Larne vs Lincoln Red Imps FC Prognose

UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round

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Larne

Home

0 : 3

HT 0 - 0

Hinspiel 2-0 · Gesamt 2-3

Lincoln Red Imps FC

Away

KI-Tipp Larne oder Unentschieden

49%

28%

23%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Larne vs. Lincoln Red Imps FC Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Larne eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 49%, für Lincoln Red Imps FC 23% und für ein Unentschieden 28%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 27 Aug 2026, 21:32.

Match Report

Larne dominated possession throughout this UEFA Europa Conference League playoff tie, controlling 89% of the ball and registering eight shots on target to Lincoln Red Imps' two. Despite that overwhelming statistical superiority, the first half ended goalless, and the match remained level heading into the final stages of the second period.

The game turned dramatically in the closing minutes of normal time, with Lincoln Red Imps scoring twice in quick succession — at the 82nd and 84th minutes — to seize control. A red card issued at the 87th minute further complicated matters for Larne, and the tie effectively ended as a contest when Lincoln converted a penalty deep into extra time to seal a 3–0 victory. The scoreline was a stark contrast to the territorial dominance Larne had enjoyed throughout.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Larne win as the most likely outcome at 49%, a call that proved well wide of the mark. Lincoln Red Imps advance to the next round on the strength of a ruthlessly clinical display, punishing their hosts despite spending just 11% of the match in possession.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

HT 0–0

⇄ 57'

A. Coulibaly

⇄ C. McKendry

68' ⇄

P. O'Neill

68' ⇄

Yellow Card

71' ▮

M. Lusty Yellow Card

73' ▮

M. Lusty

77' ⇄

J. Simpson ⇄ J. McEneff

77' ⇄

⇄ 78'

▮ 80'

Yellow Card

⚽ 0–1 82'

⚽ 0–2 84'

Yellow Card

87' ▮

Red Card

87' ▮

C. Gallagher Yellow Card

90+1' ▮

▮ 90+3'

Yellow Card

⇄ B. Magee

105' ⇄

⇄ 107'

▮ 119'

Yellow Card

⚽ 0–3 120'

Penalty

C. McKendry

120+1' ⇄

⇄ 120+3'

FT 0–3

Larne

Match Stats

Lincoln Red Imps FC

11% Ball Possession 89%

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

2 Shots on Goal 8

5 Shots off Goal 6

3 Blocked Shots 0

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

7 Corner Kicks 7

0 Offsides 0

12 Fouls 11

3 Yellow Cards 3

1 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Low (49%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Larne oder Unentschieden

Most likely score

1:0 · 15.4%

Both teams to score

40%

Over 2.5 goals

35%

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Larne

WWWWW

Lincoln Red Imps FC

WLLDD

Last 3 meetings Larne · 2W 0D 1L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lincoln Red Imps FC goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	14	7	3	1
1	15	14	4	1
2	12	8	3	1
3	5	4	1
4	2	1
5

↑ Larne goals · most likely 1–0 (15.4%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

28%

Away Win

23%

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS No 40% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

37%

1.5

63%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

28%

Away Win

23%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

74% Home (No Draw) 26% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

25% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

51% Home Scores More 31% Equal Goals 18% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

37%

1.5

63%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

60% BTTS No 40% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

23%

29%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	14.0%	7.3%	3.2%	0.8%	0.1%
1	15.4%	13.8%	4.4%	1.1%	0.2%
2	11.6%	8.4%	3.0%	0.7%	0.1%
3	5.3%	3.8%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%
4	1.8%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

78%

1.5

22%

94%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

43%

35%

17%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Larne	Draw	Lincoln Red Imps FC
Larne	29.0%	3.5%	0.9%
Draw	21.1%	22.0%	8.5%
Lincoln Red Imps FC	1.9%	3.7%	9.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

49%

35%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Larne vs Lincoln Red Imps FC

2 Larne Wins

0 Draws

1 Lincoln Red Imps FC Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
20 Aug 2026	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0 - 2	Larne
29 Aug 2024	Larne	3 - 1	Lincoln Red Imps FC
22 Aug 2024	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2 - 1	Larne

Larne — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Carrick Rangers	W	2 - 5
15 Sep	H Cliftonville FC	W	2 - 0
12 Sep	A Portadown	W	0 - 2
08 Sep	H Bangor	W	1 - 0
04 Sep	H Glentoran	W	2 - 1

Lincoln Red Imps FC — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
27 Aug	A Larne	W	0 - 3
20 Aug	H Larne	L	0 - 2
13 Aug	A Omonia Nicosia	L	1 - 0
06 Aug	H Omonia Nicosia	D	1 - 1
28 Jul	H Mjallby AIF	D	0 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lincoln Red Imps FC

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Juan Bezares

1 Garcia

66 Eersteling

8 Mandi

21 Nano

17 Coulibaly

22 Torrilla

6 Lopes

3 Rutjens

9 Gómez

10 Mula

44 Toledano

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Nauzet Garcia	G
21	Nano	M
8	Mandi	M
66	Julliani Eersteling	D
9	Kike Gómez	F
3	Christian Rutjens	D
6	Bernardo Lopes	D
22	Graeme Torrilla	M
17	Aly Coulibaly	M
44	Manuel Toledano	F
10	Álex Mula	M

Substitutes

32	Facundo Alvarez	F
13	Jaylan Hankins	G
27	Mark Hamm	G
5	Gabri Cardozo	D
20	Ethan Britto	D
4	Nico Pinto	M
11	Alvaro Romero	M
23	Joe	M
7	Lee Casciaro	F

Larne

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Gary Haveron

1 Ferguson

4 Donnelly

3 Ridley

26 Bent

23 Cosgrove

47 Simpson

6 Gallagher

15 Doherty

30 Lusty

9 O'Neill

25 Sloan

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Rohan Ferguson	G
23	Tomas Cosgrove	D
26	Dan Bent	M
3	Matt Ridley	D
4	Aaron Donnelly	D
15	Ronan Doherty	M
6	Chris Gallagher	M
47	James Simpson	M
25	Dylan Sloan	M
9	Paul O'Neill	F
30	Matthew Lusty	F

Substitutes

7	Conor McKendry	M
45	Montel Gibson	F
16	Jacob Carney	G
2	Logan Wallace	D
8	Mark Randall	M
14	Benji Magee	M
17	Joshua Ukek	M
22	Jordan McEneff	M
19	Kevin O'Hara	F