Auxerre vs Nice Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 33

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Nice

Away

Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre

KI-Tipp Auxerre oder Unentschieden

43%

32%

25%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Auxerre vs Nice prediction: Sportiko gives Auxerre a 43% chance of winning, Nice 25% and the draw 32%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Auxerre claimed a hard-fought 2–1 victory over Nice in Ligue 1, with the decisive moment arriving midway through the second half. Nice made a bright start through Sofiane Diop's ninth-minute opener, but Auxerre levelled quickly with Sékou Mara converting in the 27th minute to send the sides into the break level at 1–1.

The home side took control after the interval, with Lassine Sinayoko netting in the 70th minute to give Auxerre the lead they would not relinquish. The goal proved the turning point in a competitive contest that saw Nice dominate possession at 52% and generate ten corner kicks to Auxerre's one, yet the hosts ultimately showed greater efficiency, posting an expected goals figure of 1.33 against Nice's 0.84.

Auxerre's win was the outcome our pre-match AI model considered most likely, assigning it a 43% probability. Nice pushed hard in the closing stages, prompting a flurry of substitutions from both benches, but Auxerre held firm to secure three valuable points, with Josué Casimir picking up a late yellow card deep into stoppage time.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 9'

Sofiane Diop

Bryan Okoh ⇄ Clement Akpa

13' ⇄

Sékou Mara

27' ⚽ 1–1

HT 1–1

⇄ 59'

Melvin Bard ⇄ Ali Abdi

⇄ 59'

Salis Abdul Samed ⇄ Tom Louchet

Lassine Sinayoko assist: Naouirou Ahamada

70' ⚽ 2–1

Lamine Sy ⇄ Marvin Senaya

71' ⇄

⇄ 76'

Morgan Sanson ⇄ Kevin Carlos Omoruyi

⇄ 76'

Mohamed-Ali Cho ⇄ Elye Wahi

⇄ 81'

Sofiane Diop ⇄ Isak Jansson

Sékou Mara ⇄ Josué Casimir

86' ⇄

Danny Namaso ⇄ Lasso Coulibaly

86' ⇄

Josué Casimir Yellow Card

90+5' ▮

FT 2–1

Auxerre

Match Stats

Nice

52% Ball Possession 48%

0.84 Expected Goals (xG) 1.33

12 Total Shots 10

4 Shots on Goal 6

5 Shots off Goal 2

3 Blocked Shots 2

8 Shots insidebox 8

4 Shots outsidebox 2

10 Corner Kicks 1

0 Offsides 2

15 Fouls 9

1 Yellow Cards 0

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 2

451 Total passes 429

358 Passes accurate 334

79% Passes % 78%

-0.61 goals_prevented -0.61

Auxerre

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Sékou Mara F	7.6	86'	1	–	3	13 (7%)	–
14 Gideon Mensah D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	49 (44%)	1
10 Lassine Sinayoko F	7.3	90'	1	–	3	32 (23%)	1
8 Naouirou Ahamada M	7.3	90'	–	1	–	39 (33%)	2
24 Bryan Okoh D	7.2	13'	–	–	–	9 (9%)	–
92 Clement Akpa D	7.2	77'	–	–	–	50 (37%)	–
19 Danny Namaso F	6.9	86'	–	–	1	24 (22%)	4
29 Marvin Senaya D	6.7	19'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
16 Donovan Léon G	6.7	90'	–	–	–	25 (15%)	1
7 Josué Casimir F	6.6	11'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
20 Sinaly Diomandé D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	66 (55%)	1
5 Kévin Danois M	6.6	90'	–	–	1	70 (55%)	5
42 Elisha Owusu M	6.3	90'	–	–	1	40 (29%)	3
27 Lamine Sy D	6.3	71'	–	–	–	27 (23%)	1
21 Lasso Coulibaly M	6.3	11'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–

Nice

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Sofiane Diop M	7.2	81'	1	–	2	30 (22%)	–
21 Isak Jansson F	6.7	9'	–	–	1	2 (1%)	1
25 Mohamed-Ali Cho F	6.7	76'	–	–	3	17 (13%)	–
33 Antoine Mendy D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	45 (35%)	3
6 Hicham Boudaoui M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	52 (43%)	1
37 Kojo Peprah Oppong D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	65 (62%)	2
90 Kevin Carlos Omoruyi F	6.6	14'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	–
2 Ali Abdi D	6.5	31'	–	–	–	18 (14%)	1
11 Elye Wahi F	6.3	14'	–	–	2	1	1
80 Yehvann Diouf G	6.3	90'	–	–	–	23 (12%)	–
92 Jonathan Clauss D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	33 (17%)	2
28 Abdulay Juma Bah D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	54 (46%)	1
26 Melvin Bard D	6.3	59'	–	–	–	26 (20%)	–
20 Tom Louchet M	6.3	31'	–	–	–	14 (10%)	–
8 Morgan Sanson M	6.3	76'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	1
99 Salis Abdul Samed M	6.3	59'	–	–	–	24 (20%)	–

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

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Auxerre

LWWWL

Nice

LDLDD

Last 3 meetings Auxerre · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash on May 9, 2026, Auxerre hosts Nice, positioning both teams with contrasting fortunes this season. Auxerre has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals per match, while Nice boasts a solid backline, allowing less than 1 goal per game. Offensively, Auxerre's reliance on set-pieces has yielded mixed results, whereas Nice's dynamic attack, led by their top scorer, has been more consistent. The home advantage could play a crucial role, but if Nice maintains their defensive discipline, they are well-positioned to secure points away from home. Overall, the match promises to be a tactical battle, leaning in favor of the visitors.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Nice goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	16	12	4	1
1	17	13	5	1
2	9	7	3	1
3	3	3	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Auxerre goals · most likely 1–0 (17.3%)

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Head to Head: Auxerre vs Nice

1 Auxerre Wins

1 Draws

1 Nice Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
23 Aug 2025	Nice	3 - 1	Auxerre
14 Mar 2025	Nice	1 - 1	Auxerre
18 Aug 2024	Auxerre	2 - 1	Nice

See all 9 meetings — Premium

Auxerre — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
25 Jul	H Orleans	L	1 - 2
17 May	A Lille	W	0 - 2
10 May	H Nice	W	2 - 1
03 May	H Angers	W	3 - 1
25 Apr	A Lyon	L	3 - 2

Nice — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
31 Jul	A Juventus	L	2 - 0
17 May	H Metz	D	0 - 0
10 May	A Auxerre	L	2 - 1
02 May	H Lens	D	1 - 1
26 Apr	A Marseille	D	1 - 1

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0