Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves Predicción

La Liga · Regular Season - 2

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Alaves

Away

Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganés

Llamada IA Rayo Vallecano o empate

40%

31%

30%

Victoria local Empate Victoria visitante

Predicción Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves: Sportiko le da a Rayo Vallecano un 40% de probabilidad de ganar, a Alaves un 30% y al empate un 31%. Última actualización: 20 Aug 2026, 21:02.

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Más de 1.5 goles 75%
Local anota 74%
Visitante anota 72%
1st Half Home or Draw 73%

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Match Report

Rayo Vallecano and Alaves played out a 1–1 draw at Vallecas in what proved to be a match of fine margins. The first half was goalless but not without incident, as a Pelayo Fernández effort was ruled out by VAR for handball on the stroke of half-time, a decision that proved significant to how the game unfolded. Rayo also lost Isi Palazón to an early substitution in the 17th minute.

Rayo took the lead just three minutes after the restart when Sergio Camello converted to make it 1–0, and the hosts looked well-placed to hold on, controlling 53% of possession and generating an expected goals figure of 1.82 compared to Alaves's modest 0.40. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Rayo win as the most likely outcome at 40%, a call that appeared on course to be vindicated.

However, Mariano Diaz equalised for Alaves in the 84th minute to snatch a share of the spoils. Despite Rayo's statistical dominance and the greater volume of attacking threat, they were ultimately unable to hold on, leaving both sides with a point from this second round fixture.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Isi Palazón ⇄ Randy Nteka

17' ⇄

Pelayo Fernández Goal Disallowed - handball

35' 🖵

▮ 45+2'

Nahuel Tenaglia Yellow Card

HT 0–0

Sergio Camello assist: Jorge de Frutos

48' ⚽ 1–0

Pelayo Fernández ⇄ Óscar Valentín

55' ⇄

Fran Pérez ⇄ Álvaro García

55' ⇄

Augusto Batalla ⇄ Dani Cárdenas

60' ⇄

⇄ 62'

Lucas Boyé ⇄ Mariano Diaz

⇄ 62'

⇄ Denis Suarez

⇄ 70'

Jonny Otto ⇄ Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim

Sergio Camello Yellow Card

73' ▮

⇄ 80'

Ville Koski ⇄ Nicolás Valentini

⇄ 80'

Ángel Pérez ⇄ Carles Aleñá

⚽ 1–1 84'

Mariano Diaz

▮ 90+2'

Nicolás Valentini Yellow Card

FT 1–1

Rayo Vallecano

Match Stats

Alaves

47% Ball Possession 53%

0.40 Expected Goals (xG) 1.82

8 Total Shots 13

3 Shots on Goal 2

4 Shots off Goal 8

1 Blocked Shots 3

5 Shots insidebox 8

3 Shots outsidebox 5

9 Corner Kicks 6

Offsides

13 Fouls 10

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 2

296 Total passes 331

237 Passes accurate 270

80% Passes % 82%

0.19 goals_prevented 0.19

Rayo Vallecano

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Sergio Camello F	7.7	92'	1	–	3	16 (12%)	–
13 Augusto Batalla G	7.2	60'	–	–	–	19 (13%)	1
8 Unai López M	7.2	92'	–	–	1	42 (37%)	2
24 Florian Lejeune D	6.9	92'	–	–	–	47 (40%)	2
23 Óscar Valentín M	6.9	37'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	1
11 Randy Nteka M	6.9	75'	–	–	–	14 (10%)	1
19 Jorge de Frutos M	6.6	92'	–	1	–	15 (11%)	3
6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss M	6.5	92'	–	–	–	33 (28%)	–
18 Álvaro García M	6.5	37'	–	–	1	5 (3%)	–
7 Isi Palazón M	6.3	17'	–	–	1	6 (4%)	1
21 Fran Pérez M	6.3	55'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	–
2 Andrei Rațiu D	6.2	92'	–	–	1	25 (21%)	3
1 Dani Cárdenas G	6.2	32'	–	–	–	8 (3%)	–
33 Jozhua Vertrouwd D	6.2	92'	–	–	–	27 (22%)	–
22 Pelayo Fernández D	6.0	55'	–	–	–	22 (18%)	1

Alaves

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Pablo Ibáñez M	7.7	92'	–	–	2	34 (28%)	2
9 Mariano Diaz F	7.2	30'	1	–	1	3 (3%)	–
1 Antonio Sivera G	6.9	92'	–	–	–	21 (11%)	–
7 Ángel Pérez D	6.9	80'	–	–	1	18 (13%)	–
17 Jonny Otto D	6.9	70'	–	–	–	27 (23%)	1
14 Nahuel Tenaglia D	6.9	92'	–	–	–	31 (23%)	2
4 Denis Suarez M	6.9	30'	–	–	–	23 (19%)	1
18 Mikel Rodriguez M	6.9	62'	–	–	–	15 (14%)	1
15 Lucas Boyé F	6.7	62'	–	–	1	12 (9%)	3
3 Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim D	6.6	22'	–	–	–	15 (15%)	–
8 Antonio Blanco M	6.6	92'	–	–	–	50 (41%)	3
21 Abderrahman Rebbach D	6.5	92'	–	–	1	30 (26%)	–
2 Nicolás Valentini D	6.3	12'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
10 Carles Aleñá M	6.3	12'	–	–	–	8 (8%)	1
16 Ville Koski D	6.3	80'	–	–	–	29 (25%)	1
11 Toni Martínez F	6.2	92'	–	–	4	11 (8%)	1

