Napoli vs Bologna Prognose

Serie A · Regular Season - 36

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Bologna

Away

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58%

22%

20%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Napoli vs. Bologna Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Napoli eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 58%, für Bologna 20% und für ein Unentschieden 22%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Bologna claimed a hard-fought 3–2 victory at Napoli in a dramatic Serie A encounter. Federico Bernardeschi opened the scoring for the visitors in the 10th minute, and Bologna doubled their lead via Riccardo Orsolini's penalty shortly before the break after VAR confirmed a spot-kick. Giovanni Di Lorenzo pulled one back for Napoli right on half-time to set up a tense second period.

Napoli's hopes of a comeback were quickly dented when Alisson Santos restored Bologna's two-goal cushion just three minutes after the restart. The hosts pushed hard — reflected in their 52% possession and seven corner kicks — but their xG of just 0.80 told a story of limited clear-cut chances, and they managed only five shots on target. Jonathan Rowe sealed the points with a 90th-minute goal to confirm Bologna's win despite a late flurry of changes from both benches.

The result was a surprise given the pre-match context — our AI model had rated a Napoli win as the most likely outcome at 58%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 10'

Federico Bernardeschi assist: Juan Miranda

🖵 33'

Juan Miranda Penalty confirmed

⚽ 0–2 34'

Riccardo Orsolini Penalty

▮ 38'

João Mário Yellow Card

Giovanni Di Lorenzo

45' ⚽ 1–2

HT 1–2

▮ 47'

Federico Bernardeschi Yellow Card

Alisson Santos assist: Rasmus Højlund

48' ⚽ 2–2

▮ 58'

Eivind Helland Yellow Card

⇄ 64'

João Mário ⇄ Nadir Zortea

▮ 69'

Jhon Lucumí Yellow Card

⇄ 73'

Federico Bernardeschi ⇄ Jonathan Rowe

Giovane ⇄ Eljif Elmas

76' ⇄

Stanislav Lobotka ⇄ Billy Gilmour

76' ⇄

⇄ 81'

Tommaso Pobega ⇄ Nikola Moro

⇄ 81'

Lewis Ferguson ⇄ Simon Sohm

⇄ 82'

Eivind Helland ⇄ Torbjørn Heggem

Matteo Politano Yellow Card

84' ▮

Matteo Politano ⇄ Leonardo Spinazzola

85' ⇄

Miguel Gutiérrez ⇄ Pasquale Mazzocchi

87' ⇄

⚽ 2–3 90'

Jonathan Rowe

FT 2–3

Napoli

Match Stats

Bologna

52% Ball Possession 48%

0.80 Expected Goals (xG) 1.26

14 Total Shots 10

5 Shots on Goal 4

5 Shots off Goal 5

4 Blocked Shots 1

11 Shots insidebox 5

3 Shots outsidebox 5

7 Corner Kicks 1

4 Offsides 0

10 Fouls 12

1 Yellow Cards 4

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 3

484 Total passes 458

425 Passes accurate 386

88% Passes % 84%

-0.78 goals_prevented -0.78

Napoli

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
27 Alisson Santos F	8.5	90'	1	–	2	31 (29%)	1
8 Scott McTominay M	6.9	90'	–	–	3	39 (35%)	–
21 Matteo Politano M	6.9	84'	–	–	–	40 (29%)	–
22 Giovanni Di Lorenzo D	6.9	90'	1	–	2	57 (48%)	–
3 Miguel Gutiérrez M	6.7	87'	–	–	–	43 (39%)	4
68 Stanislav Lobotka M	6.7	76'	–	–	–	51 (47%)	1
23 Giovane F	6.7	76'	–	–	1	20 (19%)	1
19 Rasmus Højlund F	6.6	90'	–	1	–	17 (14%)	–
20 Eljif Elmas M	6.5	14'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
6 Billy Gilmour M	6.5	14'	–	–	–	17 (17%)	–
30 Pasquale Mazzocchi D	6.3	9'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
37 Leonardo Spinazzola D	6.2	12'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
13 Amir Rrahmani D	6.0	90'	–	–	2	61 (54%)	–
32 Vanja Milinković-Savić G	5.9	90'	–	–	–	30 (24%)	–
4 Alessandro Buongiorno D	5.7	90'	–	–	–	69 (64%)	–

