Independiente vs Gimnasia M. Prognose

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 7

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Gimnasia M.

Away

KI-Tipp Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für Independiente

55%

28%

17%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Independiente vs. Gimnasia M. Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Independiente eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 55%, für Gimnasia M. 17% und für ein Unentschieden 28%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 31 Aug 2026, 00:10.

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1st Half Draw or Away 71%

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Timeline

▮ 12'

Luciano Cingolani Yellow Card

Leonardo Godoy Yellow Card

38' ▮

⚽ 0–1 42'

Esteban Fernández assist: Facundo Lencioni

HT 0–1

⚽ 0–2 53'

Facundo Lencioni assist: Esteban Fernández

Josias Palais ⇄ Matías Abaldo

59' ⇄

Maximiliano Gutiérrez ⇄ Chimy Ávila

59' ⇄

⚽ 0–3 60'

Facundo Lencioni assist: Esteban Fernández

⇄ 63'

Luciano Cingolani ⇄ Matías Vargas

⇄ 63'

Esteban Fernández ⇄ Brian Andrada

⇄ 65'

Agustín Modica ⇄ Ignacio Sabatini

Lautaro Millán ⇄ Maxi Meza

77' ⇄

Leonardo Godoy ⇄ Juan Fedorco

77' ⇄

⇄ 79'

Fermin Antonini ⇄ Nahuel Barboza

⇄ 79'

Tomás O'Connor ⇄ Santiago Rodríguez

Facundo Zabala ⇄ Ramiro Martino

87' ⇄

FT 0–3

Independiente

Match Stats

Gimnasia M.

61% Ball Possession 39%

0.66 Expected Goals (xG) 0.29

5 Total Shots 5

3 Shots on Goal 2

1 Shots off Goal 2

1 Blocked Shots 1

4 Shots insidebox 2

1 Shots outsidebox 3

0 Corner Kicks 1

1 Offsides 1

5 Fouls 10

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

0 Goalkeeper Saves 3

285 Total passes 178

225 Passes accurate 128

79% Passes % 72%

0.92 goals_prevented 0.92

Independiente

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Santiago Montiel M	6.9	58'	–	–	–	17 (15%)	–
14 Lautaro Millán M	6.9	58'	–	–	–	27 (21%)	5
28 Maximiliano Gutiérrez F	6.9	58'	–	–	1	11 (4%)	2
24 Josias Palais F	6.9	58'	–	–	2	9 (6%)	1
26 Kevin Lomónaco D	6.7	58'	–	–	–	44 (38%)	1
23 Iván Marcone M	6.7	58'	–	–	–	45 (36%)	–
22 Facundo Zabala D	6.6	58'	–	–	–	38 (27%)	2
35 Juan Miguel Arrayago D	6.3	58'	–	–	–	68 (59%)	1
34 Felipe Tempone F	6.2	58'	–	–	1	13 (8%)	–
29 Leonardo Godoy D	5.9	58'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	–
33 Rodrigo Rey G	5.5	58'	–	–	–	21 (19%)	–

Gimnasia M.

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Cesar Rigamonti G	8.3	58'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	–
30 Esteban Fernández M	8.0	58'	1	1	1	16 (14%)	1
26 Facundo Lencioni M	7.9	58'	1	1	1	23 (13%)	–
2 Diego Mondino D	6.9	58'	–	–	1	19 (15%)	–
21 Fermin Antonini M	6.9	58'	–	–	–	14 (13%)	2
32 Luciano Paredes D	6.7	58'	–	–	–	18 (10%)	3
7 Luciano Cingolani M	6.7	58'	–	–	–	16 (8%)	3
3 Matias Recalde D	6.6	58'	–	–	–	25 (17%)	2
28 Tomás O'Connor M	6.5	58'	–	–	–	25 (18%)	1
4 Ezequiel Muñoz D	6.3	58'	–	–	–	19 (16%)	–
9 Agustín Modica F	6.3	58'	–	–	1	9 (5%)	–

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für Independiente

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

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Independiente

WDWLD

Gimnasia M.

DLDWW

Last 1 meetings Independiente · 0W 1D 0L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

55%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

17%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Gimnasia M. goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	10	7	4	1
1	11	14	6	2
2	9	9	5	1
3	5	5	2	1
4	2	2	1
5	1

↑ Independiente goals · most likely 1–1 (14.1%)

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Players in form

Independiente

G. Ávalos 11 gls

Gimnasia M.

A. Módica 12 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

28%

Away Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

28%

Away Win

17%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

67% Home (No Draw) 33% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

24% Home Win by 2+ 9% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

47% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals 23% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.2%	6.8%	4.1%	1.4%	0.3%
1	11.1%	14.1%	6.1%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.4%	9.2%	4.5%	1.5%	0.4%
3	4.6%	4.6%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.7%	1.7%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

74%

1.5

26%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

39%

34%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

54%

1.5

46%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Independiente	Draw	Gimnasia M.
Independiente	24.1%	3.3%	1.1%
Draw	21.1%	19.2%	9.5%
Gimnasia M.	3.0%	4.9%	13.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

65%

0.5

35%

93%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Independiente vs Gimnasia M.

