Burnley vs Aston Villa Prognose

Premier League · Regular Season - 36

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Aston Villa

Away

Turf Moor, Burnley

KI-Tipp Aston Villa gewinnt oder unentschieden

11%

24%

65%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Burnley vs. Aston Villa Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Burnley eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 11%, für Aston Villa 65% und für ein Unentschieden 24%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Burnley earned a hard-fought point against Aston Villa in a lively Premier League encounter at Turf Moor. Jaidon Anthony gave the hosts an early lead in the eighth minute, before a VAR cancellation denied Ollie Watkins an equaliser late in the first half. Ross Barkley then struck in the 42nd minute to level matters heading into the break.

The second half produced a frantic ten-minute spell that ultimately decided the outcome. Watkins finally got his goal in the 56th minute to put Villa ahead, only for Zian Flemming to equalise two minutes later — the Dutch midfielder picking up a yellow card shortly after his effort. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Villa win as most likely at 65%, a call that did not materialise.

Despite Villa dominating possession at 66% and generating eight corner kicks to Burnley's two, the xG figures told a closer story, with Burnley edging the metric at 1.79 to 1.44. Both managers turned to their benches heavily in the final quarter, but neither side could find a winner, leaving the points shared.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Jaidon Anthony

8' ⚽ 1–0

🖵 40'

Ollie Watkins Goal cancelled

⚽ 1–1 42'

Ross Barkley assist: John McGinn

HT 1–1

▮ 49'

Tyrone Mings Yellow Card

⚽ 1–2 56'

Ollie Watkins assist: Emiliano Martínez

Zian Flemming assist: Hannibal Mejbri

58' ⚽ 2–2

Zian Flemming Yellow Card

60' ▮

Hannibal Mejbri ⇄ Lyle Foster

69' ⇄

⇄ 74'

Ian Maatsen ⇄ Lucas Digne

⇄ 74'

Victor Lindelöf ⇄ Emiliano Buendía

Lesley Ugochukwu ⇄ Josh Laurent

79' ⇄

Zian Flemming ⇄ Zeki Amdouni

79' ⇄

⇄ 80'

Ross Barkley ⇄ Douglas Luiz

⇄ 80'

Matty Cash ⇄ Lamare Bogarde

⇄ 85'

John McGinn ⇄ Leon Bailey

Florentino Luís ⇄ James Ward-Prowse

87' ⇄

Jaidon Anthony ⇄ Jacob Bruun Larsen

87' ⇄

FT 2–2

Burnley

Match Stats

Aston Villa

34% Ball Possession 66%

1.79 Expected Goals (xG) 1.44

15 Total Shots 18

6 Shots on Goal 7

4 Shots off Goal 6

5 Blocked Shots 5

7 Shots insidebox 10

8 Shots outsidebox 8

2 Corner Kicks 8

1 Offsides 1

18 Fouls 8

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

5 Goalkeeper Saves 4

260 Total passes 528

192 Passes accurate 456

74% Passes % 86%

-0.22 goals_prevented -0.22

Burnley

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
28 Hannibal Mejbri M	7.3	69'	–	1	–	17 (13%)	2
8 Lesley Ugochukwu M	7.2	79'	–	–	1	21 (15%)	2
2 Kyle Walker D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	35 (27%)	4
13 Max Weiss G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	24 (9%)	–
19 Zian Flemming F	7.0	79'	1	–	3	8 (4%)	4
17 Loum Tchaouna M	7.0	90'	–	–	1	16 (12%)	3
11 Jaidon Anthony M	6.7	87'	1	–	2	26 (19%)	2
7 Jacob Bruun Larsen F	6.7	10'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
23 Lucas Pires D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	19 (18%)	1
20 James Ward-Prowse M	6.6	10'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
6 Axel Tuanzebe D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	24 (21%)	1
5 Maxime Estève D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	–
16 Florentino Luís M	6.3	87'	–	–	1	32 (27%)	1
29 Josh Laurent M	6.3	11'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	1
9 Lyle Foster F	6.2	21'	–	–	–	5	–
25 Zeki Amdouni F	6.2	11'	–	–	2	1 (1%)	–

Aston Villa

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Youri Tielemans M	7.7	90'	–	–	2	66 (56%)	2
12 Lucas Digne D	7.3	16'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	1
4 Ezri Konsa D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	82 (82%)	1
11 Ollie Watkins F	7.2	90'	1	–	1	16 (10%)	–
21 Douglas Luiz M	7.0	10'	–	–	1	7 (6%)	1
10 Emiliano Buendía M	7.0	16'	–	–	1	8 (8%)	–
6 Ross Barkley M	6.9	80'	1	–	4	35 (31%)	1
7 John McGinn M	6.7	85'	–	1	2	35 (24%)	–
23 Emiliano Martínez G	6.7	90'	–	1	–	39 (34%)	–
26 Lamare Bogarde M	6.7	10'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	1
31 Leon Bailey F	6.6	12'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	1
3 Victor Lindelöf M	6.5	74'	–	–	–	41 (36%)	–
22 Ian Maatsen D	6.5	74'	–	–	1	22 (18%)	3
5 Tyrone Mings D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	79 (70%)	–
27 Morgan Rogers M	5.6	90'	–	–	1	39 (26%)	2
2 Matty Cash D	5.6	80'	–	–	–	37 (35%)	–

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Confidence Medium (57%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

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Burnley

DLDLD

Aston Villa

WWLWD

Last 3 meetings Burnley · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

In the upcoming Premier League clash on May 9, 2026, Burnley will host Aston Villa at Turf Moor. Burnley has struggled in recent seasons, particularly in defense, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game this season, which could be a significant concern against a Villa side that boasts a potent attack, averaging 2.1 goals per match. Conversely, Villa's away form has been solid, with a 60% win rate in their last ten away fixtures. Key players to watch will be Burnley's top scorer, who has netted 12 goals this season, and Villa's playmaker, contributing to over 10 assists. This match could be crucial for both teams' aspirations, with Burnley fighting to avoid relegation and Villa aiming for European qualification.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Aston Villa goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	19	16	9	4	1
1	6	10	8	5	2	1
2	2	3	2	1
3
4
5

↑ Burnley goals · most likely 0–1 (18.9%)

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Head to Head: Burnley vs Aston Villa

0 Burnley Wins

0 Draws

3 Aston Villa Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
05 Oct 2025	Aston Villa	2 - 1	Burnley
30 Dec 2023	Aston Villa	3 - 2	Burnley
27 Aug 2023	Burnley	1 - 3	Aston Villa

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Burnley — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Derby	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A Swansea	L	3 - 1
08 Sep	A Wrexham	D	1 - 1
05 Sep	H Bristol City	L	1 - 2
02 Sep	H Middlesbrough	D	1 - 1

Aston Villa — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Tottenham	W	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Coventry	W	1 - 3
12 Sep	H Nottingham Forest	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Club Brugge KV	W	2 - 3
05 Sep	A Hull City	D	0 - 0

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2