RB Leipzig vs Manchester City Prognose
RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für RB Leipzig eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 17%, für Manchester City 62% und für ein Unentschieden 20%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 4 Nov 2026, 21:55.
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Match Report
Manchester City claimed a dramatic 3–2 victory at RB Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League league stage, coming from behind to secure all three points. The visitors went into the break ahead through Castello Lukeba's own goal on 37 minutes, but Leipzig turned the game around early in the second half with Ridle Baku equalising on 49 minutes before Enzo Fernández put the hosts in front nine minutes later.
The match swung decisively when Antonio Nusa restored parity for City on 61 minutes, and Erling Haaland then delivered the decisive blow on 78 minutes to seal a memorable comeback win. Despite Leipzig enjoying 65% possession and generating an expected goals figure of 2.24 against City's 0.84, Pep Guardiola's side proved ruthlessly efficient, converting three of their 13 total shots.
The contest was a feisty affair, with six yellow cards distributed across both teams. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Manchester City win as the most likely outcome at 62%, a call that proved correct as City moved further up the league stage standings.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
RB Leipzig
Match Stats
RB Leipzig
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Antonio Nusa F | 8.2 | 73' | 1 | – | 2 | 25 (17%) | 1 |
| 10 Brajan Gruda F | 6.8 | 90' | – | 1 | 2 | 38 (30%) | 1 |
| 28 Christopher Nkunku F | 6.6 | 33' | – | 1 | – | 9 (8%) | – |
| 21 Neil El Aynaoui M | 6.5 | 74' | – | – | – | 39 (35%) | 2 |
| 22 David Raum D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 34 (31%) | 6 |
| 17 Ridle Baku D | 6.3 | 74' | 1 | – | 2 | 20 (14%) | 1 |
| 40 Rômulo F | 6.3 | 67' | – | – | – | 14 (14%) | 1 |
| 27 Tidiam Gomis F | 6.2 | 23' | – | – | 1 | 5 (4%) | – |
| 4 Willi Orbán D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 32 (29%) | 2 |
| 6 Ezechiel Banzuzi M | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 28 (23%) | 2 |
| 14 Christoph Baumgartner M | 6.0 | 57' | – | – | 3 | 18 (18%) | – |
| 20 Rocco Reitz M | 5.9 | 17' | – | – | 1 | 3 (1%) | 1 |
| 13 Nicolas Seiwald M | 5.8 | 16' | – | – | – | 6 (4%) | – |
| 39 Benjamin Henrichs D | 5.8 | 16' | – | – | – | 9 (8%) | – |
| 26 Maarten Vandevoordt G | 5.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 39 (31%) | – |
| 23 Castello Lukeba D | 5.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (37%) | – |
Manchester City
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Enzo Fernández M | 8.1 | 83' | 1 | – | 1 | 59 (51%) | – |
| 9 Erling Haaland F | 8.0 | 90' | 1 | – | 3 | 8 (4%) | 1 |
| 7 Iliman Ndiaye M | 7.7 | 83' | – | 1 | – | 35 (32%) | 1 |
| 5 Elliot Anderson M | 7.7 | 83' | – | 1 | 1 | 82 (79%) | 7 |
| 1 Gianluigi Donnarumma G | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 28 (20%) | 1 |
| 11 Jérémy Doku F | 6.9 | 26' | – | – | 1 | 11 (10%) | – |
| 6 Marc Guéhi D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 79 (73%) | – |
| 10 Rayan Cherki M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 4 | 74 (67%) | – |
| 27 Matheus Nunes D | 6.6 | 79' | – | – | – | 108 (103%) | 1 |
| 45 Abdukodir Khusanov D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 90 (86%) | 1 |
| 37 Allan F | 6.5 | 7' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 3 Rúben Dias D | 6.4 | 11' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | – |
| 47 Phil Foden M | 6.4 | 64' | – | – | 1 | 37 (32%) | – |
| 33 Nico O'Reilly D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 47 (39%) | 4 |
| 8 Mateo Kovačić M | 6.3 | 7' | – | – | – | 6 (5%) | 1 |
| 32 Ayyoub Bouaddi M | 6.1 | 7' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | – |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowLive insights
Min 84: Manchester City leads 2-3. Win probability: 93.1%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 6.9%.
Late goal makes it 2-3! Manchester City win probability: 88.8%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 40.1%.
