Racing Santander vs Alaves Predicción

La Liga · Regular Season - 5

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Alaves

Away

Llamada IA Alaves o empate

33%

28%

40%

Victoria local Empate Victoria visitante

Predicción Racing Santander vs Alaves: Sportiko le da a Racing Santander un 33% de probabilidad de ganar, a Alaves un 40% y al empate un 28%. Última actualización: 12 Sep 2026, 13:59.

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Match Report

Racing Santander claimed a 2–1 victory over Alaves in matchday five of La Liga, despite the visitors dominating possession with 57%. The game began in feisty fashion, with yellow cards shown to Nahuel Tenaglia and Pablo Ibáñez inside the opening eight minutes — both players subsequently withdrawn at half-time. Ville Koski opened the scoring for Alaves on 18 minutes, before Yassir Zabiri levelled for Racing on 38 minutes to send the sides in level at the break.

Zabiri proved the decisive figure in the second half, adding a second goal on 53 minutes to put Racing ahead. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Alaves win as the most likely outcome at 40%, a call that did not materialise. Racing's greater cutting edge was reflected in the stats, with the hosts registering eight shots on goal to Alaves's four.

Alaves's hopes of a comeback were further damaged late on when André Almeida received a red card on 89 minutes following a VAR review upgrading his earlier caution. Racing held firm to secure all three points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 7'

Nahuel Tenaglia Yellow Card

▮ 8'

Pablo Ibáñez Yellow Card

⚽ 0–1 18'

Ville Koski

Yassir Zabiri Yellow Card

35' ▮

Yassir Zabiri assist: Iñigo Vicente

38' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 45'

Pablo Ibáñez ⇄ Carlos Benavídez

⇄ 45'

Nahuel Tenaglia ⇄ Nicolás Valentini

HT 1–1

Yassir Zabiri

53' ⚽ 2–1

▮ 62'

Antonio Blanco Yellow Card

Jorge Salinas Yellow Card

62' ▮

Pablo García ⇄ André Almeida

65' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Antonio Blanco ⇄ Carles Aleñá

⇄ 67'

Mariano Diaz ⇄ Toni Martínez

Yassir Zabiri ⇄ Giorgi Guliashvili

74' ⇄

Sergio Canales ⇄ Iker Luque

74' ⇄

Matteo Prati ⇄ Maguette Gueye

83' ⇄

Iñigo Vicente ⇄ Asier Villalibre

83' ⇄

⇄ 86'

Ángel Pérez ⇄ Aitor Mañas

André Almeida Card upgrade confirmed

88' 🖵

André Almeida Red Card

89' ▮

Giorgi Guliashvili ⇄ Pedro Felipe

90+7' ⇄

⇄ 90+7'

Aitor Mañas ⇄ Miguel Rodríguez

FT 2–1

Racing Santander

Match Stats

Alaves

57% Ball Possession 43%

11 Total Shots 16

4 Shots on Goal 8

4 Shots off Goal 3

3 Blocked Shots 5

8 Shots insidebox 10

3 Shots outsidebox 6

4 Corner Kicks 6

2 Offsides 9

16 Fouls 17

2 Yellow Cards 3

1 Red Cards 0

7 Goalkeeper Saves 2

449 Total passes 327

352 Passes accurate 246

17 Free Kicks 15

Racing Santander

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
21 Yassir Zabiri F	9.0	74'	2	–	5	16 (12%)	1
13 Julen Agirrezabala G	8.8	90'	–	–	–	20 (17%)	–
10 Iñigo Vicente M	7.1	83'	–	1	–	62 (43%)	2
24 Jeanuël Belocian D	7.0	90'	–	–	1	53 (47%)	–
19 Iker Luque F	6.7	16'	–	–	1	3 (1%)	–
23 Iván Martín M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	59 (51%)	3
12 Asier Villalibre F	6.5	7'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
7 Giorgi Guliashvili F	6.5	23'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
5 Pablo Ramón D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	53 (42%)	2
2 Alvaro Mantilla D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	41 (33%)	2
20 Sergio Canales M	6.3	74'	–	–	1	30 (24%)	4
15 Pablo García M	6.2	65'	–	–	3	13 (12%)	–
14 Maguette Gueye M	6.2	7'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
17 Jorge Salinas D	6.1	90'	–	–	–	42 (27%)	2
18 Matteo Prati M	5.8	83'	–	–	–	35 (26%)	4
8 André Almeida M	5.4	24'	–	–	–	15 (11%)	1

