Atletico-MG vs Fluminense Prognose

Serie A · Regular Season - 27

Post on X

Fluminense

Away

KI-Tipp Atletico-MG oder Unentschieden

42%

31%

28%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Atletico-MG vs. Fluminense Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Atletico-MG eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 42%, für Fluminense 28% und für ein Unentschieden 31%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 12 Sep 2026, 20:57.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Heimteam trifft 74%
Über 1,5 Tore 71%
1st Half Draw or Away 71%

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Timeline

Alan Franco Yellow Card

19' ▮

HT 0–0

▮ 52'

Otávio Yellow Card

Reinier assist: Tomás Cuello

61' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 61'

Luciano Acosta ⇄ Hércules

⇄ 61'

Agustín Canobbio ⇄ Kevin Serna

Tomás Cuello

63' ⚽ 2–0

Alan Franco ⇄ Maycon

65' ⇄

Kevin Castaño ⇄ Mamady Cissé

65' ⇄

▮ 69'

Rodrigo Castillo Yellow Card

Tomás Cuello ⇄ Igor Gomes

70' ⇄

Bernard ⇄ Gustavo Scarpa

70' ⇄

⇄ 72'

Otávio ⇄ Ganso

⇄ 72'

Jefferson Savarino ⇄ Riquelme Felipe

Reinier ⇄ Mateo Cassierra

78' ⇄

Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira assist: Mateo Cassierra

81' ⚽ 3–0

⚽ 3–1 90'

Rodrigo Castillo assist: Kevin Serna

⇄ 90+1'

Júlio Fidelis ⇄ Jemmes

FT 3–1

Atletico-MG

Match Stats

Fluminense

48% Ball Possession 52%

15 Total Shots 9

7 Shots on Goal 3

3 Shots off Goal 5

5 Blocked Shots 1

6 Shots insidebox 4

9 Shots outsidebox 5

5 Corner Kicks 2

2 Offsides 0

8 Fouls 11

1 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

2 Goalkeeper Saves 5

495 Total passes 536

433 Passes accurate 473

10 Free Kicks 8

Atletico-MG

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
28 Tomás Cuello M	9.0	70'	1	1	3	22 (19%)	2
19 Reinier F	8.2	78'	1	–	2	35 (31%)	3
40 Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira D	7.5	90'	1	–	2	48 (39%)	1
2 Natanael D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	29 (27%)	4
15 Kevin Castaño M	7.1	65'	–	–	1	58 (55%)	2
7 Fred M	7.0	90'	–	–	2	61 (54%)	1
9 Mateo Cassierra F	7.0	12'	–	1	–	5 (4%)	–
14 Vitor Hugo D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	62 (55%)	–
10 Gustavo Scarpa M	6.9	20'	–	–	1	9 (7%)	–
1 Gabriel Delfim G	6.8	90'	–	–	–	30 (23%)	–
39 Mamady Cissé M	6.6	25'	–	–	–	12 (12%)	–
17 Igor Gomes M	6.6	20'	–	–	1	1 (1%)	–
36 Kauã Pascini D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	46 (38%)	1
21 Alan Franco M	6.5	65'	–	–	1	30 (28%)	–
8 Maycon M	6.4	25'	–	–	–	15 (14%)	–
11 Bernard M	6.3	70'	–	–	2	32 (26%)	1

Fluminense

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Rodrigo Castillo F	7.8	90'	1	–	1	33 (28%)	1
22 Juan Pablo Freytes D	7.0	90'	–	–	1	72 (62%)	–
1 Fábio G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	25 (20%)	–
28 Riquelme Felipe F	6.8	18'	–	–	1	20 (20%)	–
13 Guilherme Arana D	6.7	90'	–	–	2	43 (39%)	3
21 Igor Rabello D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	55 (48%)	1
90 Kevin Serna F	6.6	29'	–	1	–	15 (14%)	–
16 Nonato M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	59 (54%)	1
11 Jefferson Savarino M	6.4	72'	–	–	3	30 (27%)	–
94 Otávio M	6.4	72'	–	–	–	50 (45%)	–
35 Hércules M	6.3	29'	–	–	–	25 (22%)	2
46 Júlio Fidelis D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	43 (40%)	6
10 Ganso M	6.1	18'	–	–	–	9 (9%)	–
32 Luciano Acosta F	6.0	61'	–	–	1	21 (15%)	1
17 Agustín Canobbio M	5.9	61'	–	–	–	24 (20%)	3

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Confidence Low (42%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Atletico-MG oder Unentschieden

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.6%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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Atletico-MG

DWLLW

Fluminense

WLLWW

Last 3 meetings Atletico-MG · 1W 0D 2L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

42%

10%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

28%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Fluminense goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	8	5	2
1	11	15	7	2	1
2	8	9	5	2
3	4	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Atletico-MG goals · most likely 1–1 (14.6%)

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Players in form

Atletico-MG

No scorer data.

Fluminense

John Kennedy 9 gls

Hulk 7 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

31%

Away Win

28%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

31%

Away Win

28%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

60% Home (No Draw) 40% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Home Win by 2+ 11% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

42% Home Scores More 31% Equal Goals 28% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.9%	8.0%	5.1%	1.8%	0.5%
1	10.6%	14.6%	6.8%	2.4%	0.6%
2	8.3%	8.7%	4.6%	1.6%	0.4%
3	3.7%	3.9%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.2%	1.3%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

41%

35%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

55%

1.5

45%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Atletico-MG	Draw	Fluminense
Atletico-MG	22.9%	4.2%	1.7%
Draw	17.7%	20.4%	12.6%
Fluminense	2.1%	4.1%	14.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Atletico-MG vs Fluminense

1 Atletico-MG Wins

0 Draws

2 Fluminense Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
21 Mar 2026	Fluminense	1 - 0	Atletico-MG
04 Oct 2025	Fluminense	3 - 0	Atletico-MG
11 May 2025	Atletico-MG	3 - 2	Fluminense

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Atletico-MG — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Chapecoense-sc	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	H Fluminense	W	3 - 1
09 Sep	A Santos	L	2 - 0
05 Sep	A Sao Paulo	L	2 - 0
02 Sep	H Cruzeiro	W	2 - 1

Fluminense — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Corinthians	W	1 - 3
15 Sep	A Platense	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Atletico-MG	L	3 - 1
08 Sep	H Platense	W	2 - 0
06 Sep	H Vasco DA Gama	W	1 - 0

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18