Racing Santander vs Villarreal Predicción

La Liga · Regular Season - 1

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Villarreal

Away

Llamada IA Villarreal o empate

26%

28%

46%

Victoria local Empate Victoria visitante

Predicción Racing Santander vs Villarreal: Sportiko le da a Racing Santander un 26% de probabilidad de ganar, a Villarreal un 46% y al empate un 28%. Última actualización: 16 Aug 2026, 17:00.

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Match Report

Racing Santander and Villarreal played out a breathless 2–2 draw in La Liga, with all four goals arriving before half-time. Andrés Martín opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 21st minute, before an unnamed Racing player levelled with a normal goal in the 34th minute. The match then erupted in the final moments of the first half, with Pape Gueye putting Villarreal ahead on 45 minutes, only for Nicolas Pépé to restore parity just a minute later, ensuring the teams went in level at the break.

The second half was a far more subdued affair despite a flurry of substitutions from both sides. Racing enjoyed 59% possession and registered seven shots on goal, yet Villarreal's expected goals figure of 2.01 — nearly double Racing's 0.87 — reflected the visitors' greater threat throughout. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Villarreal win as the most likely outcome at 46%, though the visitors ultimately could not convert their statistical superiority into three points.

Five yellow cards were distributed across the second period, adding ill-tempered colour to a match that had already delivered plenty of drama. The point leaves both sides with work to do as the season gets underway.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Pedro Felipe ⇄ Manu Hernando

16' ⇄

Andrés Martín Penalty

21' ⚽ 1–0

34' ⚽ 2–0

⚽ 2–1 45'

Pape Gueye assist: Alberto Moleiro

⚽ 2–2 45+1'

Nicolas Pépé assist: Georges Mikautadze

Gustavo Puerta Yellow Card

45+4' ▮

HT 2–2

▮ 48'

Juan Foyth Yellow Card

⇄ 56'

Santi Comesaña ⇄ Gerard Moreno

⇄ 56'

Alberto Moleiro ⇄ Tajon Buchanan

⇄ 56'

Ayoze Pérez ⇄ Carlos Maciá

Yellow Card

62' ▮

Asier Villalibre ⇄ Yassir Zabiri

69' ⇄

⇄ Maguette Gueye

69' ⇄

▮ 73'

Pape Gueye Yellow Card

Pablo Ramón Yellow Card

75' ▮

⇄ 77'

Nicolas Pépé ⇄ Ilias Akhomach

Pablo Ramón ⇄ Facundo González

77' ⇄

Sergio Canales ⇄ Diego Díaz

77' ⇄

▮ 87'

Santiago Mouriño Yellow Card

⇄ 88'

Santiago Mouriño ⇄ Alexander Freeman

▮ 90+3'

Carlos Romero Yellow Card

FT 2–2

Racing Santander

Match Stats

Villarreal

41% Ball Possession 59%

2.01 Expected Goals (xG) 0.87

17 Total Shots 12

3 Shots on Goal 7

6 Shots off Goal 3

8 Blocked Shots 2

9 Shots insidebox 7

8 Shots outsidebox 5

6 Corner Kicks 10

1 Offsides 3

14 Fouls 13

2 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

5 Goalkeeper Saves 3

374 Total passes 536

310 Passes accurate 479

83% Passes % 89%

-0.69 goals_prevented -0.69

Racing Santander

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Iñigo Vicente M	7.9	92'	–	–	–	64 (52%)	3
8 Gustavo Puerta M	7.2	92'	–	–	–	63 (61%)	1
36 Sergio Martinez M	7.2	69'	1	–	1	22 (17%)	1
11 Andrés Martín M	7.2	92'	1	–	4	28 (19%)	3
4 Manu Hernando D	7.2	76'	–	–	1	15 (12%)	–
17 Jorge Salinas D	6.9	92'	–	–	–	37 (29%)	4
14 Maguette Gueye M	6.9	23'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
5 Pablo Ramón D	6.7	77'	–	–	–	31 (29%)	3
34 Diego Díaz M	6.7	15'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
20 Sergio Canales M	6.6	77'	–	–	1	40 (35%)	1
2 Alvaro Mantilla D	6.5	92'	–	–	1	22 (17%)	2
22 Pedro Felipe D	6.3	16'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
21 Yassir Zabiri F	6.3	23'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
13 Julen Agirrezabala G	6.3	92'	–	–	–	20 (16%)	–
16 Facundo González D	6.3	15'	–	–	–	1	1
12 Asier Villalibre F	6.2	69'	–	–	1	9 (5%)	–