Alaves

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Jonny Otto D	7.1	90'	–	–	1	47 (41%)	3
16 Ville Koski D	6.9	90'	1	–	1	30 (25%)	–
11 Toni Martínez F	6.6	23'	–	–	1	3 (1%)	1
21 Abderrahman Rebbach M	6.6	90'	–	–	2	23 (22%)	4
15 Lucas Boyé F	6.5	90'	–	–	4	13 (9%)	2
4 Denis Suarez M	6.3	90'	–	–	–	43 (34%)	2
20 Aitor Mañas F	6.3	11'	–	–	–	–	–
9 Mariano Diaz F	6.2	67'	–	–	3	8 (5%)	–
14 Nahuel Tenaglia D	6.1	46'	–	–	–	12 (11%)	1
23 Carlos Benavídez M	6.1	44'	–	–	1	18 (14%)	1
1 Antonio Sivera G	5.9	90'	–	–	–	26 (15%)	–
10 Carles Aleñá M	5.9	23'	–	–	–	9 (5%)	–
2 Nicolás Valentini D	5.8	44'	–	–	–	21 (14%)	–
8 Antonio Blanco M	5.7	67'	–	–	1	31 (23%)	2
19 Pablo Ibáñez M	5.7	46'	–	–	–	10 (6%)	–
7 Ángel Pérez M	5.5	86'	–	–	2	33 (21%)	3

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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Nuestra inclinación

Alaves o empate

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.7%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Racing Santander

LLWLW

Alaves

DLLWW

Last 1 meetings Racing Santander · 0W 1D 0L

Match summary

Racing Santander will face Alaves in a La Liga clash where both teams will look to capitalize on their recent form. Racing Santander has shown a solid defensive setup, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per match this season, while Alaves has struggled offensively, averaging only 0.8 goals per game. Key players to watch include Racing's leading scorer, who has netted 4 goals in the last five matches, and Alaves' playmaker, whose creative passing could be crucial in breaking down Santander's defense. This matchup will be pivotal for both teams as they seek to secure valuable points in the league.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

33%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

40%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Alaves goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	10	9	5	2	1
1	6	14	9	5	2	1
2	4	7	5	3	1
3	2	2	2	1
4		1
5

↑ Racing Santander goals · most likely 1–1 (13.7%)

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Players in form

Racing Santander

M. Zabiri 6 gls

Alaves

L. Boyé 4 gls

M. Díaz 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

40%

Home Win

33%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

40%

Home Win

33%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

65% Away (No Draw) 35% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

25% Away Win by 2+ 10% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

47% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals 25% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.8%	9.6%	8.7%	4.5%	1.8%
1	6.2%	13.7%	9.4%	4.9%	1.9%
2	4.2%	6.5%	5.1%	2.7%	1.0%
3	1.5%	2.4%	1.8%	1.0%	0.4%
4	0.4%	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

41%

35%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

47%

1.5

53%

75%

2.5

25%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

20%

28%

15%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Racing Santander	Draw	Alaves
Racing Santander	12.3%	4.1%	2.8%
Draw	11.6%	18.5%	20.5%
Alaves	1.7%	4.0%	24.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

34%

37%

20%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Racing Santander vs Alaves

0 Racing Santander Wins

1 Draws

0 Alaves Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
07 Aug 2026	Racing Santander	1 - 1	Alaves

Racing Santander — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Celta Vigo	L	5 - 0
16 Sep	A Barcelona	L	7 - 2
12 Sep	H Alaves	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Rayo Vallecano	L	3 - 2
28 Aug	H Elche	W	3 - 2

Alaves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Athletic Club	D	0 - 0
15 Sep	H Valencia	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Racing Santander	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Osasuna	W	5 - 2
28 Aug	H Villarreal	W	1 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Alaves

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores

1 Sivera

17 Jonny

16 Koski

14 Tenaglia

21 Rebbach

4 Suárez

8 Blanco

19 Ibáñez

7 Pérez

9 Díaz

15 Boyé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Sivera	G
14	N. Tenaglia	D
16	V. Koski	D
17	Jonny	D
7	Angel Pérez	M
19	Pablo Ibáñez	M
8	Antonio Blanco	M
4	Denis Suárez	M
21	A. Rebbach	M
15	L. Boyé	F
9	M. Díaz	F

Substitutes

12	Hugo Novoa	F
2	N. Valentini	D
27	X. Olaiz	D
3	Yusi	D
23	C. Benavídez	M
22	Miguel Rodríguez	F
6	Guevara	M
24	Selu Diallo	M
10	Carles Aleñá	M
11	Toni Martínez	F
20	Aitor Mañas	F
13	A. Giménez	G