Bologna

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Federico Bernardeschi F	7.6	73'	1	–	2	39 (34%)	–
8 Remo Freuler M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	54 (51%)	–
33 Juan Miranda D	7.2	90'	–	1	2	56 (51%)	2
11 Jonathan Rowe F	7.2	17'	1	–	2	4 (4%)	–
7 Riccardo Orsolini F	7.2	90'	1	–	1	21 (16%)	2
19 Lewis Ferguson M	6.9	81'	–	–	1	39 (35%)	3
14 Torbjørn Heggem D	6.9	8'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	1
26 Jhon Lucumí D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	57 (50%)	2
6 Nikola Moro M	6.7	8'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	–
20 Nadir Zortea D	6.6	26'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	1
4 Tommaso Pobega M	6.6	82'	–	–	–	40 (34%)	2
17 João Mário D	6.3	64'	–	–	–	20 (18%)	3
23 Simon Sohm M	6.3	9'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
9 Santiago Castro F	6.3	90'	–	–	1	18 (14%)	–
5 Eivind Helland D	6.0	82'	–	–	–	42 (37%)	–
25 Massimo Pessina G	5.9	90'	–	–	–	44 (22%)	–

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Confidence Medium (62%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

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Napoli

DWLLL

Bologna

DLDLL

Last 3 meetings Napoli · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Napoli will host Bologna in a crucial Serie A clash on May 10, 2026. Napoli, known for their attacking prowess, currently boasts an impressive home record, having won 75% of their matches at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this season. Meanwhile, Bologna has struggled on the road, securing only 30% of their away points. Key players to watch include Napoli's top scorer, who has netted 20 goals this season, and Bologna's resilient defense, which has conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match away. Given Napoli's form and home advantage, they are favored to secure a vital three points.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Bologna goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	5	3	1
1	9	10	5	2	1
2	9	10	5	2	1
3	6	7	4	1
4	3	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Napoli goals · most likely 2–1 (10.1%)

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Head to Head: Napoli vs Bologna

1 Napoli Wins

1 Draws

1 Bologna Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
13 Sep 2026	Napoli	1 - 0	Bologna
09 Nov 2025	Bologna	2 - 0	Napoli
07 Apr 2025	Bologna	1 - 1	Napoli

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Napoli — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Fiorentina	D	1 - 1
13 Sep	H Bologna	W	1 - 0
09 Sep	H Arsenal	L	0 - 1
05 Sep	A Inter	L	3 - 2
30 Aug	H Como	L	1 - 2

Bologna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Torino	D	1 - 1
13 Sep	A Napoli	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Sassuolo	D	2 - 2
31 Aug	A Atalanta	L	1 - 0
24 Aug	H Lazio	L	0 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14	3	+11	13
2	Inter	5	4	1	0	15	8	+7	13
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	5	2	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10	4	+6	11
6	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	9	4	+5	10
7	Juventus	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
8	Como	5	3	1	1	9	6	+3	10
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7	6	+1	7
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	9	9	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	5	7	-2	6
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5	10	-5	6
13	Udinese	5	1	1	3	8	11	-3	4
14	Torino	5	1	1	3	5	8	-3	4
15	Parma	5	1	1	3	4	7	-3	4
16	Monza	5	1	1	3	8	12	-4	4
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6	12	-6	4
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	3	6	-3	2
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	3	10	-7	1
20	Venezia	5	0	0	5	4	13	-9	0

Napoli

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Antonio Conte

32 Milinkovic-Savic

4 Buongiorno

13 Rrahmani

22 Lorenzo

3 Gutierrez

8 McTominay

68 Lobotka

21 Politano

27 Santos

23 Giovane

19 Hojlund

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
32	V. Milinkovic-Savic	G
22	G. Di Lorenzo	D
13	A. Rrahmani	D
4	A. Buongiorno	D
21	M. Politano	M
68	S. Lobotka	M
8	S. McTominay	M
3	M. Gutierrez	M
23	Giovane	F
27	Alisson Santos	F
19	R. Hojlund	F

Substitutes

1	A. Meret	G
14	N. Contini	G
5	Juan Jesus	D
30	P. Mazzocchi	D
20	E. Elmas	M
17	M. Olivera	D
31	S. Beukema	D
26	A. Vergara	M
37	L. Spinazzola	D
99	F. Anguissa	M
6	B. Gilmour	M

Bologna

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Vincenzo Italiano

25 Pessina

33 Miranda

26 Lucumi

5 Helland

17 Mario

19 Ferguson

8 Freuler

4 Pobega

10 Bernardeschi

9 Castro

7 Orsolini

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
25	M. Pessina	G
17	Joao Mario	D
5	E. Fauske Helland	D
26	J. Lucumi	D
33	J. Miranda	D
4	T. Pobega	M
8	R. Freuler	M
19	L. Ferguson	M
7	R. Orsolini	F
9	S. Castro	F
10	F. Bernardeschi	F

Substitutes

13	F. Ravaglia	G
1	L. Skorupski	G
29	L. De Silvestri	D
6	N. Moro	M
14	T. Heggem	D
20	N. Zortea	D
24	T. Dallinga	F
11	J. Rowe	F
30	B. Dominguez	F
22	C. Lykogiannis	D
21	J. Odgaard	F
23	S. Sohm	M