Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prognose
Barcelona vs. Real Madrid Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Barcelona eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 49%, für Real Madrid 31% und für ein Unentschieden 20%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Barcelona secured a commanding El Clásico victory at home, putting the game to bed inside the opening 20 minutes. Marcus Rashford broke the deadlock in the ninth minute, and Ferran Torres doubled the advantage nine minutes later, leaving Real Madrid with a mountain to climb at the interval.
The second half grew increasingly fractious, with four yellow cards issued in a three-minute spell around the hour mark — Dani Olmo and Raúl Asencio booked simultaneously before Jude Bellingham was cautioned shortly after. Both Olmo and Rashford were withdrawn at the 64-minute mark, with further substitutions from both sides shaping the closing stages. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Barcelona win as the most likely outcome at 49%, a call that proved correct.
Despite Real Madrid enjoying eight corner kicks to Barcelona's four and generating eight total shots, they managed just a single shot on target all evening, with the hosts' expected goals figure of 1.01 reflecting their clinical efficiency. Barcelona's 57% possession and seven shots on target told the story of a controlled, professional performance.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Barcelona
Match Stats
Barcelona
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Pau Cubarsí D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 77 (75%) | 2 |
| 7 Ferran Torres F | 7.3 | 77' | 1 | – | 2 | 16 (11%) | – |
| 13 Joan García G | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 27 (25%) | 1 |
| 14 Marcus Rashford M | 7.3 | 64' | 1 | – | 2 | 27 (22%) | – |
| 21 F. de Jong M | 7.3 | 26' | – | – | – | 10 (8%) | 2 |
| 8 Pedri M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 67 (66%) | – |
| 18 Gerard Martín D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 84 (79%) | 1 |
| 2 João Cancelo D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 26 (23%) | 1 |
| 11 Raphinha F | 6.9 | 26' | – | – | 2 | 7 (3%) | 2 |
| 24 Eric García D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 69 (65%) | 1 |
| 20 Dani Olmo M | 6.9 | 64' | – | 1 | 1 | 18 (15%) | – |
| 6 Pablo Gavi M | 6.7 | 77' | – | – | – | 48 (44%) | 3 |
| 16 Fermín López M | 6.7 | 88' | – | – | 1 | 33 (32%) | – |
| 22 Marc Bernal M | 6.6 | 13' | – | – | – | 15 (14%) | – |
| 9 Robert Lewandowski F | 6.3 | 13' | – | – | 1 | 5 (4%) | – |
| 3 Alejandro Balde D | — | 2' | – | – | – | – | – |
Real Madrid
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Eduardo Camavinga M | 7.3 | 70' | – | – | – | 46 (44%) | 3 |
| 21 Brahim Díaz M | 7.0 | 79' | – | – | – | 17 (17%) | – |
| 12 Trent Alexander-Arnold D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 41 (31%) | 3 |
| 1 Thibaut Courtois G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (25%) | – |
| 14 Aurélien Tchouaméni M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 46 (41%) | 1 |
| 45 Thiago Pitarch M | 6.6 | 20' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | 1 |
| 22 Antonio Rüdiger D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 57 (55%) | 1 |
| 30 Franco Mastantuono F | 6.5 | 11' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 38 César Palacios M | 6.5 | 11' | – | – | 1 | 5 (5%) | – |
| 5 Jude Bellingham M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 23 (18%) | 1 |
| 17 Raúl Asencio D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 60 (54%) | – |
| 16 Gonzalo García F | 6.3 | 79' | – | – | 2 | 8 (7%) | – |
| 20 Fran García D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 33 (29%) | – |
| 7 Vinícius Júnior M | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 15 (8%) | – |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Raphinha
12 gls
Lamine Yamal
7 gls
Fermín
4 gls
K. Adeyemi
2 gls
Kylian Mbappé
7 gls
J. Bellingham
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Barcelona vs Real Madrid
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2025 | Real Madrid | 2 - 1 | Barcelona |
| 11 May 2025 | Barcelona | 4 - 3 | Real Madrid |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Real Madrid | 0 - 4 | Barcelona |
Barcelona — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Sevilla | W | 1 - 3 |
| 16 Sep | H Racing Santander | W | 7 - 2 |
| 13 Sep | A Levante | W | 2 - 4 |
| 09 Sep | H Feyenoord | W | 5 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | A Valencia | W | 0 - 5 |
Real Madrid — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A Atletico Madrid | L | 2 - 1 |
| 15 Sep | A Elche | W | 2 - 3 |
| 12 Sep | H Rayo Vallecano | W | 4 - 1 |
| 08 Sep | H Inter | W | 2 - 1 |
| 04 Sep | A Real Betis | L | 1 - 0 |
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 |
Atletico Madrid
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 |
Real Betis
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 |
Real Madrid
|
7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 |
Sevilla
|
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 |
Alaves
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 |
Deportivo La Coruna
|
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 |
Real Sociedad
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 |
Villarreal
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 |
Athletic Club
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |
Getafe
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 |
Osasuna
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |
Celta Vigo
|
7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 15 |
Espanyol
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 |
Racing Santander
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 |
Levante
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 |
Elche
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 |
Valencia
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 |
Malaga
|
7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
Barcelona
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: H. Flick
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | J. Garcia | G |
| 24 | E. Garcia | D |
| 5 | P. Cubarsi | D |
| 18 | G. Martin | D |
| 2 | J. Cancelo | D |
| 6 | Gavi | M |
| 8 | Pedri | M |
| 14 | M. Rashford | M |
| 20 | D. Olmo | M |
| 16 | Fermín | M |
| 7 | F. Torres | F |
Substitutes
| 25 | W. Szczesny | G |
| 33 | E. Aller | G |
| 9 | R. Lewandowski | F |
| 21 | F. de Jong | M |
| 11 | Raphinha | F |
| 23 | J. Kounde | D |
| 4 | R. Araujo | D |
| 19 | R. Bardghji | F |
| 22 | M. Bernal | M |
| 3 | A. Balde | D |
| 17 | M. Casado | M |
| 42 | X. Espart | D |
Real Madrid
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | T. Courtois | G |
| 12 | T. Alexander-Arnold | D |
| 17 | R. Asencio | D |
| 22 | A. Rudiger | D |
| 20 | F. Garcia | D |
| 6 | E. Camavinga | M |
| 14 | A. Tchouameni | M |
| 21 | B. Diaz | M |
| 5 | J. Bellingham | M |
| 7 | Vinicius Junior | M |
| 16 | G. Garcia | F |
Substitutes
| 13 | A. Lunin | G |
| 43 | S. Mestre | G |
| 4 | D. Alaba | D |
| 18 | A. Carreras | D |
| 24 | D. Huijsen | D |
| 35 | D. Jimenez | D |
| 30 | F. Mastantuono | F |
| 38 | C. Palacios | M |
| 45 | T. Pitarch | M |
| 28 | J. Cestero Sancho | M |