Sturm Graz vs Celje Prognose
Sturm Graz vs. Celje Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Sturm Graz eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 62%, für Celje 15% und für ein Unentschieden 22%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 5 Nov 2026, 21:53.
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Match Report
Sturm Graz suffered a stunning home defeat to Celje in the UEFA Europa League league stage, going down 2–3 despite dominating possession and territory throughout. The Slovenian visitors took control early, with Svit Sešlar opening the scoring at 29 minutes before Oumar Diakité doubled the lead shortly after. Benjamin Verbič added a third just before half-time to put Celje firmly in command, leaving Sturm Graz with a mountain to climb after the break.
The Austrian hosts pressed hard in the second half, reflected in their 61% possession and 12 corner kicks, but struggled to convert their chances — managing just five shots on target from 26 total attempts. Sturm Graz pulled one back, but Sešlar struck again in the 73rd minute to restore Celje's two-goal cushion. Diakité then completed his brace deep into stoppage time to seal a remarkable away victory, with Sturm Graz's expected goals figure of 2.28 underlining their wastefulness in front of goal.
The result was a significant upset — our pre-match AI model had rated a Sturm Graz win as the most likely outcome at 62% — with Celje claiming all three points on just eight total shots.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Sturm Graz
Match Stats
Sturm Graz
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oumar Diakité F | 8.2 | 90' | 2 | – | 7 | 14 (14%) | – |
| 19 Simon Seidl F | 7.2 | 85' | – | – | 5 | 35 (29%) | – |
| 22 Ammar Helac G | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 23 (20%) | – |
| 26 Belmin Beganović F | 6.7 | 16' | – | – | 1 | 7 (7%) | – |
| 78 Valmir Matoshi F | 6.3 | 58' | – | – | 2 | 10 (6%) | – |
| 30 Paul Koller D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 57 (49%) | 1 |
| 39 Luca Weinhandl M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 34 (28%) | 2 |
| 2 Joshua Quarshie D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 80 (72%) | 1 |
| 23 Arjan Malić D | 6.1 | 74' | – | – | – | 60 (53%) | 2 |
| 15 Gizo Mamageishvili M | 6.1 | 5' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 4 Jon Gorenc Stanković M | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | 5 | 60 (47%) | 1 |
| 43 Jacob Hödl M | 5.9 | 32' | – | – | – | 17 (12%) | 2 |
| 27 L. Balbo M | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 32 (23%) | 1 |
| 28 Jurgen Heil M | 5.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 59 (43%) | 1 |
Celje
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Svit Sešlar M | 8.8 | 90' | 2 | – | 2 | 37 (25%) | 4 |
| 7 Benjamin Verbič F | 8.2 | 58' | 1 | – | 2 | 13 (8%) | 1 |
| 1 Zan Luk Leban G | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 35 (20%) | – |
| 13 Papa Daniel M | 6.7 | 58' | – | – | – | 24 (21%) | – |
| 9 Blaž Kramer F | 6.6 | 24' | – | – | 1 | 7 (3%) | – |
| 44 Łukasz Bejger D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 28 (24%) | 1 |
| 15 Žan Žužek D | 6.4 | 32' | – | – | – | 9 (9%) | – |
| 2 Pijus Širvys D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (23%) | 2 |
| 47 Armandas Kučys F | 6.3 | 78' | – | – | 2 | 17 (10%) | 1 |
| 11 Milot Avdyli D | 6.3 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 37 (26%) | 2 |
| 4 Darko Hrka M | 6.2 | 12' | – | – | – | 1 | 1 |
| 19 Mark Zabukovnik M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (26%) | 2 |
| 6 Artemijus Tutyškinas D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (28%) | 3 |
| 8 Mario Kvesić M | 6.0 | 32' | – | – | – | 11 (7%) | 2 |
| 25 Veton Tusha F | 5.8 | 66' | – | – | 1 | 15 (11%) | – |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowLive insights
Late goal makes it 2-3! Celje win probability: 95.4%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 9.5%.
