France vs Sweden Predicción

World Cup · Round of 32

Post on X

Sweden

Away

Llamada IA France gana o empata

69%

23%

Victoria local Empate Victoria visitante

Predicción France vs Sweden: Sportiko le da a France un 69% de probabilidad de ganar, a Sweden un 8% y al empate un 23%. Última actualización: 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Menos de 3.5 goles 78%
2nd Half Over 0.5 73%
Más de 1.5 goles 71%

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Match Report

France advanced to the next round of the World Cup with a commanding 3–0 victory over Sweden, a result that our pre-match AI model had flagged as the most likely outcome at 69%.

The opening half was defined by a moment of controversy, as Mbappé saw a 21st-minute strike ruled out for offside by VAR. He made no mistake just before the break, however, converting to send France into half-time with a slender lead. Bradley Barcola extended the advantage early in the second half, finishing calmly eight minutes after the restart to effectively settle the tie.

Mbappé completed his brace on 74 minutes to put the result beyond any doubt before being withdrawn a minute later, with France already in full control. The statistics underlined their dominance throughout — 62% possession, 12 shots on target to Sweden's two, and an expected goals figure of 3.16 against just 0.56 for the Swedes. Sweden rarely threatened and managed only six total attempts across the ninety minutes, making this a straightforward progression for the French.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Kylian Mbappé Goal Disallowed - offside

21' 🖵

Kylian Mbappé assist: Ousmane Dembélé

45' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

Bradley Barcola assist: Michael Olise

53' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 66'

Elliot Stroud ⇄ Taha Abdi Ali

⇄ 66'

Lucas Bergvall ⇄ Besfort Zeneli

Kylian Mbappé assist: Michael Olise

74' ⚽ 3–0

Jules Koundé ⇄ Malo Gusto

75' ⇄

Ousmane Dembélé ⇄ Désiré Doué

75' ⇄

Lucas Digne ⇄ Theo Hernández

78' ⇄

⇄ 82'

Daniel Svensson ⇄ Mattias Svanberg

⇄ 82'

Yasin Ayari ⇄ Benjamin Nygren

Kylian Mbappé ⇄ Jean-Philippe Mateta

85' ⇄

Michael Olise ⇄ Rayan Cherki

85' ⇄

⇄ 89'

Alexander Isak ⇄ Gustaf Nilsson

FT 3–0

France

Match Stats

Sweden

62% Ball Possession 38%

3.16 Expected Goals (xG) 0.56

25 Total Shots 6

12 Shots on Goal 2

9 Shots off Goal 4

4 Blocked Shots 0

16 Shots insidebox 5

9 Shots outsidebox 1

9 Corner Kicks 1

3 Offsides 1

13 Fouls 10

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 9

551 Total passes 343

485 Passes accurate 271

88% Passes % 79%

1.14 goals_prevented 1.14

France

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Kylian Mbappé F	9.6	85'	2	–	5	41 (34%)	–
11 Michael Olise M	8.9	85'	–	2	5	69 (63%)	1
12 Bradley Barcola M	7.9	93'	1	–	3	30 (26%)	1
8 Aurélien Tchouaméni M	7.7	93'	–	–	1	67 (62%)	3
7 Ousmane Dembélé M	7.5	75'	–	1	1	39 (35%)	1
16 Mike Maignan G	7.2	93'	–	–	–	24 (16%)	–
17 William Saliba D	7.2	93'	–	–	–	53 (50%)	1
5 Jules Koundé D	7.0	75'	–	–	–	40 (34%)	2
3 Lucas Digne D	7.0	78'	–	–	1	41 (31%)	1
19 Theo Hernández D	6.9	15'	–	–	–	11 (11%)	–
2 Malo Gusto D	6.7	18'	–	–	–	12 (12%)	1
4 Dayot Upamecano D	6.6	93'	–	–	1	47 (43%)	–
14 Adrien Rabiot M	6.6	93'	–	–	2	68 (62%)	1
20 Désiré Doué F	6.6	18'	–	–	1	6 (4%)	1
24 Rayan Cherki M	6.3	8'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
22 Jean-Philippe Mateta F	6.2	8'	–	–	1	1 (1%)	–

Sweden

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Jacob Widell Zetterström G	8.7	93'	–	–	–	24 (9%)	–
17 Viktor Gyökeres F	6.9	93'	–	–	1	13 (5%)	1
18 Yasin Ayari M	6.7	82'	–	–	–	26 (25%)	–
10 Benjamin Nygren F	6.7	11'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	1
19 Mattias Svanberg M	6.7	11'	–	–	1	5 (5%)	–
7 Lucas Bergvall M	6.6	66'	–	–	1	27 (23%)	1
2 Gustaf Lagerbielke D	6.5	93'	–	–	–	53 (41%)	2
3 Victor Lindelöf D	6.5	93'	–	–	–	44 (42%)	1
26 Taha Abdi Ali M	6.5	27'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	–
11 Anthony Elanga M	6.5	93'	–	–	–	33 (27%)	–
5 Gabriel Gudmundsson D	6.3	93'	–	–	–	35 (27%)	2
9 Alexander Isak F	6.3	89'	–	–	2	13 (10%)	1
24 Elliot Stroud M	6.3	66'	–	–	1	12 (7%)	1
22 Besfort Zeneli M	6.3	27'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	1
8 Daniel Svensson D	5.9	82'	–	–	–	23 (20%)	3
25 Gustaf Nilsson F	—	4'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–

