Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki Prognose

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

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Motherwell

Home

2 : 0

HT 0 - 0

Hinspiel 1-1 · Gesamt 3-1

HJK Helsinki

Away

KI-Tipp Motherwell oder Unentschieden

48%

26%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Motherwell vs. HJK Helsinki Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Motherwell eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 48%, für HJK Helsinki 26% und für ein Unentschieden 26%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 13 Aug 2026, 20:21.

Match Report

Motherwell secured a comfortable 2–0 victory over HJK Helsinki in their UEFA Europa Conference League third qualifying round tie, with the first half ending goalless despite a yellow card for Alfie Cicale just before the break.

The match turned decisively in Motherwell's favour after the interval, with Ibrahim Said proving the difference. The striker broke the deadlock just two minutes into the second half and then doubled the advantage on the hour mark, completing a brace that effectively ended the contest. HJK struggled to respond, managing just one shot on target despite enjoying seven corner kicks — a stat that underlined Motherwell's defensive solidity on the night. The home side's four shots on target reflected their clinical edge in front of goal.

Both managers turned to their benches as the game progressed, with multiple substitutions from each side in the final quarter. Motherwell held firm to claim a clean sheet and a significant advantage heading into the second leg. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Motherwell win as the most likely outcome at 48%, a call that proved accurate.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 43'

Alfie Cicale Yellow Card

HT 0–0

Ibrahim Said assist: Alex Lowry

47' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 57'

A. Ring Yellow Card

Oscar Priestman ⇄ Olly Whyte

59' ⇄

Ibrahim Said assist: Alex Lowry

60' ⚽ 2–0

Johnny Koutroumbis ⇄ Jamie Knight-Lebel

65' ⇄

Regan Charles-Cook ⇄ Willy Vogt

65' ⇄

⇄ 68'

S. Haarala ⇄ T. Pukki

⇄ 68'

V. Tikkanen ⇄ T. Cissokho

⇄ 68'

M. Borchers

⇄ 75'

A. Ring

Alex Lowry ⇄ Ewan Wilson

78' ⇄

Tawanda Maswanhise ⇄ Mikey Booth

78' ⇄

⇄ 79'

Alfie Cicale ⇄ L. Lappalainen

FT 2–0

Motherwell

Match Stats

HJK Helsinki

50% Ball Possession 50%

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

4 Shots on Goal 1

10 Shots off Goal 6

3 Blocked Shots 3

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

3 Corner Kicks 7

3 Offsides 1

8 Fouls 6

0 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Low (48%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Motherwell oder Unentschieden

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.5%

Both teams to score

59%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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Motherwell

LLLWD

HJK Helsinki

DDWLW

Last 1 meetings Motherwell · 0W 1D 0L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

48%

10%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

26%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

HJK Helsinki goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	7	6	3	1
1	7	13	8	4	1
2	6	9	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	1
4	1	2	1
5

↑ Motherwell goals · most likely 1–1 (13.5%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

26%

Away Win

26%

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

26%

Away Win

26%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

53% Home (No Draw) 47% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

19% Home Win by 2+ 16% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

38% Home Scores More 34% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 42% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

22%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.6%	6.6%	5.6%	2.5%	0.9%
1	7.2%	13.5%	8.1%	3.7%	1.3%
2	6.4%	8.7%	5.9%	2.7%	0.9%
3	3.1%	4.2%	2.9%	1.3%	0.4%
4	1.1%	1.6%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

47%

1.5

53%

76%

2.5

25%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

20%

28%

15%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Motherwell	Draw	HJK Helsinki
Motherwell	21.1%	4.4%	2.2%
Draw	15.5%	17.4%	13.7%
HJK Helsinki	2.6%	4.6%	18.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Motherwell vs HJK Helsinki

0 Motherwell Wins

1 Draws

0 HJK Helsinki Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
06 Aug 2026	HJK Helsinki	1 - 1	Motherwell

Motherwell — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Dundee	L	2 - 1
15 Sep	H Aberdeen	L	0 - 4
05 Sep	A Rangers	L	1 - 0
02 Sep	H Dundee Utd	W	3 - 0
30 Aug	A ST Mirren	D	3 - 3

HJK Helsinki — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Gnistan	D	1 - 1
13 Sep	A KuPS	D	0 - 0
09 Sep	H Inter Turku	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Inter Turku	L	1 - 0
31 Aug	A Ilves	W	1 - 2

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Motherwell

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Alfred Johansson

1 Paulsen

45 Longelo

5 Moormann

3 Girdwood-Reich

22 Koutroumbis

12 Priestman

8 Fadinger

19 Said

17 Charles-Cook

11 Lowry

18 Maswanhise

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Alex Paulsen	G
22	Johnny Koutroumbis	D
3	Jake Girdwood-Reich	D
5	Martin Moormann	D
45	Emmanuel Longelo	D
8	Lukas Fadinger	M
12	Oscar Priestman	M
11	Alex Lowry	M
17	Regan Charles-Cook	F
19	Ibrahim Said	M
18	Tawanda Maswanhise	F

Substitutes

31	Jack McConnell	G
21	Matty Connelly	G
23	Ewan Wilson	D
25	Olly Whyte	M
27	Mikey Booth	M
24	Luca Ross	F
36	Lucas Weir	F
77	Willy Vogt	F

HJK Helsinki

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Joonas Rantanen

44 Marković

13 Simojoki

14 Montano

6 Tikkanen

5 Nallo

8 Mentu

18 Mero

7 Cicale

4 Ring

29 Haarala

9 Borchers

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
44	Matej Marković	G
5	Amara Nallo	D
6	Ville Tikkanen	D
14	Leonel Montano	D
13	Kaius Simojoki	D
18	Toivo Mero	M
8	Pyry Mentu	M
29	Santeri Haarala	F
4	Alexander Ring	M
7	Alfie Cicale	M
9	Mads Borchers	F

Substitutes

1	Jesse Öst	G
12	Mitja Haapanen	G
28	Miska Ylitolva	D
3	Till Cissokho	D
22	Liam Möller	M
32	Mouhamed Gueye	M
17	Martin Kirilov	M
15	Jere Kallinen	M
20	Teemu Pukki	F