Villarreal

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Nicolas Pépé M	7.9	77'	1	–	2	38 (33%)	1
18 Pape Gueye M	7.9	92'	1	–	1	56 (47%)	1
20 Carlos Romero D	7.3	92'	–	–	1	53 (50%)	3
8 Juan Foyth D	7.0	92'	–	–	–	77 (70%)	1
12 Renato Veiga D	6.9	92'	–	–	–	80 (75%)	–
7 Gerard Moreno F	6.9	36'	–	–	–	20 (16%)	1
26 Carlos Maciá M	6.9	36'	–	–	–	26 (25%)	3
1 Luiz Júnior G	6.6	92'	–	–	–	20 (18%)	–
15 Santiago Mouriño D	6.6	88'	–	–	1	53 (44%)	5
10 Alberto Moleiro M	6.6	56'	–	1	–	27 (26%)	–
22 Ayoze Pérez F	6.6	56'	–	–	1	7 (7%)	2
14 Santi Comesaña M	6.5	56'	–	–	–	29 (26%)	4
9 Georges Mikautadze F	6.5	92'	–	1	3	28 (25%)	–
11 Ilias Akhomach F	6.5	15'	–	–	–	9 (6%)	1
17 Tajon Buchanan F	6.2	36'	–	–	1	11 (9%)	1
3 Alexander Freeman D	—	4'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–

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Confidence Low (46%)

At a glance

Nuestra inclinación

Villarreal o empate

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.7%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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Racing Santander

LLWLW

Villarreal

WWLLL

Last 3 meetings Racing Santander · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

Racing Santander will face Villarreal in what promises to be an intriguing La Liga clash. Villarreal, typically a strong contender, boasts a more robust squad depth and attacking options, which could prove decisive. Santander's defensive organization will be tested against Villarreal's dynamic forwards. Recent form indicates that both teams may struggle for consistency, making early goal-scoring crucial. Expect a tightly contested match where tactical discipline will be key for Santander to secure a positive result.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

26%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

46%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Villarreal goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	11	10	5	2	1
1	6	14	9	5	2	1
2	4	6	5	2	1
3	1	2	2	1
4
5

↑ Racing Santander goals · most likely 1–1 (13.7%)

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Players in form

Racing Santander

M. Zabiri 6 gls

Villarreal

P. Gueye 3 gls

Alberto Moleiro 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

46%

Draw

28%

Home Win

26%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

46%

Draw

28%

Home Win

26%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

68% Away (No Draw) 32% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

26% Away Win by 2+ 9% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

49% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals 23% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Exact Goals

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.4%	10.7%	9.6%	5.0%	1.9%
1	6.2%	13.7%	9.5%	4.9%	1.9%
2	3.9%	6.0%	4.7%	2.4%	1.0%
3	1.3%	2.0%	1.6%	0.8%	0.3%
4	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

39%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

29%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Racing Santander	Draw	Villarreal
Racing Santander	10.7%	3.6%	2.1%
Draw	10.9%	18.6%	18.9%
Villarreal	1.7%	4.5%	29.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

37%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Racing Santander vs Villarreal

1 Racing Santander Wins

2 Draws

0 Villarreal Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
15 Apr 2012	Villarreal	1 - 1	Racing Santander
03 Dec 2011	Racing Santander	1 - 0	Villarreal
27 Feb 2011	Racing Santander	2 - 2	Villarreal

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Racing Santander — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Celta Vigo	L	5 - 0
16 Sep	A Barcelona	L	7 - 2
12 Sep	H Alaves	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Rayo Vallecano	L	3 - 2
28 Aug	H Elche	W	3 - 2

Villarreal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Levante	W	3 - 1
17 Sep	A Malaga	W	1 - 3
14 Sep	H Real Betis	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Borussia Dortmund	L	3 - 2
05 Sep	H Deportivo La Coruna	L	2 - 3

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Villarreal

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Inigo Perez

1 Júnior

20 Romero

12 Veiga

8 Foyth

15 Mouriño

10 Moleiro

18 Gueye

14 Comesaña

19 Pépé

9 Mikautadze

22 Pérez

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Luiz Júnior	G
15	Santiago Mouriño	D
8	Juan Foyth	D
12	Renato Veiga	D
20	Carlos Romero	D
19	Nicolas Pépé	M
14	Santi Comesaña	M
18	Pape Gueye	M
10	Alberto Moleiro	M
22	Ayoze Pérez	F
9	Georges Mikautadze	F

Substitutes

26	Carlos Maciá	M
17	Tajon Buchanan	F
7	Gerard Moreno	F
25	Péter Gulácsi	G
6	Pau Navarro	D
5	Willy Kambwala	D
3	Alexander Freeman	D
23	Sergi Cardona	D
2	Logan Costa	D
30	Cheikh Tidiane Thiam	M
11	Ilias Akhomach	F
21	Tani Oluwaseyi	F