Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 Prognose

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 30

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FSV Mainz 05

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BORUSSIA-PARK, Mönchengladbach

KI-Tipp FSV Mainz 05 oder Unentschieden

26%

47%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FSV Mainz 05 Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Borussia Mönchengladbach eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 26%, für FSV Mainz 05 47% und für ein Unentschieden 26%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 27 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Borussia Mönchengladbach took an early lead through Joe Scally in the seventh minute, and that advantage held until the final stages as the hosts defended resolutely despite being significantly outplayed. Mainz dominated possession with 62% of the ball and created far more danger, registering 17 shots to Gladbach's nine and posting an expected goals figure of 2.32 against the hosts' 0.62.

The visitors' pressure finally told in dramatic fashion in the 90th minute when Nadiem Amiri converted a penalty to level the scores, though Mainz were denied what would have been a winning goal moments earlier when Nelson Weiper's effort was ruled out by VAR. The closing stages were feisty, with yellow cards shown to Nico Elvedi, Yannik Engelhardt, Philipp Sander, and Moritz Nicolas in the final minutes.

The draw felt like a point gained for Mainz and one dropped for Gladbach, a sentiment supported by the underlying numbers — and consistent with our pre-match AI model's assessment, which had a Mainz win as the most likely outcome at 47%.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Joe Scally assist: Hugo Bolin

7' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 21'

Dominik Kohr Yellow Card

▮ 22'

Anthony Caci Yellow Card

HT 1–0

Hugo Bolin ⇄ Franck Honorat

66' ⇄

⇄ 66'

Sheraldo Becker ⇄ Armindo Sieb

⇄ 66'

Nikolas Veratschnig ⇄ Phillipp Mwene

Kevin Diks ⇄ Fabio Chiarodia

71' ⇄

Kevin Stöger ⇄ Giovanni Reyna

72' ⇄

Jens Castrop ⇄ Lukas Ullrich

72' ⇄

⇄ 76'

Anthony Caci ⇄ Silvan Widmer

⇄ 76'

Paul Nebel ⇄ William Bøving

Haris Tabaković Yellow Card

82' ▮

⇄ 82'

Danny da Costa ⇄ Nelson Weiper

Haris Tabaković ⇄ Kota Takai

87' ⇄

Yannik Engelhardt Yellow Card

89' ▮

🖵 89'

Nelson Weiper Goal cancelled

Nico Elvedi Yellow Card

90' ▮

⚽ 1–1 90'

Nadiem Amiri Penalty

Philipp Sander Yellow Card

90+3' ▮

Moritz Nicolas Yellow Card

90+7' ▮

FT 1–1

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Match Stats

FSV Mainz 05

38% Ball Possession 62%

0.62 Expected Goals (xG) 2.32

9 Total Shots 17

4 Shots on Goal 7

2 Shots off Goal 5

3 Blocked Shots 5

7 Shots insidebox 10

2 Shots outsidebox 7

0 Corner Kicks 6

0 Offsides 2

12 Fouls 8

5 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

6 Goalkeeper Saves 3

366 Total passes 588

289 Passes accurate 513

79% Passes % 87%

0.20 goals_prevented 0.20

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
33 Moritz Nicolas G	8.6	90'	–	–	–	27 (15%)	–
7 Kevin Stöger M	7.6	72'	–	–	–	41 (36%)	3
4 Kevin Diks D	7.3	71'	–	–	1	42 (35%)	–
17 Jens Castrop M	7.2	72'	–	–	2	24 (18%)	2
29 Joe Scally M	7.2	90'	1	–	1	16 (12%)	–
30 Nico Elvedi D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	47 (42%)	–
27 Rocco Reitz M	7.0	90'	–	–	1	31 (22%)	3
16 Philipp Sander D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	46 (38%)	1
13 Giovanni Reyna M	6.7	18'	–	–	–	6 (3%)	1
38 Hugo Bolin F	6.6	66'	–	1	1	17 (10%)	1
26 Lukas Ullrich D	6.5	18'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
2 Fabio Chiarodia D	6.5	19'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
14 Kota Takai D	6.5	11'	–	–	–	–	1
9 Franck Honorat M	6.2	24'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	–
15 Haris Tabaković F	6.0	87'	–	–	–	10 (6%)	1
6 Yannik Engelhardt M	5.9	90'	–	–	–	49 (46%)	–

FSV Mainz 05

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
4 Stefan Posch D	8.2	90'	–	–	–	73 (61%)	4
10 Nadiem Amiri M	7.9	90'	1	–	2	62 (57%)	–
19 Anthony Caci M	7.6	76'	–	–	–	50 (45%)	4
44 Nelson Weiper F	7.5	8'	–	–	–	–	–
2 Phillipp Mwene D	7.3	24'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	–
31 Dominik Kohr D	7.3	90'	–	–	2	85 (76%)	1
33 Daniel Batz G	7.0	90'	–	–	–	18 (17%)	–
30 Silvan Widmer D	6.7	14'	–	–	–	15 (15%)	–
21 Danny da Costa D	6.7	82'	–	–	–	70 (61%)	1
14 William Bøving F	6.7	14'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	–
6 Kaishu Sano M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	77 (72%)	–
22 Nikolas Veratschnig M	6.5	66'	–	–	–	21 (13%)	2
8 Paul Nebel M	6.3	76'	–	–	1	40 (35%)	–
20 Phillip Tietz F	6.2	90'	–	–	4	27 (22%)	–
11 Armindo Sieb F	6.2	24'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	–
23 Sheraldo Becker F	5.9	66'	–	–	3	15 (10%)	–

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Confidence Medium (62%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

FSV Mainz 05 oder Unentschieden

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Borussia Mönchengladbach

LLLLW

FSV Mainz 05

WLWDW

Last 3 meetings Borussia Mönchengladbach · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash, Borussia Mönchengladbach hosts FSV Mainz 05, both teams aiming to secure vital points for their respective league standings. Mönchengladbach has shown a solid home record this season, winning 60% of their matches at Borussia-Park, while Mainz struggles with away performance, having only managed a 25% win rate on the road. Key players to watch include Gladbach's attack, which has averaged over 2 goals per game at home, versus Mainz's defense that has conceded 1.8 goals per game away. The match could be pivotal for both teams, impacting their positions in the mid-table battle as they seek to avoid relegation threats.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

FSV Mainz 05 goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	12	9	4	2
1	8	12	9	5	2
2	4	6	5	2	1
3	1	2	2	1
4		1
5

↑ Borussia Mönchengladbach goals · most likely 1–1 (12.4%)

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Players in form

Borussia Mönchengladbach

No scorer data.

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz 4 gls

S. Becker 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05

1 Borussia Mönchengladbach Wins

0 Draws

2 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
19 Sep 2026	Borussia Mönchengladbach	3 - 4	FSV Mainz 05
05 Dec 2025	FSV Mainz 05	0 - 1	Borussia Mönchengladbach
07 Mar 2025	Borussia Mönchengladbach	1 - 3	FSV Mainz 05

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Borussia Mönchengladbach — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H FSV Mainz 05	L	3 - 4
12 Sep	A SC Freiburg	L	5 - 0
05 Sep	H SV Elversberg	L	3 - 4
29 Aug	A RB Leipzig	L	3 - 0
23 Aug	A Schott Mainz	W	0 - 5

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 4
12 Sep	H Eintracht Frankfurt	L	1 - 3
06 Sep	A Hamburger SV	W	0 - 5
29 Aug	H SC Paderborn 07	D	0 - 0
23 Aug	A Krieschow	W	0 - 9

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0