RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli Prognose
RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für RB Leipzig eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 72%, für FC St. Pauli 8% und für ein Unentschieden 20%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
RB Leipzig secured a 2–1 home victory over FC St. Pauli in Bundesliga Matchday 33, with the hosts dominant in possession throughout. Leipzig controlled 70% of the ball and generated an expected goals figure of 1.37, underlining their superiority across the 90 minutes. Our pre-match AI model rated an RB Leipzig win most likely at 72%, a call that proved correct.
The breakthrough came right on half-time, as Xaver Schlager's goal sent Leipzig into the break with a 1–0 lead. The hosts doubled their advantage early in the second half through Willi Orbán in the 54th minute, putting them firmly in control despite Christoph Baumgartner picking up a yellow card shortly after the restart.
St. Pauli refused to capitulate entirely, and substitute Abdoulie Ceesay pulled one back in the 86th minute to set up a nervy finale. Both sides made a flurry of late substitutions as the visitors pushed for an equaliser, but Leipzig held firm to claim all three points and extend their advantage in the standings.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
RB Leipzig
Match Stats
RB Leipzig
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Willi Orbán D | 8.9 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 146 (140%) | 1 |
| 24 Xaver Schlager M | 7.6 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 65 (57%) | 2 |
| 22 David Raum D | 7.5 | 69' | – | 1 | – | 63 (60%) | – |
| 10 Brajan Gruda F | 7.3 | 79' | – | – | 2 | 32 (23%) | – |
| 49 Yan Diomande F | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 35 (26%) | 1 |
| 23 Castello Lukeba D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 125 (117%) | 3 |
| 20 Assan Ouédraogo M | 6.7 | 69' | – | – | 1 | 21 (19%) | – |
| 26 Maarten Vandevoordt G | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 35 (27%) | – |
| 17 Ridle Baku D | 6.6 | 89' | – | – | – | 82 (69%) | 2 |
| 14 Christoph Baumgartner M | 6.6 | 90' | – | 1 | 3 | 62 (49%) | 2 |
| 7 Antonio Nusa M | 6.5 | 11' | – | – | 2 | 3 (3%) | – |
| 40 Rômulo F | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 12 (11%) | 2 |
| 13 Nicolas Seiwald M | 6.2 | 21' | – | – | – | 26 (22%) | – |
| 35 Max Finkgräfe D | 6.2 | 21' | – | – | – | 24 (22%) | – |
| 39 Benjamin Henrichs D | — | 1' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
FC St. Pauli
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Abdoulie Ceesay F | 7.3 | 18' | 1 | – | 1 | 5 (5%) | – |
| 22 Nikola Vasilj G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (16%) | – |
| 7 Jackson Irvine M | 6.9 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 21 (14%) | 6 |
| 5 Hauke Wahl D | 6.9 | 26' | – | – | – | 9 (6%) | 1 |
| 16 Joel Chima Fujita M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (25%) | 9 |
| 15 Tomoya Ando D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 38 (31%) | 2 |
| 11 Arkadiusz Pyrka M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 22 (14%) | 1 |
| 14 Fin Stevens D | 6.6 | 26' | – | – | – | 13 (7%) | – |
| 23 Louis Oppie M | 6.5 | 64' | – | – | 1 | 16 (11%) | 1 |
| 27 Andreas Hountondji F | 6.3 | 72' | – | – | – | 15 (11%) | 1 |
| 21 Lars Ritzka D | 6.3 | 64' | – | – | – | 21 (16%) | 2 |
| 24 Connor Metcalfe M | 6.2 | 89' | – | – | – | 21 (14%) | – |
| 8 Eric Smith D | 6.2 | 89' | – | – | 1 | 27 (20%) | 1 |
| 19 Martijn Kaars F | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 22 (16%) | – |
| 20 Mathias Rasmussen M | — | 1' | – | – | – | 5 (3%) | – |
| 10 Danel Sinani F | — | 1' | – | – | 1 | 3 (2%) | – |
Vollständige KI-Analyse für RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli freischalten
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At a glance
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Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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A. Nusa
2 gls
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2026 | FC St. Pauli | 1 - 1 | RB Leipzig |
| 09 Feb 2025 | RB Leipzig | 2 - 0 | FC St. Pauli |
| 22 Sep 2024 | FC St. Pauli | 0 - 0 | RB Leipzig |
RB Leipzig — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A Bayer Leverkusen | L | 2 - 0 |
| 13 Sep | H Hamburger SV | W | 5 - 0 |
| 10 Sep | A Como | L | 4 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | A Werder Bremen | L | 3 - 1 |
| 29 Aug | H Borussia Mönchengladbach | W | 3 - 0 |
FC St. Pauli — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A Energie Cottbus | D | 1 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | H VfL Wolfsburg | W | 1 - 0 |
| 04 Sep | A Arminia Bielefeld | D | 2 - 2 |
| 30 Aug | H 1. FC Kaiserslautern | L | 1 - 2 |
| 23 Aug | A Rot-Weiß Essen | L | 2 - 0 |
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 |
Bayern München
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 |
SC Freiburg
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 |
FC Augsburg
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 |
Bayer Leverkusen
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |
FSV Mainz 05
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |
SV Elversberg
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |
Werder Bremen
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 |
RB Leipzig
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 |
FC Schalke 04
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |
SC Paderborn 07
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 |
1. FC Köln
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 |
Hamburger SV
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 |
Union Berlin
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 |
Borussia Mönchengladbach
|
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 |
RB Leipzig
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Ole Werner
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | M. Vandevoordt | G |
| 17 | R. Baku | D |
| 4 | W. Orban | D |
| 23 | C. Lukeba | D |
| 22 | D. Raum | D |
| 20 | A. Ouedraogo | M |
| 24 | X. Schlager | M |
| 14 | C. Baumgartner | M |
| 10 | B. Gruda | F |
| 40 | Romulo Cardoso | F |
| 49 | Y. Diomande | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | P. Gulacsi | G |
| 16 | L. Klostermann | D |
| 9 | J. Bakayoko | F |
| 5 | E. Bitshiabu | D |
| 35 | M. Finkgrafe | D |
| 39 | B. Henrichs | D |
| 13 | N. Seiwald | M |
| 7 | A. Nusa | M |
| 11 | C. Harder | F |
FC St. Pauli
Formation: 3-5-2
Coach: Alexander Blessin
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | N. Vasilj | G |
| 15 | T. Ando | D |
| 8 | E. Smith | D |
| 21 | L. Ritzka | D |
| 11 | A. Pyrka | M |
| 24 | C. Metcalfe | M |
| 7 | J. Irvine | M |
| 16 | J. Fujita | M |
| 23 | L. Oppie | M |
| 19 | M. Kaars | F |
| 27 | A. Hountondji | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | B. A. Voll | G |
| 5 | H. Wahl | D |
| 10 | D. Sinani | F |
| 20 | M. Rasmussen | M |
| 14 | F. Stevens | D |
| 18 | T. Hara | F |
| 9 | A. Ceesay | F |