München | 3 - 0 | FSV Mainz 05 |
| 14 Dec 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2 - 1 | Bayern München |
FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 - 4 |
| 12 Sep | H Eintracht Frankfurt | L | 1 - 3 |
| 06 Sep | A Hamburger SV | W | 0 - 5 |
| 29 Aug | H SC Paderborn 07 | D | 0 - 0 |
| 23 Aug | A Krieschow | W | 0 - 9 |
Bayern München — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | H Union Berlin | W | 7 - 0 |
| 13 Sep | A SV Elversberg | W | 1 - 2 |
| 10 Sep | H Bodo/Glimt | W | 5 - 0 |
| 05 Sep | A FC Schalke 04 | D | 0 - 0 |
| 02 Sep | A VfL Osnabrück | W | 1 - 4 |
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 |
Bayern München
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 |
SC Freiburg
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 |
FC Augsburg
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |
Bayer Leverkusen
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |
FSV Mainz 05
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |
SV Elversberg
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |
Werder Bremen
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 |
RB Leipzig
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 |
FC Schalke 04
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |
SC Paderborn 07
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 |
1. FC Köln
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 |
Hamburger SV
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 |
Union Berlin
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 |
Borussia Mönchengladbach
|
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 |
Bayern München
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: V. Kompany
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | J. Urbig | G |
| 27 | K. Laimer | D |
| 3 | Kim Min-Jae | D |
| 21 | H. Ito | D |
| 19 | A. Davies | D |
| 39 | B. Ndiaye | M |
| 45 | A. Pavlovic | M |
| 22 | R. Guerreiro | M |
| 8 | L. Goretzka | M |
| 14 | L. Diaz | M |
| 11 | N. Jackson | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | M. Neuer | G |
| 4 | J. Tah | D |
| 17 | M. Olise | M |
| 9 | H. Kane | F |
| 44 | J. Stanisic | D |
| 10 | J. Musiala | M |
| 34 | D. Ofli | D |
| 33 | B. Assomo | F |
| 43 | F. Pavic | D |
FSV Mainz 05
Formation: 3-5-2
Coach: U. Fischer
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | D. Batz | G |
| 21 | D. da Costa | D |
| 4 | S. Posch | D |
| 31 | D. Kohr | D |
| 30 | S. Widmer | M |
| 8 | P. Nebel | M |
| 6 | K. Sano | M |
| 10 | N. Amiri | M |
| 2 | P. Mwene | M |
| 23 | S. Becker | F |
| 20 | P. Tietz | F |
Substitutes
| 27 | R. Zentner | G |
| 19 | A. Caci | D |
| 15 | L. Maloney | M |
| 11 | A. Sieb | F |
| 14 | W. Boving | F |
| 24 | S. Kawasaki | M |
| 22 | N. Veratschnig | D |
| 44 | N. Weiper | F |
| 48 | K. Potulski | D |