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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Nuestra inclinación

Rayo Vallecano o empate

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.2%

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

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Rayo Vallecano

DWLWL

Alaves

DLLWW

Last 3 meetings Rayo Vallecano · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga clash, Rayo Vallecano faces Alaves. Rayo Vallecano has shown a solid attacking form, averaging 1.6 goals per game last season, while Alaves struggled defensively, conceding 1.8 goals per match. Both teams will look to capitalize on set pieces, as Rayo was particularly effective in this area, scoring 15 goals from corners last season. The match could hinge on Rayo's ability to maintain possession, as they averaged 53% possession in their home games, allowing them to control the tempo. Alaves will need to tighten their defense to avoid being overwhelmed.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

40%

10%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

30%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Alaves goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	8	6	2	1
1	8	14	8	3	1
2	7	8	5	2	1
3	3	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Rayo Vallecano goals · most likely 1–1 (14.2%)

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Players in form

Rayo Vallecano

Sergio Camello 7 gls

Alaves

L. Boyé 4 gls

M. Díaz 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

31%

Away Win

30%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

31%

Away Win

30%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

53% Home (No Draw) 47% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

18% Home Win by 2+ 15% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Home Scores More 33% Away Scores More 30% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.9%	7.7%	5.9%	2.5%	0.8%
1	8.2%	14.2%	8.0%	3.4%	1.1%
2	6.7%	8.5%	5.4%	2.3%	0.7%
3	3.0%	3.8%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

39%

34%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

50%

1.5

50%

77%

2.5

23%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Rayo Vallecano	Draw	Alaves
Rayo Vallecano	18.4%	3.8%	1.8%
Draw	17.0%	18.8%	13.6%
Alaves	2.7%	5.0%	19.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

82%

1.5

18%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves

3 Rayo Vallecano Wins

0 Draws

0 Alaves Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
23 May 2026	Alaves	1 - 2	Rayo Vallecano
26 Oct 2025	Rayo Vallecano	1 - 0	Alaves
29 Mar 2025	Alaves	0 - 2	Rayo Vallecano

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Rayo Vallecano — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Osasuna	D	1 - 1
15 Sep	H Espanyol	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 1
05 Sep	H Racing Santander	W	3 - 2
31 Aug	A Barcelona	L	5 - 2

Alaves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Athletic Club	D	0 - 0
15 Sep	H Valencia	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Racing Santander	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Osasuna	W	5 - 2
28 Aug	H Villarreal	W	1 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Alaves

Formation: 5-3-2 Coach: Quique Sanchez Flores

1 Sivera

21 Rebbach

17 Otto

16 Koski

14 Tenaglia

7 Pérez

18 Rodriguez

8 Blanco

19 Ibáñez

11 Martínez

15 Boyé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Antonio Sivera	G
7	Ángel Pérez	D
14	Nahuel Tenaglia	D
16	Ville Koski	D
17	Jonny Otto	D
21	Abderrahman Rebbach	D
19	Pablo Ibáñez	M
8	Antonio Blanco	M
18	Mikel Rodriguez	M
15	Lucas Boyé	F
11	Toni Martínez	F

Substitutes

4	Denis Suárez	M
9	Mariano Díaz	F
13	Adrián Rodríguez	G
3	Youssef Enriquez	D
27	Xanet Olaiz	D
2	Nicolás Valentini	D
12	Hugo Novoa	F
23	Carlos Benavídez	M
10	Carles Aleñá	M
22	Miguel Rodríguez	F
6	Ander Guevara	M
20	Aitor Mañas	F

Rayo Vallecano

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Benat San Jose

13 Batalla

33 Vertrouwd

22 Fernández

24 Lejeune

2 Rațiu

6 Ciss

21 Pérez

8 López

7 Palazón

19 Frutos

10 Camello

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	Augusto Batalla	G
2	Andrei Rațiu	D
24	Florian Lejeune	D
22	Pelayo Fernández	D
33	Jozhua Vertrouwd	D
6	Pathé Ismaël Ciss	M
19	Jorge de Frutos	M
7	Isi Palazón	M
8	Unai López	M
21	Fran Pérez	M
10	Sergio Camello	F

Substitutes

11	Randy Nteka	M
23	Óscar Valentín	M
18	Álvaro García	M
1	Dani Cárdenas	G
20	Iván Balliu	D
27	Sergio Lozano	D
26	Marco de las Sias	D
14	Giorgi Tsitaishvili	F
4	Pedro Díaz	M
34	Ivan Alonso Martin	D
9	Alemão	F