Strasbourg vs Toulouse Prognose

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 32

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Toulouse

Away

Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

KI-Tipp Strasbourg oder Unentschieden

47%

26%

27%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Strasbourg vs. Toulouse Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Strasbourg eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 47%, für Toulouse 27% und für ein Unentschieden 26%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 28 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Strasbourg fell to a 1–2 home defeat against Toulouse in Ligue 1's 32nd round, despite enjoying the majority of possession. Toulouse broke the deadlock through Samuel Amo-Ameyaw on 27 minutes, only for Dayann Methalie to level matters just before half-time to send the sides in level at the break.

The second half told a clearer story in terms of quality. Toulouse's superior xG of 1.36 against Strasbourg's modest 0.41 reflected a visiting side that consistently threatened, and substitute Emersonn settled the contest with a goal on 84 minutes to secure all three points. Strasbourg, despite eight corner kicks and 54% possession, managed only four shots on target and could not find a response.

The result was a surprise given our pre-match AI model had rated a Strasbourg win as the most likely outcome at 47%. Methalie picked up a second yellow card booking in the second half, while the match closed out with late cautions for Alexis Vossah and Aron Dønnum, capping a frustrating evening for the hosts.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Yaya Diémé Yellow Card

20' ▮

Samuel Amo-Ameyaw assist: Ismael Doukouré

27' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 43'

Dayann Methalie assist: Cristian Cásseres Jr.

HT 1–1

Abdoul Ouattara ⇄ Samir El Mourabet

46' ⇄

▮ 56'

Dayann Methalie Yellow Card

Mathis Amougou ⇄ Diego Moreira

63' ⇄

⇄ 63'

Jacen Russell-Rowe ⇄ Emersonn

Ismael Doukouré ⇄ Andrew Omobamidele

71' ⇄

Yaya Diémé ⇄ Julio Enciso

72' ⇄

▮ 75'

Alexis Vossah Yellow Card

⇄ 77'

Dayann Methalie ⇄ Warren Kamanzi

⇄ 78'

Santiago Hidalgo ⇄ Djibril Sidibé

Sebastian Nanasi ⇄ Emmanuel Emegha

82' ⇄

⇄ 82'

Alexis Vossah ⇄ Mario Sauer

⇄ 82'

Yann Gboho ⇄ Ilyas Azizi

⚽ 1–2 84'

Emersonn assist: Cristian Cásseres Jr.

▮ 90+7'

Aron Dønnum Yellow Card

FT 1–2

Strasbourg

Match Stats

Toulouse

54% Ball Possession 46%

0.41 Expected Goals (xG) 1.36

9 Total Shots 16

4 Shots on Goal 6

1 Shots off Goal 7

4 Blocked Shots 3

5 Shots insidebox 7

4 Shots outsidebox 9

8 Corner Kicks 3

2 Offsides 3

7 Fouls 15

1 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

4 Goalkeeper Saves 3

471 Total passes 403

414 Passes accurate 351

88% Passes % 87%

-0.27 goals_prevented -0.27

Strasbourg

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
27 Samuel Amo-Ameyaw M	7.9	90'	1	–	2	22 (21%)	2
29 Samir El Mourabet M	7.5	45'	–	–	–	33 (28%)	4
6 Ismael Doukouré D	7.2	71'	–	1	–	63 (60%)	–
24 Lucas Høgsberg D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	64 (59%)	3
8 Maxi Oyedele D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	56 (50%)	7
11 Sebastian Nanasi F	6.9	82'	–	–	–	19 (14%)	2
7 Diego Moreira F	6.6	27'	–	–	–	13 (11%)	–
19 Julio Enciso M	6.5	18'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–
2 Andrew Omobamidele D	6.5	19'	–	–	–	18 (17%)	–
42 Abdoul Ouattara D	6.5	45'	–	–	–	25 (22%)	–
10 Emmanuel Emegha F	6.3	8'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
83 Rafael Luis M	6.3	90'	–	–	–	43 (37%)	2
80 Gessime Yassine M	6.2	90'	–	–	1	23 (15%)	1
17 Mathis Amougou M	6.2	63'	–	–	1	29 (23%)	3
34 Yaya Diémé F	6.2	72'	–	–	1	9 (8%)	–
39 Mike Penders G	5.9	90'	–	–	–	45 (40%)	–

Toulouse

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Cristian Cásseres Jr. M	7.9	90'	–	2	–	50 (43%)	4
24 Dayann Methalie M	7.7	77'	1	–	1	20 (18%)	3
2 Rasmus Nicolaisen D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	33 (29%)	3
10 Yann Gboho F	7.2	82'	–	–	2	27 (23%)	2
20 Emersonn F	7.2	27'	1	–	3	3 (3%)	–
15 Aron Dønnum M	7.0	90'	–	–	–	50 (41%)	2
3 Mark McKenzie D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	53 (51%)	1
1 Guillaume Restes G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	29 (22%)	–
11 Santiago Hidalgo F	6.9	78'	–	–	2	21 (18%)	7
77 Mario Sauer M	6.7	8'	–	–	1	6 (6%)	–
37 Ilyas Azizi F	6.7	8'	–	–	1	6 (6%)	–
45 Alexis Vossah M	6.7	82'	–	–	–	30 (30%)	–
19 Djibril Sidibé D	6.6	12'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
12 Warren Kamanzi D	6.6	13'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	1
4 Charlie Cresswell D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	51 (42%)	–
13 Jacen Russell-Rowe F	6.5	63'	–	–	2	15 (12%)	1

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Confidence Medium (60%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Strasbourg oder Unentschieden

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Strasbourg

LDWWL

Toulouse

WDLDL

Last 3 meetings Strasbourg · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Strasbourg will host Toulouse at Stade de la Meinau on May 3, 2026. Strasbourg has shown resilience at home, boasting a strong defensive record, while Toulouse has struggled with consistency in away matches. The key battle will likely be in midfield, where Strasbourg's ability to control possession could limit Toulouse's attacking options. Historically, matches between these two have been closely contested, and with both teams vying for crucial points, expect a tactical encounter. The outcome may hinge on set pieces, where both teams have found success this season.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Toulouse goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	8	4	2
1	11	12	7	2	1
2	9	9	5	2	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Strasbourg goals · most likely 1–1 (12.2%)

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Players in form

Strasbourg

Gessime Yassine 2 gls

S. Amo-Ameyaw 2 gls

Toulouse

C. Tengstedt 3 gls

T. Jørgensen 2 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Strasbourg vs Toulouse

2 Strasbourg Wins

0 Draws

1 Toulouse Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
06 Dec 2025	Toulouse	1 - 0	Strasbourg
16 Mar 2025	Strasbourg	2 - 1	Toulouse
12 Jan 2025	Toulouse	1 - 2	Strasbourg

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Strasbourg — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Paris FC	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	H Monaco	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	A Estac Troyes	W	2 - 6
29 Aug	H Lens	W	2 - 1
21 Aug	A Marseille	L	4 - 0

Toulouse — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Le Havre	W	3 - 2
12 Sep	A Lorient	D	2 - 2
03 Sep	H Lille	L	0 - 1
29 Aug	A Stade Brestois 29	D	2 - 2
22 Aug	H Lyon	L	0 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2