Min 75: Celje leads 1-3. Win probability: 95.5%. Comeback chance: 4.5%.
Celje now leads 1-3 with 94.5% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 44.6%.
Celje now leads 1-3 with 80.5% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 75.9%.
Goal! Score now 1-2. Celje win: 51.4%. BTTS: 100%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Most likely scores
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
O. Diakité
3 gls
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Sturm Graz vs Celje
No head-to-head history found between these teams.
Sturm Graz — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | H Celje | L | 2 - 3 |
| 01 Nov | A Wolfsberger AC | D | 1 - 1 |
| 29 Oct | A Austria Lustenau | L | 3 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | H Ried | D | 2 - 2 |
| 22 Oct | H Marseille | W | 1 - 0 |
Celje — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | A Sturm Graz | W | 2 - 3 |
| 01 Nov | H Nafta | W | 4 - 0 |
| 28 Oct | A Olimpija Ljubljana | D | 1 - 1 |
| 25 Oct | A Korotan Prevalje | W | 0 - 2 |
| 22 Oct | H Red Bull Salzburg | D | 2 - 2 |
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benfica
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |
Bournemouth
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |
Ferencvarosi TC
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |
Union St. Gilloise
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |
Juventus
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |
Olympiakos Piraeus
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |
Bayer Leverkusen
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |
Beşiktaş
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |
Dinamo Zagreb
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |
Levski Sofia
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |
Sunderland
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |
NEC Nijmegen
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |
Lyon
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |
AZ Alkmaar
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |
Anderlecht
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |
OFI
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |
Rennes
|
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |
Omonia Nicosia
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |
Torreense
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |
Real Sociedad
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |
Crystal Palace
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |
Sparta Praha
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |
1899 Hoffenheim
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |
Sturm Graz
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |
Celje
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |
Red Bull Salzburg
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |
Celta Vigo
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |
AC Milan
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |
Jagiellonia
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |
Plzen
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |
Marseille
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |
Celtic
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |
Hapoel Beer Sheva
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |
Lillestrom
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |
Lech Poznan
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |
Ararat-Armenia
|
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 0 |
Sturm Graz
Formation: 3-4-3
Coach: F. Ingolitsch
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | A. Helac | G |
| 23 | A. Malic | D |
| 2 | J. Quarshie | D |
| 30 | P. Koller | D |
| 28 | J. Heil | M |
| 39 | Luca Weinhandl | M |
| 4 | J. Gorenc Stankovič | M |
| 27 | L. Balbo | M |
| 19 | S. Seidl | F |
| 14 | O. Diakité | F |
| 78 | V. Matoshi | F |
Substitutes
| 26 | B. Beganović | F |
| 40 | J. Halwachs | M |
| 43 | Jacob Peter Hödl | M |
| 11 | A. Kayombo | F |
| 41 | E. Lorenz | G |
| 15 | G. Mamageishvili | M |
| 21 | P. Petrović | D |
| 1 | Adam Stejskal | G |
| 5 | A. Vallci | D |
| 38 | Jonas Peinhart | F |
| 25 | M. Grgic | M |
Celje
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Z. Željkovič
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Žan-Luk Leban | G |
| 2 | P. Širvys | D |
| 44 | Ł. Bejger | D |
| 6 | A. Tutyškinas | D |
| 11 | M. Avdyli | D |
| 13 | Papa Mustapha Daniel | M |
| 19 | M. Zabukovnik | M |
| 10 | S. Sešlar | M |
| 25 | V. Tusha | F |
| 47 | A. Kučys | F |
| 7 | B. Verbič | F |
Substitutes
| 23 | Ž. Frelih | G |
| 4 | D. Hrka | M |
| 77 | M. Ivanšek | F |
| 12 | L. Kolar | G |
| 33 | L. Koútris | D |
| 9 | B. Kramer | F |
| 8 | M. Kvesić | M |
| 31 | D. Suhovrsnik | F |
| 15 | Ž. Žužek | D |
| 91 | Y. Dukuly | F |
| 20 | A. Dionkou | D |