Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg Prognose

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34

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FC Augsburg

Away

Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

KI-Tipp FC Augsburg oder Unentschieden

32%

30%

38%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Union Berlin eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 32%, für FC Augsburg 38% und für ein Unentschieden 30%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Union Berlin produced a dominant home display to thrash FC Augsburg 4–0 in the final Bundesliga matchday of the season, with Andrej Ilić the standout performer. The Serbian striker opened the scoring in the 10th minute and doubled the lead just before half-time in the 42nd, giving Union a commanding 2–0 advantage at the break despite the visitors carrying a yellow card each for Oliver Burke and Christopher Trimmel.

The second half brought more of the same, as András Schäfer extended the lead in the 54th minute before a flurry of substitutions from both sides disrupted the rhythm of the game. Augsburg struggled to find a foothold, and Woo-Yeong Jeong rounded off the scoring in the 89th minute to complete a convincing victory. The underlying numbers told a stark story — Augsburg managed just one shot on target compared to Union's nine, with expected goals heavily favouring the hosts at 3.68 to 0.61.

Our pre-match AI model had rated an Augsburg win as the most likely outcome at 38%, a call that proved well wide of the mark as Union ran out emphatic winners.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Andrej Ilić assist: András Schäfer

10' ⚽ 1–0

Oliver Burke Yellow Card

24' ▮

Christopher Trimmel Yellow Card

26' ▮

Andrej Ilić assist: Oliver Burke

42' ⚽ 2–0

HT 2–0

András Schäfer assist: Livan Burcu

54' ⚽ 3–0

⇄ 55'

Mert Kömür ⇄ Rodrigo Ribeiro

⇄ 55'

Yannik Keitel ⇄ Han-Noah Massengo

⇄ 61'

Marius Wolf ⇄ Mads Pedersen

⇄ 61'

Chrislain Matsima ⇄ Noahkai Banks

▮ 63'

Han-Noah Massengo Yellow Card

Christopher Trimmel ⇄ Josip Juranović

64' ⇄

Ilyas Ansah ⇄ Woo-Yeong Jeong

65' ⇄

Aljoscha Kemlein Yellow Card

70' ▮

Livan Burcu ⇄ Tim Skarke

71' ⇄

⇄ 77'

Michael Gregoritsch ⇄ Uchenna Ogundu

Andrej Ilić ⇄ Leopold Querfeld

86' ⇄

Oliver Burke

86' ⇄

Woo-Yeong Jeong

89' ⚽ 4–0

FT 4–0

Union Berlin

Match Stats

FC Augsburg

49% Ball Possession 51%

3.68 Expected Goals (xG) 0.61

17 Total Shots 11

9 Shots on Goal 1

3 Shots off Goal 6

5 Blocked Shots 4

10 Shots insidebox 6

7 Shots outsidebox 5

4 Corner Kicks 9

2 Offsides 3

6 Fouls 7

3 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 5

450 Total passes 448

376 Passes accurate 369

84% Passes % 82%

0.18 goals_prevented 0.18

Union Berlin

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Andrej Ilić F	9.0	86'	2	–	3	19 (13%)	1
13 András Schäfer M	8.9	90'	1	1	1	53 (50%)	4
11 Woo-Yeong Jeong M	7.7	25'	1	–	1	2 (2%)	–
28 Christopher Trimmel D	7.7	65'	–	–	1	41 (34%)	1
4 Diogo Leite D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	67 (60%)	2
15 Tom Rothe D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	31 (27%)	2
18 Josip Juranović D	7.3	25'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
25 Carl Klaus G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	37 (22%)	–
9 Livan Burcu M	7.2	71'	–	1	1	32 (30%)	–
6 Aljoscha Kemlein M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	55 (51%)	3
21 Tim Skarke M	6.9	19'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–
5 Danilho Doekhi D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	58 (49%)	–
7 Oliver Burke M	6.6	86'	–	1	1	24 (17%)	–
10 Ilyas Ansah M	6.5	65'	–	–	1	22 (15%)	–
14 Leopold Querfeld D	—	4'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	1
30 Dmytro Bogdanov F	—	4'	–	–	2	–	–

FC Augsburg

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
40 Noahkai Banks D	7.5	29'	–	–	–	17 (17%)	3
4 Han-Noah Massengo M	6.9	35'	–	–	–	27 (24%)	1
30 Anton Kade F	6.6	90'	–	–	4	16 (14%)	1
6 Jeffrey Gouweleeuw D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	64 (50%)	5
27 Marius Wolf M	6.5	61'	–	–	–	25 (18%)	3
19 Robin Fellhauer M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	33 (28%)	–
14 Yannik Keitel M	6.5	55'	–	–	–	28 (24%)	1
16 Cedric Zesiger D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	65 (54%)	2
21 Rodrigo Ribeiro F	6.3	35'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	2
3 Mads Pedersen D	6.3	29'	–	–	1	9 (7%)	–
5 Chrislain Matsima D	6.3	61'	–	–	–	25 (24%)	3
32 Fabian Rieder M	6.2	90'	–	–	–	62 (50%)	2
38 Michael Gregoritsch F	6.2	77'	–	–	–	13 (8%)	–
39 Uchenna Ogundu F	6.2	13'	–	–	2	1 (1%)	–
36 Mert Kömür F	6.2	55'	–	–	–	28 (24%)	–
1 Finn Dahmen G	5.7	90'	–	–	–	27 (19%)	–

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Confidence Medium (56%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

FC Augsburg oder Unentschieden

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Union Berlin

LLLDW

FC Augsburg

LDWWW

Last 3 meetings Union Berlin · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Union Berlin hosts FC Augsburg in a crucial Bundesliga clash on May 16, 2026. Union has shown strong home form, with a 65% win rate at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei this season, bolstered by a robust defense that has conceded just 22 goals at home. Augsburg, on the other hand, struggles on the road, recording only 3 wins away from home this season and facing difficulties in scoring against organized defenses. Expect Union to leverage their home advantage and solid defensive structure, while Augsburg will need to find a way to exploit any gaps to secure valuable points in their survival bid.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FC Augsburg goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	13	7	3	1
1	12	13	8	3	1
2	6	7	4	1
3	2	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Union Berlin goals · most likely 1–1 (13.4%)

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Players in form

Union Berlin

T. Skarke 2 gls

FC Augsburg

M. Gregoritsch 3 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg

1 Union Berlin Wins

1 Draws

1 FC Augsburg Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
15 Jan 2026	FC Augsburg	1 - 1	Union Berlin
17 May 2025	FC Augsburg	1 - 2	Union Berlin
15 Jan 2025	Union Berlin	0 - 2	FC Augsburg

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Union Berlin — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Bayern München	L	7 - 0
11 Sep	H FC Schalke 04	L	1 - 3
05 Sep	A Bayer Leverkusen	L	4 - 0
29 Aug	H Eintracht Frankfurt	D	3 - 3
23 Aug	A Eintracht Braunschweig	W	2 - 4

FC Augsburg — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Werder Bremen	L	3 - 2
12 Sep	H Bayer Leverkusen	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	A Eintracht Frankfurt	W	1 - 4
30 Aug	H FC Schalke 04	W	3 - 0
22 Aug	A Energie Cottbus	W	0 - 2

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0