HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa Predicción

UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

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Raków Częstochowa

Away

Llamada IA HNK Hajduk Split o empate

42%

28%

29%

Victoria local Empate Victoria visitante

Predicción HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa: Sportiko le da a HNK Hajduk Split un 42% de probabilidad de ganar, a Raków Częstochowa un 29% y al empate un 28%. Última actualización: 20 Aug 2026, 20:57.

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Match Report

Hajduk Split and Raków Częstochowa played out a dramatic 2–2 draw in their UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round clash at Poljud. The hosts took the lead through Michele Šego in the 21st minute, only for Mahir Emreli to level for Raków just six minutes later. The first half was feisty, with yellow cards shown to Erick Otieno and Šimun Hrgović either side of the break.

Raków turned the tie on its head seconds into the second half when Dalisson de Almeida struck at 47 minutes, and Hajduk's task grew harder still when Adrion Pajaziti was dismissed with a red card in the 55th minute. Both managers turned to their benches, with a flurry of substitutions reshaping the contest through the hour mark.

Despite their numerical disadvantage, Hajduk — who dominated possession at 60% — found a late equaliser through Mohamed Lamine Diaby deep into stoppage time at 90+5'. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Hajduk win as the most likely outcome at 42%, a reasonable call given their overall control of the match. The aggregate tie remains finely poised heading into the second leg.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Michele Šego assist: Abdoulie Sanyang Bamba

21' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 27'

Mahir Emreli assist: Erick Otieno

▮ 31'

Erick Otieno Yellow Card

Šimun Hrgović Yellow Card

33' ▮

HT 1–1

⇄ 46'

Stratos Svarnas

Dalisson de Almeida assist: Marin Šotiček

47' ⚽ 2–1

Adrion Pajaziti Red Card

55' ▮

⇄ 58'

Oliwier Kwiatkowski ⇄ Tomasz Pieńko

⇄ 58'

Erick Otieno ⇄ Jean Carlos Silva

Marin Šotiček ⇄ Alberto del Moral

61' ⇄

Dalisson de Almeida Yellow Card

62' ▮

⇄ 67'

Fran Tudor ⇄ Arvid Brorsson

Abdoulie Sanyang Bamba ⇄ Anđelo Šutalo

68' ⇄

Dalisson de Almeida ⇄ Dario Melnjak

68' ⇄

⇄ 74'

Wladyslaw Kocherhin ⇄ Isak Brusberg

Michele Šego ⇄ Marko Livaja

76' ⇄

Šimun Hrgović ⇄ Alec Van Hoorenbeeck

77' ⇄

Alberto del Moral Yellow Card

79' ▮

▮ 81'

Tomasz Pieńko Yellow Card

Rokas Pukštas Yellow Card

90+4' ▮

⚽ 2–2 90+5'

Mohamed Lamine Diaby

FT 2–2

HNK Hajduk Split

Match Stats

Raków Częstochowa

60% Ball Possession 40%

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

2 Shots on Goal 4

7 Shots off Goal 2

4 Blocked Shots 1

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

7 Corner Kicks 5

2 Offsides 1

13 Fouls 7

3 Yellow Cards 2

1 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Low (42%)

At a glance

Nuestra inclinación

HNK Hajduk Split o empate

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.8%

Both teams to score

57%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

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HNK Hajduk Split

LWWWW

Raków Częstochowa

LLWLL

Last 1 meetings HNK Hajduk Split · 1W 0D 0L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

42%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

29%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Raków Częstochowa goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	7	6	3	1
1	7	14	8	4	1
2	6	8	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ HNK Hajduk Split goals · most likely 1–1 (13.8%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

42%

Away Win

29%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

42%

Away Win

29%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

51% Home (No Draw) 49% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

17% Home Win by 2+ 17% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

36% Home Scores More 35% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.1%	7.3%	6.0%	2.7%	0.9%
1	7.4%	13.8%	8.3%	3.8%	1.3%
2	6.2%	8.4%	5.7%	2.6%	0.9%
3	2.8%	3.9%	2.6%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

49%

1.5

51%

77%

2.5

23%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

28%

15%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	HNK Hajduk Split	Draw	Raków Częstochowa
HNK Hajduk Split	20.5%	4.7%	2.5%
Draw	14.4%	17.9%	14.9%
Raków Częstochowa	2.1%	4.2%	18.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa

1 HNK Hajduk Split Wins

0 Draws

0 Raków Częstochowa Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
27 Aug 2026	Raków Częstochowa	2 - 3	HNK Hajduk Split

HNK Hajduk Split — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A HNK Rijeka	L	3 - 0
13 Sep	H NK Slaven Belupo	W	1 - 0
08 Sep	A Vardarac	W	0 - 2
06 Sep	A Rudes	W	0 - 4
31 Aug	H NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	W	2 - 0

Raków Częstochowa — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Korona Kielce	L	3 - 2
15 Sep	H Zaglebie Lubin	L	2 - 3
11 Sep	H Motor Lublin	W	2 - 1
06 Sep	A Lech Poznan	L	1 - 0
03 Sep	H Gornik Zabrze	L	1 - 2

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

HNK Hajduk Split

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Gonzalo Garcia

33 Silić

32 Hrgović

14 Raçi

15 Marešić

8 Sigur

21 Pukštas

4 Pajaziti

23 Šotiček

9 Almeida

7 Bamba

11 Šego

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
33	Toni Silić	G
8	Niko Sigur	D
15	Dario Marešić	D
14	Ron Raçi	D
32	Šimun Hrgović	D
4	Adrion Pajaziti	M
21	Rokas Pukštas	M
7	Abdoulie Sanyang Bamba	M
9	Dalisson de Almeida	M
23	Marin Šotiček	M
11	Michele Šego	F

Substitutes

20	Alberto del Moral	M
1	Ivica Ivušić	G
44	Dante Stipica	G
3	Roko Gabrić	D
5	Alec Van Hoorenbeeck	D
17	Dario Melnjak	D
36	Marino Skelin	D
38	Luka Hodak	D
16	Anđelo Šutalo	M
19	Etnik Brruti	M
26	Adam Huram	M
10	Marko Livaja	F

Raków Częstochowa

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: Dawid Kroczek

1 Trelowski

4 Svarnas

25 Racovițan

7 Tudor

26 Otieno

10 Kocherhin

6 Repka

19 Ameyaw

15 Kwiatkowski

11 Emreli

80 Diaby

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Kacper Trelowski	G
7	Fran Tudor	D
25	Bogdan Racovițan	D
4	Stratos Svarnas	D
19	Michael Ameyaw	M
6	Oskar Repka	M
10	Wladyslaw Kocherhin	M
26	Erick Otieno	M
80	Mohamed Lamine Diaby	F
11	Mahir Emreli	F
15	Oliwier Kwiatkowski	M

Substitutes

77	Didí Gaucho	D
20	Jean Carlos Silva	M
21	Tomasz Pieńko	M
29	Wiktor Żołneczko	G
71	Tarik Karić	G
3	Arvid Brorsson	D
2	Jerzy Napieraj	M
17	Jakub Jendryka	M
23	Karol Struski	M
39	Isak Brusberg	M
88	Ádin Molnár	M