Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa Predicción

Liga MX · Apertura - 13

21 Oct 2026, 03:07

Post on X

Necaxa

Away

Estadio AKRON, Zapopan

Llamada IA Difícil victoria o empate de Necaxa

12%

26%

62%

Victoria local Empate Victoria visitante

Predicción Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa: Sportiko le da a Guadalajara Chivas un 12% de probabilidad de ganar, a Necaxa un 62% y al empate un 26%. Última actualización: 31 Aug 2026, 15:58.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

0:1 · 15.6%

Both teams to score

39%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

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Guadalajara Chivas

DWWDW

Necaxa

LLDLD

Last 2 meetings Guadalajara Chivas · 1W 1D 0L

Match summary

Guadalajara Chivas enter the match against Necaxa with a strong home record, having secured 60% of their points at home this season. Their offensive line has been effective, averaging 1.5 goals per match, while their defense has conceded just 0.8 goals per match. Necaxa, on the other hand, struggles on the road, with a win rate of only 30% away from home. They will need to improve their scoring efficiency, as they average just 1 goal per match. Expect Chivas to leverage their attacking prowess against a Necaxa side that must tighten its defense to avoid a potential defeat.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

12%

10%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

62%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Necaxa goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	16	14	8	4	1
1	5	12	9	5	2	1
2	2	3	3	2	1
3		1	1
4
5

↑ Guadalajara Chivas goals · most likely 0–1 (15.6%)

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Players in form

Guadalajara Chivas

R. Alvarado 3 gls

Necaxa

J. Carranza 5 gls

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Match Result

Away Win

62%

Draw

26%

Home Win

12%

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

62%

Draw

26%

Home Win

12%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

84% Away (No Draw) 16% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

36% Away Win by 2+ 3% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

62% Away Scores More 26% Equal Goals 12% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

20%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.3%	15.6%	14.5%	8.3%	3.5%
1	4.7%	11.7%	8.8%	5.0%	2.2%
2	1.8%	3.2%	2.7%	1.5%	0.7%
3	0.4%	0.6%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Guadalajara Chivas	Draw	Necaxa
Guadalajara Chivas	6.4%	3.1%	2.0%
Draw	5.2%	17.9%	21.9%
Necaxa	0.6%	3.0%	40.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

54%

33%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

49%

1.5

51%

76%

2.5

24%

91%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa

1 Guadalajara Chivas Wins

1 Draws

0 Necaxa Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
23 Apr 2026	Necaxa	0 - 0	Guadalajara Chivas
23 Sep 2025	Guadalajara Chivas	3 - 1	Necaxa

Guadalajara Chivas — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Club America	D	2 - 2
14 Sep	H U.N.A.M. - Pumas	W	3 - 0
05 Sep	A Atletico San Luis	W	0 - 3
29 Aug	A CF Pachuca	D	1 - 1
22 Aug	H Club Tijuana	W	5 - 2

Necaxa — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Atletico San Luis	L	3 - 1
12 Sep	H Puebla	L	0 - 1
06 Sep	A Tigres UANL	D	1 - 1
29 Aug	H Cruz Azul	L	1 - 3
24 Aug	A U.N.A.M. - Pumas	D	1 - 1

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	+11	19
2	Guadalajara Chivas	9	5	3	1	17	8	+9	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	+9	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	+1	15
5	Club Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	+3	14
6	Club Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	+2	14
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	+2	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	0	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	-2	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	+4	13
11	CF Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	+5	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	-1	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	-5	9
14	Atlante FC	9	1	5	3	8	13	-5	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	-6	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	-4	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	-6	7
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	6	23	-17	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.