Min 75: Still level at 2-2. Draw looking likely at 58.5%. Late goal chance: 47.2%.
Equalizer scored! Match now level at 2-2. Draw probability: 42.9%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.
Goal! Score now 1-2. Manchester City win: 83.4%. BTTS: 100%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: RB Leipzig vs Manchester City
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov 2023 | Manchester City | 3 - 2 | RB Leipzig |
| 04 Oct 2023 | RB Leipzig | 1 - 3 | Manchester City |
| 14 Mar 2023 | Manchester City | 7 - 0 | RB Leipzig |
RB Leipzig — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | H FC Augsburg | W | 5 - 2 |
| 04 Nov | H Manchester City | L | 2 - 3 |
| 31 Oct | A FC Schalke 04 | W | 0 - 2 |
| 27 Oct | A Rot-Weiß Essen | W | 1 - 2 |
| 24 Oct | H SV Elversberg | W | 4 - 0 |
Manchester City — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Nottingham Forest | L | 3 - 1 |
| 04 Nov | A RB Leipzig | W | 2 - 3 |
| 31 Oct | H Brighton | L | 0 - 1 |
| 28 Oct | H Brighton | D | 2 - 2 |
| 24 Oct | A Aston Villa | L | 2 - 1 |
UEFA Champions League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 12 |
| 2 |
Real Madrid
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 |
Arsenal
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 |
Como
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 9 |
| 5 |
Barcelona
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 9 |
| 6 |
Aston Villa
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 9 |
| 7 |
Manchester City
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 9 |
| 8 |
Liverpool
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 |
Club Brugge KV
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |
Sporting CP
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |
Real Betis
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |
Bayern München
|
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 8 |
| 14 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 15 |
Inter
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 |
Lask Linz
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |
Manchester United
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 18 |
Galatasaray
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |
Fenerbahçe
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 20 |
AS Roma
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 |
| 21 |
Shakhtar Donetsk
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 22 |
Viking
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 |
Atletico Madrid
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 24 |
PSV Eindhoven
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 25 |
Bodo/Glimt
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 26 |
FC Porto
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 |
Napoli
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 28 |
Villarreal
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 3 |
| 29 |
AEK Athens FC
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 30 |
RB Leipzig
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 31 |
Sabah FA
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 32 |
Feyenoord
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 33 |
Lens
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 3 |
| 34 |
Slavia Praha
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 |
| 35 |
Lille
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
| 36 |
Slovan Bratislava
|
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 17 | -16 | 0 |
Manchester City
Formation: 4-1-4-1
Coach: E. Maresca
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | G. Donnarumma | G |
| 27 | Matheus Nunes | D |
| 45 | A. Khusanov | D |
| 6 | M. Guéhi | D |
| 33 | N. O'Reilly | D |
| 5 | E. Anderson | M |
| 47 | P. Foden | M |
| 17 | E. Fernández | M |
| 10 | R. Cherki | M |
| 7 | I. Ndiaye | M |
| 9 | E. Haaland | F |
Substitutes
| 75 | F. Samba | M |
| 28 | G. Rulli | G |
| 82 | R. Lewis | D |
| 8 | M. Kovačić | M |
| 24 | J. Gvardiol | D |
| 11 | J. Doku | F |
| 3 | Rúben Dias | D |
| 32 | A. Bouaddi | M |
| 13 | M. Bettinelli | G |
| 37 | Allan | F |
| 21 | R. Aït-Nouri | D |
| 22 | Vitor Nunes | D |
RB Leipzig
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: M. Demichelis
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | M. Vandevoordt | G |
| 17 | R. Baku | D |
| 4 | W. Orbán | D |
| 23 | C. Lukeba | D |
| 22 | D. Raum | D |
| 21 | N. El Aynaoui | M |
| 14 | C. Baumgartner | M |
| 6 | E. Banzuzi | M |
| 10 | B. Gruda | F |
| 40 | Rômulo | F |
| 7 | A. Nusa | F |
Substitutes
| 11 | J. Bakayoko | F |
| 13 | N. Seiwald | M |
| 20 | R. Reitz | M |
| 1 | Ø. Nyland | G |
| 28 | C. Nkunku | F |
| 30 | A. MaksimoviÄ | M |
| 3 | M. Estève | D |
| 27 | T. Gomis | F |
| 39 | B. Henrichs | D |
| 16 | L. Klostermann | D |
| 2 | A. Koné | D |