FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg Predicción
Predicción FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg: Sportiko le da a FSV Mainz 05 un 47% de probabilidad de ganar, a SC Freiburg un 27% y al empate un 26%. Última actualización: 26 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
FSV Mainz 05 fell to a narrow 1–0 home defeat against SC Freiburg in Bundesliga Matchday 29, with the decisive moment arriving just seconds into the second half. The first half was an evenly contested, goalless affair, though both sides picked up yellow cards before the break.
Freiburg struck almost immediately after the restart, scoring in the 47th minute to take a lead they would not relinquish. Nikolas Veratschnig was booked at 55 minutes before being withdrawn shortly after, while both managers turned to their benches throughout the second half in search of impact, with a combined nine substitutions made across the two sides.
The statistics underlined just how tight the contest was — possession was split almost evenly at 49–51, shots on goal were level at three apiece, and expected goals figures of 0.56 versus 0.55 reflected a game that could have gone either way. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Mainz win as the most likely outcome at 47%, a call that ultimately did not come to pass, as Freiburg's clinical early second-half strike proved the difference.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
FSV Mainz 05
Match Stats
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Stefan Posch D | 8.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 51 (36%) | 7 |
| 33 Daniel Batz G | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (28%) | – |
| 21 Danny da Costa D | 7.3 | 83' | – | – | 1 | 33 (25%) | 4 |
| 10 Nadiem Amiri M | 6.9 | 28' | – | – | – | 17 (13%) | 1 |
| 19 Anthony Caci D | 6.9 | 16' | – | – | – | 15 (12%) | 2 |
| 23 Sheraldo Becker F | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 15 (9%) | – |
| 24 Sota Kawasaki M | 6.7 | 62' | – | – | – | 16 (13%) | 1 |
| 30 Silvan Widmer D | 6.6 | 28' | – | – | 2 | 7 (7%) | – |
| 31 Dominik Kohr D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 40 (31%) | 2 |
| 8 Paul Nebel M | 6.6 | 74' | – | – | – | 16 (13%) | 1 |
| 11 Armindo Sieb F | 6.6 | 16' | – | – | 1 | 7 (7%) | – |
| 6 Kaishu Sano M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 39 (29%) | – |
| 44 Nelson Weiper F | 6.5 | 15' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 20 Phillip Tietz F | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 20 (11%) | 1 |
| 22 Nikolas Veratschnig D | 6.5 | 62' | – | – | 1 | 12 (7%) | 4 |
| 2 Phillipp Mwene D | 6.3 | 74' | – | – | – | 13 (10%) | – |
SC Freiburg
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 Johan Manzambi M | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 46 (39%) | 2 |
| 1 Noah Atubolu G | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 34 (27%) | – |
| 28 Matthias Ginter D | 7.3 | 83' | – | 1 | – | 48 (40%) | – |
| 3 Philipp Lienhart D | 7.2 | 45' | – | – | – | 21 (16%) | – |
| 30 Christian Günter D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (18%) | 1 |
| 9 Lucas Höler M | 7.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 20 (14%) | 1 |
| 7 Derry Scherhant M | 7.0 | 74' | – | – | – | 4 (3%) | 1 |
| 19 Jan-Niklas Beste D | 6.9 | 26' | – | – | – | 6 (4%) | 1 |
| 33 Jordy Makengo D | 6.9 | 15' | – | – | – | 6 (4%) | 1 |
| 29 Philipp Treu D | 6.7 | 26' | – | – | – | 4 (3%) | – |
| 32 Vincenzo Grifo M | 6.7 | 16' | – | – | – | 5 (4%) | – |
| 17 Lukas Kübler D | 6.6 | 64' | – | – | – | 17 (15%) | – |
| 22 Cyriaque Irié M | 6.6 | 64' | – | – | – | 20 (18%) | 2 |
| 43 Bruno Ogbus D | 6.3 | 45' | – | – | – | 26 (24%) | – |
| 8 Maximilian Eggestein M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 44 (37%) | – |
| 31 Igor Matanović F | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 13 (6%) | 3 |
Desbloquea el análisis completo de la IA para FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg
- Todos los mercados de probabilidad (70+)
- Reporte de partido — Análisis Profundo IA
- Ventaja de Valor — modelo vs. mercado
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
P. Tietz
4 gls
S. Becker
2 gls
Y. Suzuki
4 gls
I. Matanović
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov 2025 | SC Freiburg | 4 - 0 | FSV Mainz 05 |
| 15 Mar 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2 - 2 | SC Freiburg |
| 03 Nov 2024 | SC Freiburg | 0 - 0 | FSV Mainz 05 |
FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 - 4 |
| 12 Sep | H Eintracht Frankfurt | L | 1 - 3 |
| 06 Sep | A Hamburger SV | W | 0 - 5 |
| 29 Aug | H SC Paderborn 07 | D | 0 - 0 |
| 23 Aug | A Krieschow | W | 0 - 9 |
SC Freiburg — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Eintracht Frankfurt | D | 2 - 2 |
| 12 Sep | H Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 5 - 0 |
| 05 Sep | A SC Paderborn 07 | W | 0 - 1 |
| 30 Aug | H Werder Bremen | W | 4 - 1 |
| 27 Aug | H Motherwell | W | 4 - 1 |
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 |
Bayern München
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 |
SC Freiburg
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 |
FC Augsburg
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |
Bayer Leverkusen
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |
FSV Mainz 05
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |
SV Elversberg
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |
Werder Bremen
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 |
RB Leipzig
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 |
FC Schalke 04
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |
SC Paderborn 07
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 |
1. FC Köln
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 |
Hamburger SV
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 |
Union Berlin
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 |
Borussia Mönchengladbach
|
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 |
SC Freiburg
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: J. Schuster
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Atubolu | G |
| 17 | L. Kubler | D |
| 28 | M. Ginter | D |
| 43 | B. Ogbus | D |
| 30 | C. Gunter | D |
| 8 | M. Eggestein | M |
| 44 | J. Manzambi | M |
| 22 | C. Irie | M |
| 9 | L. Holer | M |
| 7 | D. Scherhant | M |
| 31 | I. Matanovic | F |
Substitutes
| 21 | F. Muller | G |
| 27 | N. Hofler | M |
| 32 | V. Grifo | M |
| 26 | M. Philipp | F |
| 14 | Y. Suzuki | M |
| 33 | J. Makengo | D |
| 3 | P. Lienhart | D |
| 19 | J. Beste | D |
| 29 | P. Treu | D |
FSV Mainz 05
Formation: 5-3-2
Coach: U. Fischer
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | D. Batz | G |
| 22 | N. Veratschnig | D |
| 21 | D. da Costa | D |
| 4 | S. Posch | D |
| 31 | D. Kohr | D |
| 2 | P. Mwene | D |
| 24 | S. Kawasaki | M |
| 6 | K. Sano | M |
| 8 | P. Nebel | M |
| 20 | P. Tietz | F |
| 23 | S. Becker | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | L. Riess | G |
| 30 | S. Widmer | D |
| 10 | N. Amiri | M |
| 19 | A. Caci | D |
| 15 | L. Maloney | M |
| 11 | A. Sieb | F |
| 14 | W. Boving | F |
| 44 | N. Weiper | F |
| 48 | K. Potulski | D |