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Confidence Medium (69%)

At a glance

Nuestra inclinación

France gana o empata

Most likely score

2:0 · 16.3%

Both teams to score

36%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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France

LLWWW

Sweden

LDLW

Match summary

In this World Cup clash, France will face Sweden in a highly anticipated encounter. France boasts a strong attacking lineup, highlighted by their depth in talent and recent form, averaging 2.5 goals per match in qualifiers. Conversely, Sweden's defensive organization has been solid, conceding only 0.8 goals per match in their last five outings. Both teams will need to adapt quickly to the neutral environment, making tactical flexibility crucial. Expect a battle of styles, with France pushing for offensive dominance while Sweden aims to capitalize on counter-attacks.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

69%

45%

Draw

23%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Sweden goals →

	0	1	2
0	10	3	1
1	16	10	2
2	16	8	2
3	10	5	1
4	5	3	1
5	2	1

↑ France goals · most likely 2–0 (16.3%)

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Players in form

France

Kylian Mbappé 10 gls

O. Dembélé 6 gls

Sweden

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

23%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS No 36% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

23%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

89% Home (No Draw) 11% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

43% Home Win by 2+ 2% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

69% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 8% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS No 36% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

19%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.1%	3.5%	1.2%	0.2%	0.0%
1	15.9%	10.0%	2.3%	0.4%	0.1%
2	16.3%	8.5%	2.2%	0.4%	0.1%
3	10.4%	5.4%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%
4	5.0%	2.6%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

66%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

33%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	France	Draw	Sweden
France	46.0%	2.6%	0.4%
Draw	22.9%	15.6%	3.9%
Sweden	1.8%	2.5%	4.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

44%

1.5

56%

71%

2.5

29%

89%

3.5

12%

Home Exact Goals

15%

29%

27%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

79%

1.5

21%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

59%

31%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

75%

0.5

25%

97%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: France vs Sweden

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

France — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Jul	H England	L	4 - 6
14 Jul	H Spain	L	0 - 2
09 Jul	H Morocco	W	2 - 0
04 Jul	A Paraguay	W	0 - 1
30 Jun	H Sweden	W	3 - 0

Sweden — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
30 Jun	A France	L	3 - 0
25 Jun	A Japan	D	1 - 1
20 Jun	A Netherlands	L	5 - 1
15 Jun	H Tunisia	W	5 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

France

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Didier Deschamps

16 Maignan

3 Digne

17 Saliba

4 Upamecano

5 Koundé

14 Rabiot

8 Tchouaméni

12 Barcola

11 Olise

7 Dembélé

10 Mbappé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	Mike Maignan	G
5	Jules Koundé	D
4	Dayot Upamecano	D
17	William Saliba	D
3	Lucas Digne	D
8	Aurélien Tchouaméni	M
14	Adrien Rabiot	M
7	Ousmane Dembélé	M
11	Michael Olise	M
12	Bradley Barcola	M
10	Kylian Mbappé	F

Substitutes

23	Robin Risser	G
1	Brice Samba	G
2	Malo Gusto	D
21	Lucas Hernández	D
26	Maxence Lacroix	D
15	Ibrahima Konaté	D
19	Theo Hernández	D
6	Manu Koné	M
24	Rayan Cherki	M
25	Maghnes Akliouche	M
18	Warren Zaïre-Emery	M
13	N'Golo Kanté	M
22	Jean-Philippe Mateta	F
20	Désiré Doué	F
9	Marcus Thuram	F

Sweden

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Graham Potter

1 Zetterström

5 Gudmundsson

3 Lindelöf

2 Lagerbielke

8 Svensson

24 Stroud

18 Ayari

7 Bergvall

11 Elanga

9 Isak

17 Gyökeres

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Jacob Widell Zetterström	G
8	Daniel Svensson	D
2	Gustaf Lagerbielke	D
3	Victor Lindelöf	D
5	Gabriel Gudmundsson	D
11	Anthony Elanga	M
7	Lucas Bergvall	M
18	Yasin Ayari	M
24	Elliot Stroud	M
17	Viktor Gyökeres	F
9	Alexander Isak	F

Substitutes

22	Besfort Zeneli	M
26	Taha Abdi Ali	M
23	Kristoffer Nordfeldt	G
12	Viktor Johansson	G
14	Hjalmar Ekdal	D
20	Eric Smith	D
15	Carl Starfelt	D
6	Herman Johansson	M
13	Ken Sema	M
16	Jesper Karlström	M
19	Mattias Svanberg	M
10	Benjamin Nygren	F
25	Gustaf Nilsson	F
21	Alexander Bernhardsson	F