0 Independiente Wins

1 Draws

0 Gimnasia M. Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
25 Feb 2026	Gimnasia M.	1 - 1	Independiente

Independiente — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Union Santa Fe	W	1 - 2
13 Sep	H San Lorenzo	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	A Central Cordoba de Santiago	W	0 - 1
30 Aug	H Gimnasia M.	L	0 - 3
22 Aug	H Independ. Rivadavia	D	0 - 0

Gimnasia M. — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Deportivo Riestra	D	0 - 0
11 Sep	A Defensa Y Justicia	L	2 - 0
05 Sep	H Boca Juniors	D	2 - 2
30 Aug	A Independiente	W	0 - 3
22 Aug	A Gimnasia L.P.	W	2 - 3

Liga Profesional Argentina Standings

Clausura - Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Instituto Cordoba	10	7	1	2	13	7	+6	22
2	Velez Sarsfield	10	5	5	0	15	9	+6	20
3	Defensa Y Justicia	10	5	3	2	13	11	+2	18
4	Gimnasia M.	10	5	2	3	14	9	+5	17
5	Boca Juniors	10	4	5	1	14	11	+3	17
6	Independiente	10	5	2	3	10	8	+2	17
7	Lanus	10	5	1	4	13	9	+4	16
8	Newells Old Boys	10	4	4	2	11	8	+3	16
9	Union Santa Fe	10	4	1	5	17	16	+1	13
10	San Lorenzo	10	3	2	5	4	8	-4	11
11	Estudiantes L.P.	10	3	1	6	10	11	-1	10
12	Deportivo Riestra	10	2	4	4	8	10	-2	10
13	Platense	10	2	3	5	9	15	-6	9
14	Talleres Cordoba	10	2	2	6	11	17	-6	8
15	Central Cordoba de Santiago	10	2	2	6	7	13	-6	8

Clausura - Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentinos JRS	10	5	3	2	13	9	+4	18
2	Rosario Central	10	5	3	2	11	8	+3	18
3	Independ. Rivadavia	10	5	2	3	14	13	+1	17
4	Gimnasia L.P.	10	5	2	3	15	15	0	17
5	Belgrano Cordoba	10	4	4	2	11	7	+4	16
6	Huracan	10	4	4	2	10	8	+2	16
7	Sarmiento Junin	10	5	1	4	17	16	+1	16
8	River Plate	10	4	1	5	13	12	+1	13
9	Atletico Tucuman	10	3	4	3	7	6	+1	13
10	Tigre	10	3	3	4	9	9	0	12
11	Barracas Central	10	3	3	4	5	7	-2	12
12	Banfield	10	2	3	5	11	16	-5	9
13	Aldosivi	10	2	2	6	12	16	-4	8
14	Racing Club	10	2	2	6	11	16	-5	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	10	1	3	6	5	13	-8	6

Independiente

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Jadson Viera

33 Rey

22 Zabala

35 Arrayago

26 Lomónaco

29 Godoy

7 Montiel

23 Marcone

14 Millán

24 Palais

34 Tempone

28 Gutiérrez

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
33	Rodrigo Rey	G
29	Leonardo Godoy	D
26	Kevin Lomónaco	D
35	Juan Miguel Arrayago	D
22	Facundo Zabala	D
14	Lautaro Millán	M
23	Iván Marcone	M
7	Santiago Montiel	M
28	Maximiliano Gutiérrez	F
34	Felipe Tempone	F
24	Josias Palais	F

Substitutes

77	Santiago Mele	G
39	Ramiro Martino	D
40	Joshua Velárdez	D
13	Juan Fedorco	D
2	Franco Calderón	D
16	Mateo Perez Curci	M
32	David Martínez	M
8	Maxi Meza	F
20	Facundo Cruz	M
19	Matías Abaldo	F
10	Luciano Cabral	M
6	Chimy Ávila	F

Gimnasia M.

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Ariel Broggi

23 Rigamonti

3 Recalde

4 Muñoz

2 Mondino

32 Paredes

28 O'Connor

21 Antonini

7 Cingolani

30 Fernández

26 Lencioni

9 Modica

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Cesar Rigamonti	G
32	Luciano Paredes	D
2	Diego Mondino	D
4	Ezequiel Muñoz	D
3	Matias Recalde	D
21	Fermin Antonini	M
28	Tomás O'Connor	M
26	Facundo Lencioni	M
30	Esteban Fernández	M
7	Luciano Cingolani	M
9	Agustín Modica	F

Substitutes

31	Lautaro Petruchi	G
36	Ismael Cortez	D
16	Germán Guiffrey	D
42	Lautaro Carrera	M
15	Ulises Sánchez	M
33	Brian Andrada	F
5	Nahuel Barboza	M
19	Julian Ceballos	M
17	Ignacio Sabatini	F
8	Matías Vargas	F
35	Valentino Simoni	F
11	Santiago Rodríguez	F