Aston Villa vs Sunderland Prognose

Premier League · Regular Season - 33

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Sunderland

Away

Villa Park, Birmingham

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59%

24%

17%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Aston Villa vs. Sunderland Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Aston Villa eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 59%, für Sunderland 17% und für ein Unentschieden 24%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 27 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Aston Villa survived a dramatic late fightback to claim a 4–3 victory over Sunderland in a seven-goal Premier League thriller. Ollie Watkins put the hosts ahead inside two minutes, only for Chris Rigg to level shortly after. Watkins struck again on 36 minutes to restore Villa's advantage heading into the break, before Morgan Rogers added a third just seconds into the second half to seemingly put the game beyond Sunderland.

The visitors, however, refused to capitulate. Goals from Trai Hume and Wilson Isidor in the 86th and 87th minutes dragged Sunderland back to within one, before Tammy Abraham netted in stoppage time to set up a nervy finale. Despite the late drama, Villa held on, with the scoreline perhaps flattering the visitors given the hosts' expected goals figure of 2.84 compared to Sunderland's 1.73. Both sides finished with an equal seven shots on target across a breathless contest. A flurry of yellow cards in the closing stages reflected the tension.

The result was in line with pre-match expectations — our AI model had rated an Aston Villa win as the most likely outcome at 59%, a call that proved correct.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Ollie Watkins assist: John McGinn

2' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 9'

Chris Rigg assist: Noah Sadiki

Ollie Watkins assist: Ian Maatsen

36' ⚽ 2–1

HT 2–1

Morgan Rogers assist: Ollie Watkins

46' ⚽ 3–1

⇄ 63'

Chris Rigg ⇄ Chemsdine Talbi

⇄ 63'

Omar Alderete

⇄ 63'

Reinildo Mandava ⇄ Trai Hume

▮ 66'

Noah Sadiki Yellow Card

Ian Maatsen ⇄ Lucas Digne

70' ⇄

Ross Barkley ⇄ Emiliano Buendía

70' ⇄

Ollie Watkins ⇄ Tammy Abraham

80' ⇄

John McGinn

80' ⇄

⇄ 84'

B. Brobbey ⇄ Wilson Isidor

⚽ 3–2 86'

Trai Hume

⚽ 3–3 87'

Wilson Isidor assist: Enzo Le Fée

Tammy Abraham assist: Lucas Digne

90' ⚽ 4–3

▮ 90+5'

Nordi Mukiele Yellow Card

Amadou Onana Yellow Card

90+8' ▮

▮ 90+8'

Yellow Card

FT 4–3

Aston Villa

Match Stats

Sunderland

50% Ball Possession 50%

2.84 Expected Goals (xG) 1.73

15 Total Shots 10

7 Shots on Goal 7

5 Shots off Goal 2

3 Blocked Shots 1

10 Shots insidebox 8

5 Shots outsidebox 2

4 Corner Kicks 5

0 Offsides 3

11 Fouls 11

1 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

4 Goalkeeper Saves 3

403 Total passes 406

341 Passes accurate 340

85% Passes % 84%

-0.44 goals_prevented -0.44

Aston Villa

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
27 Morgan Rogers M	9.0	90'	1	–	1	31 (25%)	–
11 Ollie Watkins F	8.6	80'	2	1	3	12 (8%)	1
7 John McGinn M	7.7	80'	–	1	–	23 (18%)	–
8 Youri Tielemans M	7.5	90'	–	–	–	53 (51%)	3
18 Tammy Abraham F	7.5	10'	1	–	1	2 (1%)	1
23 Emiliano Martínez G	7.0	90'	–	–	–	52 (34%)	–
24 Amadou Onana M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	39 (34%)	2
12 Lucas Digne D	6.9	20'	–	1	–	6 (5%)	–
22 Ian Maatsen D	6.7	70'	–	1	–	24 (20%)	–
6 Ross Barkley M	6.5	70'	–	–	1	16 (15%)	–
10 Emiliano Buendía M	6.5	20'	–	–	3	6 (4%)	–
4 Ezri Konsa D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	41 (40%)	1
2 Matty Cash D	6.2	90'	–	–	1	27 (26%)	2
5 Tyrone Mings D	6.2	90'	–	–	1	68 (59%)	–
19 Jadon Sancho F	5.9	10'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	–

Sunderland

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
32 Trai Hume D	8.0	27'	1	–	1	11 (10%)	2
18 Wilson Isidor F	7.7	14'	1	–	1	1 (1%)	–
11 Chris Rigg M	7.3	63'	1	–	2	20 (16%)	1
5 Daniel Ballard D	7.3	27'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	1
28 Enzo Le Fée M	6.9	90'	–	1	2	28 (25%)	3
34 Granit Xhaka M	6.5	90'	–	–	1	71 (65%)	–
7 Chemsdine Talbi F	6.5	27'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–
13 Luke O'Nien D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	59 (53%)	1
19 Habib Diarra M	6.3	90'	–	–	1	40 (33%)	–
27 Noah Sadiki M	6.3	90'	–	1	–	29 (25%)	4
9 B. Brobbey F	6.2	84'	–	–	1	6 (3%)	–
15 Omar Alderete D	6.0	63'	–	–	–	33 (25%)	1
22 R. Roefs G	5.9	90'	–	–	–	24 (15%)	–
20 Nordi Mukiele D	5.9	90'	–	–	–	37 (29%)	1
17 Reinildo Mandava D	5.9	63'	–	–	–	25 (20%)	–

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Confidence Medium (60%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

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Aston Villa

WWLWD

Sunderland

LWLWD

Last 3 meetings Aston Villa · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

Aston Villa will host Sunderland in a crucial Premier League clash on April 18, 2026. Villa has shown strong home form, boasting a win rate of 65% at Villa Park this season, while Sunderland struggles with a 35% away win rate. Key players for Villa, particularly their top scorer, have been pivotal in maintaining offensive pressure, contributing to an average of 2.1 goals per match at home. Sunderland will need to bolster their defense, which has conceded an average of 1.8 goals away, to stand a chance. The matchup suggests Villa will likely dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities, making them favorites for this encounter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Sunderland goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	9	7	2	1
1	15	11	4	1
2	13	9	4	1
3	7	5	2
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Aston Villa goals · most likely 1–0 (14.9%)

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Players in form

Aston Villa

No scorer data.

Sunderland

B. Brobbey 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Aston Villa vs Sunderland

0 Aston Villa Wins

2 Draws

1 Sunderland Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
21 Sep 2025	Sunderland	1 - 1	Aston Villa
02 Jan 2016	Sunderland	3 - 1	Aston Villa
29 Aug 2015	Aston Villa	2 - 2	Sunderland

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Aston Villa — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Tottenham	W	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Coventry	W	1 - 3
12 Sep	H Nottingham Forest	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Club Brugge KV	W	2 - 3
05 Sep	A Hull City	D	0 - 0

Sunderland — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Manchester City	L	5 - 3
16 Sep	H AZ Alkmaar	W	1 - 0
12 Sep	H Arsenal	L	0 - 2
08 Sep	H Hull City	W	1 - 0
05 Sep	A Brentford	D	1 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2